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2025 Annual State Fair Polls

by | Aug 29, 2025 |

Minnesota Report

Once again, we provide you the State Fair Polls, which historically, we have learned these questions will often become issues for consideration in each body, and potentially legislation during the forthcoming legislative session. The results will be available on the respective legislative websites and we will also provide them here.

Minnesota House of Representatives – 2025 State Fair Poll

Question 1
Should school districts be permanently allowed to start classes before Labor Day?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 2
Should state funds be used to renovate or build professional sports stadiums or arenas in Minnesota?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 3
Should undocumented immigrants be prohibited from accessing state programs?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 4
Should hourly school workers be eligible to receive unemployment during the summer?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 5
State law currently allows people with a permit to carry to bring a gun inside the State Capitol. Should guns be banned in the building?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 6
The state is projected to face a nearly $6 billion deficit in the 2028–29 biennium. In general, what is your preferred way to balance the state budget in a time of shortfall?

  • Increase revenue
  • Decrease spending
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 7
Should candidates for the Legislature appear on the ballot without their political party designation?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 8
Minnesota provides free breakfast and lunch for all students. Should access to free meals be limited to families earning $150,000 or less a year?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 9
Should Minnesotans age 65 and older be allowed to receive a free fishing license?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 10
Should cities and counties be allowed to prohibit cannabis businesses in their community?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 11
Should legislators be banned from acting or registering as lobbyists for two years after leaving office?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 12
Minnesota’s highest tax rate is currently 9.85% for married couples earning at least $330,411 or single filers earning at least $198,631. Should the state institute a higher income tax rate for its highest earners?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Minnesota Senate – 2025 State Fair Poll

Demographic Question I
What area best describes where you live?

  • Minneapolis / Saint Paul
  • Rural
  • Suburban
  • A regional hub of at least 40,000 people (Rochester, Duluth, Saint Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead)
  • Another part of the state
  • I prefer not to answer

Demographic Question II
What is your age?

  • 17 or younger
  • 18–24
  • 25–34
  • 35–49
  • 50–64
  • 65 or older
  • I prefer not to answer

Question 1
Should the legislature pass a new law to prohibit cat declawing?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 2
Some Minnesota state agencies have established offices to independently oversee and investigate fraud programs administered by that agency. Should the legislature create a new state agency dedicated to investigating fraud, waste, and abuse across all state agencies?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 3
Should it be illegal for Minnesota employers to use artificial intelligence (AI) hiring tools in lieu of more traditional labor-intensive recruiting, screening, and interviewing methods?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 4
Under current law, IT equipment and software purchased for use in certain data centers is exempt from Minnesota sales tax. A data center may benefit from the sales tax exemption for up to 35 years. Do you support this tax benefit for data centers?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 5
Under current law, the owner of an agricultural crop or pasture may be compensated by the state for damages to that acreage caused by wild elk. Should this program be expanded to include damage caused by wild deer?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 6
For-profit social media platform businesses operating in Minnesota pay taxes on their businesses’ taxable income and sales in Minnesota. Should the state create an additional new tax on these businesses based on the number of Minnesota consumers from whom the businesses collect personal data?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 7
Currently, vacancies in the Minnesota legislature are filled only through special elections, which can leave districts unrepresented for a period of time. Should the governor have the authority to appoint a temporary replacement until the special election takes place?

  • Yes
  • Yes, but the governor must appoint a person from the same political party as the last person who held the office
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 8
Students in kindergarten through grade 12 who attend nonpublic schools or homeschools are eligible to receive certain publicly-funded materials and services, including textbooks and other educational materials, pupil support services, health services, and transportation. Should the state continue spending public funds on these services and materials for nonpublic students?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 9
Under current law, non-licensed hourly school employees such as bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and paraprofessionals are not allowed to receive state-funded unemployment benefits during the summer when school is not in session. Should the legislature change state law to exclude this restriction and allow school employees to qualify for unemployment benefits year-round?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided/No opinion

Question 10
Currently, cities may pass local zoning ordinances allowing duplexes, triplexes, or ADU (e.g. mother-in-law suites) on lots zoned for single-family residences. Should the legislature enact statewide laws requiring all cities to approve these types of dwellings on lots currently zoned for single-family units?

