News Releases
Walz Announces Reelection Bid
Minnesota Report
Today, Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) announced his unprecedented third term for office. He announced his reelection via a Youtube video. This effort will be a climb, but it might be easier if the Republicans nominate a weak candidate. Here are the current spate of candidates (10 Republicans and one gadfly DFL candidate) filed to contest Walz- Thomas Evenstad (R-MN), Scott Mitchell Jensen (R-MN), Jeff Johnson (R-MN), Adam J Kedrowski (R-MN), Brad Kohler (R-MN), Calvin Larson Jr (R-MN), Hannah P Nicollet (R-MN), Phillip Parrish (R-MN), Kendall Qualls (R-MN), Kristin Robbins (R-MN), Harley Swarm (R-MN) and Ole Savior (DFL-MN).
Initially, in 2018, Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R-MN) lost to Walz with 42.43% to 53.84%. In 2022, State Senator Dr Scott Jensen (R-MN) fell to with 44.61% compared to Walz’ 52.27%. These races have not been landslides by any measure.
This go round he will no longer have Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN), since she is making her own bid for the US Senate. We are hearing a connection to Melissa Hortman’s district as a possible running mate in Brooklyn Park Mayor Hollies J. Winston (DFL). He has shown himself to be a forward thinking person, who has vigorously addressed crime in his community.
The climb will be uphill, but the slough will be a test of Walz’ personal mettle.
Reports of Russia Drones in Poland is a Significant Threat to NATO
International, National & Minnesota Report
Major international news outlets — including The Wall Street Journal, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, and Reuters — are reporting on a serious security incident in Eastern Europe: Yesterday Poland temporarily shut down four of its airports — Warsaw Chopin, Modlin, Rzeszów–Jasionka, and Lublin — due to a significant airspace violation involving Russian drones.
The drones, reportedly launched from Belarus, are believed to be Geran-style reconnaissance UAVs, potentially Geran-2 (also known as “Gerbera”) variants. Unlike the explosive-laden Iranian Shahed drones used in Ukraine, these models appear to have been equipped primarily for surveillance purposes — likely to test NATO’s readiness and response thresholds.
The Polish Air Force responded swiftly, scrambling fighter jets and successfully intercepting and shooting down several of the drones. Notably, Poland received unexpected support from Belarusian sources who reportedly jammed the drones’ GPS signals — suggesting internal tensions or a covert gesture of de-escalation. Additionally, Italian aircraft were deployed to provide air support, highlighting the coordinated readiness among NATO allies.
This incursion underscores growing concerns about Russian attempts to probe NATO defenses, and it may serve as a strategic test of alliance cohesion. As such, it renews calls for NATO members — including the United States — to invoke Article 5, (the collective defence clause, stating that an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all, triggering each other member to assist the attacked nation) consultations to address the security of member states under threat.
This moment also intensifies diplomatic pressure regarding ongoing negotiations with Russia. There should be no ambiguity: Ukraine’s territorial integrity must remain non-negotiable, including Crimea. Concessions to Moscow would only embolden further aggression.
At this pivotal moment, US leadership must project resolve. Donald J Trump (R) should demonstrate a serious commitment to NATO’s collective defense principles and present a credible deterrent posture. America’s credibility on the world stage demands more than rhetoric; it demands action, unity, and clarity.
Walz Expected to Announce His Campaign Plans Next Week
Minnesota Report
Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) will announce his intentions for 2026 next week, So far there are not any early indicators, other than the veritable weakness of the field of Republicans, which have not won a statewide election since 2006.
The New House Leader is Zack Stephenson
Minnesota Report
After multiple rounds of voting, Rep Zack Stephenson (DFL–35A, Coon Rapids) has been elected to lead the DFL House Caucus. Whether he will serve as House Minority Leader or co-lead the chamber alongside Rep Harry Niska (R–31A, Ramsey) remains to be determined — a question that now rests in the hands of voters in the late Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman’s former district, HD 34B.