  • Yes
  • No
  • Undecided

Donald Trump is an Idiot, and He Can’t Count

by | Aug 26, 2025 |

National & Minnesota Report

We learned long ago to “Beware the Unititended Consequences”, but Donald J Trump’s (R) most recent bout showing his (lack of) brilliance, while he sports a hat making an unfounded, contrary statement, (Trump was Always Right About Everything) consists of, choosing the determination of those allowed to be counted in the census, based only on citizenship. It’s down right dumb. Only counting those American citizens or like his wife Melania, a naturalized person, effectively limits those whose made it across the bar and are countable is fricking stupid.

If Trump could actually count, the US House districts effected by undocumented immigrants will be reduced in size significantly and the whole map of the 435 US House district shifts. Its like Jenga.

The census reads: Article I, Section 2, decennial census (a headcount every 10 years) to apportion representatives among states and for other purposes. This enumeration of “persons” every 10 years is conducted “in such Manner as [Congress] shall by Law direct”. The census determines how many seats each state gets in the House of Representatives and is used for redistricting, as well as for distributing federal funds to communities.

So this means, the numbers shown, in 2023, provide the US unauthorized immigrant population reached a record high of 14 million, with a significant portion residing in states like California, Texas, and Florida. While these three states accounted for 56% of the total unauthorized immigrant population in 2023, other states with notable populations included New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. 

State-by-state breakdown of unauthorized immigrants based on 2023 estimates are: 

If these are starter numbers, and then applying the political aspects to these numbers, 4.275 million people are represented by Democrats and 3.70 million by Republicans. Now, if we extrapolate these numbers across the nation it gets more interesting, but not as informative. Why, because not every state is as partisan driven or, a place as dogmatically or as slavenly tied to Trump, or at least we hope not.

This is significant, because, again the states decide their own application of voting and their own determination of voting districts within the confides of their own state boundaries. The jurisdictions are defined by the respective state legislatures and again it is determined by the majorities in each.

We have only reflected the House districts numerically, but guess what, the voter have their own minds and can make different things happen. Historically, the party in power of the presidency losses 26 seats in the mid-term elections. Hopefully, that holds true. If the maps are shifted in the mid-term it could change or even be exasperated.

As goes Texas, which currently at a 25 to 13 on a Republican/Democratic split. Compared to California, which is has 52 representatives: 43 Democrat/9 Republican. If this pursuit follows, New York is represented by 26 members of Congress, 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Illinois has Democrats and 3 Republicans, but its not a game, like Dominos.

If you reduce the number of people, state-by-state, the size of the districts shift and the impact of southern states lessen.

Its just simple math.

Will Walz Seek Reelection?

by | Aug 26, 2025 |

Minnesota Report

Good Question. We believe it is not likely. Why because Governor Tim Walz (DFL) doesn’t need the job, as we previously expressed, he has three pensions, so he is fine financially.

So what does his decision mean? We declare its Domino Theory, he moves out and others move in and they fall accordingly. In 2025, the pieces move like those on a chess board for 2026.

Now, rumors abound, if Walz is out US Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) moves in and Walz moves back to Washington DC,. Its a random, but an option. The problem with this idea is Klobuchar whether or not wants to leave DC, especially when she is high up of the leadership scale.

If the Senator were to be interested and make the move and win then the Governor could appoint Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (DFL) to the open seat, State Senate President Bobby Jo Champion (DFL-58, Minneapolis) would move over to Lt Governor, and Congresswoman Angie Craig (D-MN02) would have an unchallenged path to the other Senate seat on November 3, 2026.

This begs the question of who her running mate would be, or if the scenario were to be, Walz seeks reelection, who his running mate would be. Some speculation St Paul Mayor Melvin Carter III. If this were to be true, then does Carter bow out of his bid for reelection?

No matter what, Walz’ decision is, it impacts the political landscape one-way or another.

Walz has said his decision will occur right after the State Fair, so stay tuned.

Why St Paul is So Messed Up Financially?

by | Aug 26, 2025 |

Mineesota Report

This is our opinion and go ahead and sue us. Jim Cockerall, through Madison Equities and screwed St Paul. He through and through, with the acquisitions of properties such as the Lowery Building, the building which housed the Hat Trick bar, the building where World of Beer was located, and Park Square Plaza, are now all vacant. His operation, played the role as a bottom feeder and utilized a poverty based system started by Norm Coleman (R), Tax Increment Financing (TIF) when the Capitol City had a robust downtown, which at the time, performed even better than Minneapolis. Now, this wrongly headed system is sucking the life out of the downtown of St Paul and benefiting only an affluent at the expense of all of the other property taxpayers to the tune of 40% of the tax base.

St Paul is dying and nearly dead and it is something being managed by an inadequate person, in the case of Melvin Carter III (DFL). He’s out of his league. Sure, he is a good cheerleader, but poor leader. Many believe he is only seeking a rung up the political ladder.

If he is so good, why is a former staffer, and political aide, Kaohly Her (DFL), challenging him? Is this just a set-up? Is this just inside baseball, are we being played?

Well, we’ll see once it all plays out. Watch and see.

Here is Our Offering to St Paul

by | Aug 26, 2025 |

Minnesota Report

Here is Our Offering to St Paul

Checks & Balances was born in St Paul, and we care about the Capitol City and so we created something for you to see. It’s intended to make a mockery of the current administration and diminish the substandard leadership. We now render a strict condemnation of the Melvin Carter III administration as bad from the start and poor at the finish, and overall just pathetic.

Our publisher Shawn Towle, helped him to achieve the mayoral position and now truly regrets the assistance given. We say, Just Go Away.

To this end, we have produced a video for your enjoyment and encourage you to share it broadly. Help this story get legs.

Click on the link to view.

Click on the link to view.

Field of Candidates in St Paul Mayoral Race Continue to Grow

by | Jul 25, 2025 |

Minnesota Report

Yesterday, we learned State Representative Kaohly Her (DFL-64A, St Paul) is committed to file for mayor of the Capitol City when the filing opens on April 29th. She is a four-term legislator, Hmong woman, who had the fortune to be in the right place at the right time in 2018, when Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) received the DFL endorsement and began her unsuccessful bid for Governor, falling to Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN01).

In this instance, Her’s bid is a direct affront to the incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL-St Paul) and politically, they share the left lane. If the two of them carve up this path, and as we speculate the political landscape, in even a community like St Paul, is changing. Now, because her job is listed as a a Saint Paul, Minnesota (Policy Director), we are unclear as to what this entails but there are references to her working in this capacity directly for Carter. Its clear something must have transpired between the two if she seeks to challenge her old boss.

We also see her campaign slogan being as simple as Vote for Her.

As we understand, the pending field now includes Yan Chen (DFL-St Paul), a pragmatic, and fiscally-responsible Democrat, University of Minnesota Biophysics researcher, a landlord in residential housing and Chinese immigrant, and Mike Hilborn, a businessman and self-declared Independent, who ran as a Republican for the state House in 2024. We have heard other potential names, but at this time, these are the only people making moves.

The question over the impact of Ranked Choice Voting, and its cummulative effect, as the votes are reallocated, will provide an interesting spate of tabulations. A simplistic view of the field is Carter v Three (Her, Chen, and Hilborn) and this could set the stage for a novel approach to the system and something we abhor, the idea of collusion campaigning.

If there is a more moderate, or even conservative sentiment occurring, it might be a reflection of Donald J Trump’s (R) influence, but not likely, it probably is a result of the negative perception extending from the alt-left agenda of entities like the Democratic Socialists, and the challenges emanating from transgender inclusion in girl’s and women’s sports. These realities are some of the challenges facing a party overly focused on social issues rather than pocketbook issues.

We have learned of analysis by the DFL Party, which has growing concerns of significant loses in its base in the Twin Cities. They have numbers reflecting this, showing a 40% loss in Minneapolis in the DFL voting base and 30% in St Paul. If these two candidates carve up the left side of the formula, it leaves room for other candidacies.

Now, one issue of which we have been exposed is the ludicrous idea of putting an elevated bicycle path on both sides of Summit Avenue. One major feature being the destruction of over 900 boulevard trees and a redevelopment of the cities, sewer and water system. This coupled with a property tax increase of 25% on the homes on Summit to pay for the project. It’s clear, this is an idea needs to go back to the drawing board and get another look and analysis, especially, since the proposal lacks any reflection of the changes in none automobile transportation. The increased use of electric bicycles and scooters—which as transportation vehicles, should not be allowed on bicycle paths—is something worth serious consideration.