A special election for the pivotal seat will be held on November 4th, and the outcome could shift the balance of power in the Minnesota House. The race features Xp Lee, a state employee and current Brooklyn Park City Council member running as the DFL candidate, and Ruth Bittner, a Republican real estate agent also based in Brooklyn Park.
Stephenson, a lawyer by training, is widely regarded as a skilled legislative strategist. A close confidant of Hortman, he played a central role in advancing key policy priorities during her tenure — most notably leading the effort to legalize adult-use cannabis in Minnesota. His election signals both continuity and competence within the DFL ranks.
One particular aspect of his leadership we applaud is his intention to continue Hortman’s suburban-forward strategy, a cornerstone of DFL prior legislative success and an approach we have long supported. Now, in an increasingly polarized political landscape, strong suburban leadership rooted in pragmatism and policy discipline remains essential for effective governance in Minnesota.
Eight-Week Campaign Finance Reports in St Paul
Minnesota Report
With the conclusion of St. Paul’s pre-election campaign finance reporting period, the “money primary” has officially closed. As expected, Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL) leads the field in fundraising — but a closer look at the data reveals more than just raw numbers. His support appears to be heavily institutional, powered by establishment backers and deep political roots.
Carter 8-week pre-election report.
Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL)
|
Total contributions under $50 |
$5,784.40 |
|
Total contributions equal to or over $50 |
$210, 385.60 |
|
Expenditures |
$41,658.22 |
|
Account Balance (as of report end date) |
$212,715.77 |
Carter’s hosted a major fundraiser on September 9th at the home of his parents — former Ramsey County Commissioner, now Metropolitan Council member, Toni Carter (DFL) and retired St. Paul police officer Melvin Carter II. Based on the sponsor list, additional financial momentum is expected in future reports.
As an incumbent, Carter’s dominance in fundraising comes as no surprise. In a city where individual campaign contributions are capped at $1,000 per person, achieving six-figure totals requires broad and motivated networks — something Carter clearly retains. Yet, his financial strength contrasts sharply with growing dissatisfaction from many residents, particularly after his recent Budget Address, which proposed a 5.3% increase in the property tax levy.
Critics argue this increase unfairly burdens low- and middle-income homeowners, especially in economically challenged neighborhoods, while downtown St. Paul continues to struggle with visible decay and stalled revitalization. Notably, the mayor moved out of the city’s core several years ago, relocating to Ward 7 — a decision that some residents interpret as distancing from the city’s most pressing urban problems.
We encourage you to view our parody of the devastation in downtown of St Paul.
Yan Chen (DFL-St Paul)
|
Total contributions under $50 |
$906 |
|
Total contributions equal to or over $50 |
$156,203 |
|
Expenditures |
$115,338 |
|
Account Balance (as of report end date) |
$28,442 |
While Chen‘s eight week pre-election report shows strong financial activity, there are notable inconsistencies between reported contributions and expenditures — suggesting the likely presence of self-financing, which has yet to be fully detailed. A prominent donor on record is former City Council member Jane Prince.
As a non-establishment candidate, Chen faces a familiar challenge: fundraising without access to large political networks, donor lists, or party infrastructure. The uphill nature of her campaign is made steeper by the city’s political culture — one where outsider candidates, particularly women of color without extensive political lineage, face systemic hurdles.
Still, her performance so far demonstrates serious commitment, if not yet electoral traction.
Kaohly Her (DFL-St. Paul)
|
Total contributions under $50 |
$1,123.60 |
|
Total contributions equal to or over $50 |
$62,955.00 |
|
Expenditures |
$12,112.50 |
|
Account Balance (as of report end date) |
$63,082.10 |
Though a late entrant to the race, state Representative Kaohly Her is already making a significant impact — aided by extensive support from the Capitol’s well-wired donor base. Her pre-election report reads like a “who’s who” of the Minnesota lobbying world, with notable contributions from:
Gavin Hanson, Amanda Jansen, Allyson Hartle, Andrew Kozak, Amanda Duerr, Robyn Rowen, Ward Einess, Courtney Jasper, Barbara Cox, Amy Walstien, Rochelle Westlund, Sonnie Elliot, Patrick Connolly, Bill Harper, Brian Rice, Jerry Seck, Matthew Freeman, John Kingrey, Paul Winkelaar, Nancy Haas, Tom Poul — among others.