The state of affairs in St Paul is dismal. It downtown is a wasteland, businesses a fleeing. The loss of the Lunds/Beyerlys downtown is a direct example of the decay caused by shoplifting, lack of law enforcement, and unmitigated urban decay caused by the rampant drug use of Fentanyl and Methamphetamine. Additionally, the Midway Cub Foods is set to close due to theft of shopping carts, and shoplifting. Anyone pushing a shopping cart off of the cite to which it belongs, is a perpetrator and warrants a citation. If the pockets of homelessness and the gatherings of the drug crowd are not squelched it will be hard to reclaim the streets of St Paul from the users over then needs of the productive members of society.

We call for Zero Tolerance for any public drug use, and even believe allowance of smoking Marijuana should be curtailed to designated areas outside of one’s home. No more walking down the street with a blunt. Drinking and eating cannabis products are fine, but no more public smoking.

Trump: The Illusion of Strength, the Reality of Decline

by | Jul 22, 2025 |

National & Minnesota Report

Donald J Trump (R) has carefully curated a brand of dominance, vitality, and so-called “alpha masculinity.” But the image has always been manufactured, and now—under the weight of age, indictments, and cognitive erosion—it is visibly collapsing.

Here, we offer a contrast between Trump’s projected image and his demonstrated behavior, using his own rhetoric against him, and highlighting the reality that he is physically frail, intellectually disengaged, and increasingly incoherent.

1. Trump Attempts to Project Strength — but Shows Physical and Cognitive Decline
  • “Look at him. He can’t walk up a ramp. He’s not well.”

— Trump on Joe Biden, 2020

Reality Check:

  • In June 2020, Trump struggled to descend a ramp at West Point, visibly shuffling and unable to lift a glass of water with one hand—prompting widespread speculation about his own physical fitness.
  • Trump’s gait has been slow and stiff at multiple public events, including his Mar-a-Lago speeches, and observers note increasing difficulty with articulation.
  • We now see Trump suffering from precisely what he once weaponized against Biden.
2. Trump Derides Cognitive Decline – While Forgetting Names, Repeating Rants
“We need a president with all their faculties. Joe doesn’t know what state he’s in.”
— Trump, 2020 rally

Reality Check:

  • In 2024 campaign rallies, Trump:
    • Confused Barack Obama with Joe Biden multiple times
    • Claimed the US is fighting World War II
    • Forgot the name of his own doctor
    • Repeated stories nearly word-for-word across events, often losing track of thought mid-sentence
    • This is not rhetorical repetition. This is a man struggling to maintain coherence.

We clearly remember during the COVID pronouncement in 2019, we sat waiting for it and it occurred when he said, We need “Herd Mentality.” Not Herd Immunity. https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-again-says-virus-will-disappear-discusses-herd-mentality-91870277755

3. Trump Brands Himself a Vital Alpha — While Avoiding Work and Exercise

  • “I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things.”

— Trump, 2016 interview

Reality Check:

  • Trump has never released full medical records, unlike other modern presidents.
  • Former White House physician Dr Ronny Jackson was pressured to falsify records to inflate Trump’s weight and health metrics.
  • He has admitted to never exercising, claiming the body has “a finite amount of energy.”
  • He reportedly watches up to 8 hours of television daily, consumes fast food obsessively, and rarely reads briefing materials.
  • We must ask: Is this the profile of a “vital” leader—or a man dangerously disengaged from the duties of office?

4. Trump Markets Himself as Tough — Yet Hid COVID, Endangered Others

  • “I didn’t want to cause panic.”

— Trump, after downplaying COVID-19 in 2020

Reality Check:

  • Trump contracted COVID in October 2020 and knowingly exposed others, including Secret Service agents, White House staff, and debate attendees, while actively contagious.
  • He relied on experimental treatments not available to ordinary Americans, while telling the public not to worry.
  • The event became a superspreader disaster, showing both recklessness and cowardice.
  • This is not toughness. This is negligence masked as bravado.
5. Trump Presents Himself as a Patriot — But Sided with Autocrats, Insulted Vets
“I like people who weren’t captured.”— Trump, on John McCain

Reality Check:

  • Called American soldiers “suckers” and “losers” (confirmed by multiple sources including Trump’s own Chief of Staff John Kelly).
  • Admired Vladimir Putin, even as Russia attacked American elections and invaded Ukraine.
  • Said of January 6th insurrectionists: “They were very special.”
  • No true patriot excuses domestic terrorism, sides with foreign dictators, or insults the sacrifices of the military.
CONCLUSION: The Emperor Has No Stamina

Trump is no strongman. He is a television character, desperately re-running old scripts while his mind and body deteriorate under the spotlight he so desperately craves.

  • He is a megalomaniac, unable to share power or admit error.
  • He is intellectually lazy, governing by instinct, not understanding.
  • He is physically compromised, hiding fatigue and frailty under layers of performance.

And now, we watch as the man who mocked Joe Biden’s age begins to mirror the very vulnerabilities he once derided—only without the humility, decency, or public service record Biden brought to the Oval Office.

THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: A SHARP DIVIDE BETWEEN DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES AND REPUBLICAN POSTURING: An Analysis of Winners, Losers, and the Political Fallout

by | Jul 22, 2025 |

National, Arizona, California, Nebraska, New York & Pennsylvannia Report

The passage of the what Donald J Trump (R) dubbed as the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) and Democrats call the Big, Bunch of Bullshit, has thrown a stark spotlight on the deep ideological fault lines dividing America’s two major political parties. Sold by Republicans as a “populist financial reset,” the bill has instead ignited fury across the conservative base, and celebration across progressive circles. We are not fooled by the branding: though championed by Republicans in Congress, the BBB delivers victories that align directly with the Democratic platform—student loan forgiveness, income-based repayment caps, and progressive taxation.

What follows is a thorough breakdown of who wins, who loses, and which vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts may face their political end for backing this Trojan Horse of liberal reform.

A PARTY DIVIDED: RHETORIC VS. REALITY

Republican Rhetoric:
Republicans pitched the bill as a populist rebalancing of America’s economic engine—”pro-worker,” “anti-elite,” and “fiscally disciplined.” But the bill increases federal spending by nearly $480 billion over ten years, caps loan interest at 1.5%, and forgives debt for over 14 million borrowers—hallmarks of policies once mocked as “socialism.” In the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Build Back Better (BBB) Act, would increase the national debt by roughly $3.0 trillion over ten years, including interest costs, according to a June 2025 report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 

Democratic Reaction:
The Democratic electorate, see this legislation as a long-overdue victory—delivered in Republican wrapping paper. While we are acutely aware that no Democrat voted for the bill (due to partisan gridlock), its content is unmistakably Democratic in nature. We welcome it and will campaign on its success, even as Republican incumbents try to justify their role in its passage.

WHO WINS

Income Bracket: Under $75,000/year

  • Benefits:
    • $10,000–$20,000 in loan forgiveness
    • 1.5% interest cap on new and refinanced federal loans
    • Monthly repayment capped at 5% of income
    • Penalties eliminated for defaulted loans
    • Although it also brings forward limits on the size of future loans, meaning a potential adverse impact on people seeking advanced degrees, like doctors and lawyers regardless of demographics.
  • Demographic Impact:
    • Black and Latino borrowers
    • First-generation students
    • Borrowers in urban centers like Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Chicago
  • Verdict: WINNERS

Income Bracket: $75,000–$125,000/year

  • Benefits:
    • Partial loan forgiveness depending on family size
    • Lower interest and new “college savings matching” credit for future students
    • Cap on repayments
  • Demographic Impact:
    • Young professionals
    • Middle-class parents saving for college
    • Residents of suburban swing districts
  • Verdict: WINNERS

Income Bracket: $125,000–$250,000/year

  • Benefits:
    • No direct forgiveness, but may refinance at 1.5%
    • College savings tax credits phased out
    • Higher tax burden due to elimination of itemized deductions on passive income
  • Verdict: MIXED BAG

Income Bracket: Over $250,000/year

  • Cost:
    • 2.5% surtax on capital gains
    • Removal of carried interest loopholes
    • Broadened investment income tax coverage
    • Stripped real estate depreciation shields
  • Demographic Impact:
    • High-income earners in Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and wealthy suburbs
    • Venture capitalists, corporate executives, hedge fund managers
  • Verdict: LOSERS

WHO LOSES POLITICALLY: REPUBLICANS IN SWING DISTRICTS

These incumbents voted for the Big Beautiful Bill, and now face dual fire: scorn from the MAGA base and sharp Democratic challengers ready to hang this “liberal” vote around their neck.

Representative Mike Garcia (R, CA-27)

  • District: Biden +12
  • Voter Sentiment: Latino-heavy district applauds student debt relief; base conservatives call it a betrayal
  • Status: Highly Vulnerable

Representative Don Bacon (R, NE-02)

  • District: Omaha suburbs, Biden +6
  • Voter Sentiment: College-educated suburbanites supportive; GOP base furious
  • Status: Likely Challenger from Far Right

Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-01)

  • District: Philly suburbs, Biden +5
  • Voter Sentiment: Moderates support the bill; GOP primary voters may not
  • Status: Swing Seat at Risk

Representative Marc Molinaro (R, NY-19)

  • District: D+2
  • Voter Sentiment: Young voters energized; Republican voters feel misled
  • Status: Toss-Up

Representative David Valadao (R, CA-22)

  • District: Majority Latino, Biden +13
  • Voter Sentiment: Student loan reform wildly popular among local families
  • Status: Dead Man Walking

Representative Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-06)

  • District: Tucson suburbs, Biden +0.1
  • Voter Sentiment: Narrow electorate could turn blue with high youth turnout
  • Status: Battleground Flip Alert

DEMOCRATIC POPULAR OPINION

Across the Democratic base—from grassroots organizers to Congressional leaders—this bill is seen as validation of their long-standing platform:

  • Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): “They passed our ideas without our names on them. We’ll take the win and remind voters who planted the seeds.”
  • Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY14): “It doesn’t matter who signed the bill—what matters is that working families finally caught a break.”

Polling among Democratic voters shows broad support for the bill’s key provisions:

  • 79% support loan forgiveness up to $20,000
  • 85% support interest caps on federal loans
  • 67% support taxing capital gains to pay for it

CONCLUSION: THE POLITICAL CROSSROADS

The BBB is a case study in political inversion. Republicans passed legislation filled with Democratic substance, and now Democrats will reap the electoral benefits, especially in suburban swing districts with large populations of student borrowers.

Some See These as the Winners:

  • Low- and middle-income borrowers
  • Public school teachers, nurses, social workers
  • Democratic challengers in swing districts
  • Progressive economic policy

Others See These as the Losers:

  • High-net-worth individuals
  • Passive investors
  • GOP incumbents in Biden-won districts
  • The Republican Party’s illusion of ideological purity

As the 2026 midterms approach, Democrats will remind voters of one simple truth:
They passed our ideas in their bill. So, we’ll take the credit.

Democratic Campaign Strategy Memo — 2026 Midterms

by | Jul 22, 2025 |

National, Arizona, California, Nebraska, New York & Pennsylvania Report

Target Audience: Student Voters, Recent Graduates, Young Professionals, and Working-Class Parents
Objective: Leverage the Big Beautiful Bill to Flip Republican-Held Swing Seats

CORE STRATEGIC PREMISE

The Republican Party passed a Democratic bill. Their swing-district incumbents voted for it. We will campaign on it—and win because of it.

Though not a single Democrat voted for the BBB due to procedural blockage and lack of genuine negotiation, its core provisions mirror our platform. We must now:

  • Claim ideological authorship
  • Tie the benefit directly to Democratic values
  • Expose Republican vulnerability in key districts

CORE MESSAGING PILLARS

1.“They Voted Our Values—We Deliver the Future”

“We fought for debt relief. They finally gave in. Let’s make sure the right people get credit.”

Position the bill as a Democratic policy win pushed forward due to years of pressure from:

  • Young voters
  • The progressive base
  • Democratic leaders like Sens Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and AOC

Make clear that Republican votes were reactive, not visionary.

2. “The Big Beautiful Bill Wasn’t Their Idea”

“Don’t let them lie. We’ve been fighting for these policies for a decade.”

Educate voters that:

  • Republicans only supported debt relief after polling showed massive youth support
  • The mechanisms—interest caps, forgiveness thresholds, income-based repayment—mirror Biden-era proposals
  • Their passage of this bill was damage control, not leadership

3. “Take the Win—Now Elect the People Who Fought For You”

  • “You got $20,000 in relief. Now vote for the party that believed in you before it was politically safe.”

Directly engage student voters and working families with:

  • Targeted email and SMS campaigns: “Got student loan relief? You’re welcome.”
  • TikTok and Instagram reels: “Wanna know who REALLY canceled your debt?”
  • Campus organizing: “You voted in 2024. You got results. Let’s finish the job.”

PRIORITY TARGET DISTRICTS & MESSAGE ANGLES

District Incumbent Messaging Focus Dem Challenger Target
CA-27 Rep Mike Garcia (R) Latino working families, CSU students College affordability + immigration justice
NE-02 Rep Don Bacon (R) Omaha college and med school students “Fake moderate” accountability framing
PA-01 Rep Brian Fitzpatrick (R) Suburban parents, young commuters Tie to Biden values, student-first messaging
NY-19 Rep Marc Molinaro (R) SUNY students, Hudson Valley voters “Marc votes blue when it’s safe for him”
CA-22 Rep David Valadao (R) Central Valley borrowers “You paid your way, he bought your vote”
AZ-06 Rep Juan Ciscomani (R) Latino and military family students Frame as opportunist, not reformer

TACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Localize the Win

  • Mailers with “Here’s what you got—and who wanted to stop it”
  • QR-coded flyers with individualized loan calculator tools
  • Use local universities and community colleges as campaign hubs

2. Aggressive Contrast Advertising

  • Target Republican incumbents with ads like: “Rep. Garcia voted to cancel your debt—only after opposing it for years. Next time, elect someone who doesn’t need a poll to do the right thing.”

3. Earned Media Blitz

  • Letters to the editor from borrowers: “Thank you, Democrats. No thanks to my Congressman.”
  • Radio and podcast interviews with local graduates
  • Campus op-eds from young Democrats
POLLING DATA TO SUPPORT YOUR PUSH
Policy Element Democrat Support Independent Support Republican Support
Student loan forgiveness up to $20K 91% 68% 43%
Interest caps on student loans 94% 72% 55%
Income-driven repayment at 5% 89% 76% 50%
Tax increase on capital gains over $250K 84% 61% 33%

Source: Pew Research + Brookings + Navigator Research, June 2025

Trump Polling Numbers in Key States Falter

by | Jun 26, 2020 |

National and Minnesota Report Yesterday, articles in the New York Times and the Washington Post spelled good news for the former Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign (D). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html...

Senate Bonding Then and Now (2018 v 2020)

by | Jun 17, 2020 |

Minnesota Report Two years ago, the Republican controlled State Senate brought forward it’s Capitol Investment Bill, which failed to pass on a party line vote of 34-33, seven votes short of the 2/3rds majority of 41 votes. What is interesting I what the Republicans...

Minnesota Department of Health COVID-19 Page

by | Apr 6, 2020 |

Minnesota Report On Friday, Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) along with Commissioner Jan Malcolm released the State of Minnesota’s comprehensive COVID-19 page on the Department of Health’s Website. Additionally, the MN House also has a page which provides more and...

Trump’s Continued Call for Hydroxychloroquine

by | Apr 6, 2020 |

National Report In spite of not having scientific support for his position Donald J Trump (R) continues to put forward his contention that the use of Hydroxychloroquine a drug for Malaria and Lupus and Erythromycin a drug for bacterial infections as a panacea to the...

Walz Executive Orders During Pandemic

by | Apr 1, 2020 |

Minnesota Report As we are in the midst of the second week of the Stay at Home Executive Order 20-20 more orders are coming from Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) to stipulate what options are available to our state’s citizens. Today, Executive Order 20-25 Authorizing Peace...

The Coming of the Four Horsemen

by | Dec 13, 2018 | ,

If you want to be memorable in Minnesota State Capitol politics it is good if you are referred to as something other than your name. It is often helpful when a term or a phrase can be applied to your, group, issue or initiative. If you want to be known as something...

2018 House State Fair Poll

by | Sep 7, 2018 |

Minnesota Report We at Checks & Balances are continuing our tradition of publishing the State Fair Polls found at the State Fair booths in the Education Building. Again, as we have said before, these provide an insight into the mindset and the issues of interest...

2018 Senate State Fair Poll

by | Sep 7, 2018 |

Minnesota Report State Senate  2016 State Fair Poll Questions (Choose one answer per question)   Demographics Residence Minneapolis/St. Paul Rural Suburban Regional hub of at least 40,000 people (Rochester, Duluth, St. Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead) Another state No...

Candidates Wolgamott and Ek are Each, Seeking a Shot at Redemption

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Minnesota Report In December of 2005, the MN Supreme Court Ruled House Candidate Sue Ek (R-MN) ineligible as a candidate for the House seat 15B, do to her failure to reside in the district 60-days prior to the filing period. This means the highest court in our state,...

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Leadership Shuffles

Sep 7, 2021 |

Minnesota Report First, it was the rapid one-week ouster of Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan, then the announcement by Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka (R-09, Nisswa) leaving the leadership post and not seeking reelection, followed by the more surprising...

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