Her eight week pre-election report
With deep connections and a polished political presence, Her appears well-positioned to hold her own, even as she faces off against her former employer, Mayor Carter.
Mike Hilborn (Republican)
|
Total contributions under $50 |
$972.41 |
|
Total contributions equal to or over $50 |
$21,229.21 |
|
Expenditures |
$21,486.29 |
|
Account Balance (as of report end date) |
$714.63 |
As the sole Republican in the race, Mike Hilborn has struggled to gain financial momentum. He has neither leaned into self-financing nor mounted a visible fundraising push. In a city as deeply blue as St. Paul, where Democratic candidates dominate citywide contests, Hilborn’s campaign appears more symbolic than competitive — barring an unexpected shift in voter sentiment.
Hilborn eight week pre-election report.
Adam Dullinger (DSC – Democratic Socialist Caucus)
No campaign finance report has been filed by Adam Dullinger. In private conversations, he has indicated that he does not intend to spend more than $750, raising questions about whether this figure includes the $500 candidate filing fee. His grassroots campaign appears more issue-driven than electoral in nature.
Conclusion: Dollars Raised, But Questions Remain
Mayor Carter’s formidable fundraising shows the power of incumbency, but his critics — both inside and outside City Hall — argue money alone cannot paper over the policy frustrations felt in many corners of St. Paul. Her and Chen present distinct alternatives, each with different strengths and limitations. Hilborn and Dullinger may find resonance among niche constituencies, but as of now, the race remains Carter’s to lose — unless public discontent coalesces around a credible challenger with staying power.
As always, in politics and in St. Paul, money talks — but voters ultimately decide who gets to lead.
ABC-Anyone But Carter? A Clear Pattern Emerges in St. Paul’s Mayoral Race
Minnesota Report
Now that the first major hurdle — campaign finance disclosures — is out of the way, a central theme in the 2025 St. Paul mayoral race is becoming clearer: this is shaping up to be an “Anyone But Carter” election.
Every challenger in the race — Yan Chen (DFL–St. Paul), Kaohly Her (DFL–St. Paul), Mike Hilborn (R–St. Paul), and Adam Dullinger (DSC–St. Paul) — has staked a position in direct opposition to incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL–St. Paul). While united in their criticism, their reasons for opposing the mayor differ significantly:
- Yan Chen emphasizes public safety and has positioned herself as a vocal opponent of property tax increases, calling for a more transparent and disciplined approach to budgeting.
- Kaohly Her, while acknowledging Carter’s proposed budget cuts, advocates for reprioritizing city services, particularly increasing funding for first responders and public safety infrastructure.
- Mike Hilborn offers more general critiques, arguing that “St. Paul keeps doing things that sound good but are unsustainable in the long term,” though he has yet to articulate a detailed alternative plan.
- Adam Dullinger, thus far, has offered little in the way of a concrete platform, and his messaging remains underdeveloped.
Ranked Choice Dynamics: A Path to Victory for the Anti-Carter Bloc?
Because this election will use Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), a strategic path to victory may lie in the formation of a “Coalition of the Unwilling to Support Carter” — a group of candidates who, while distinct in ideology, are willing to support one another as second-choice options.
Looking ahead, our electoral crystal ball suggests the following likely RCV scenario:
- Dullinger, with minimal visibility and funding, is likely to be eliminated first, leaving his small base of voters to select an alternate. Should he endorse another candidate — even informally — it could provide a modest but meaningful bump in second-round tabulations.
- Hilborn, as the lone Republican in a deep-blue city, is expected to be eliminated early as well. The real question is how large his vote share will be — and where those votes migrate upon redistribution.
- At that point, the field likely narrows to the three viable candidates: Carter, Chen, and Her. The most pivotal moment in the RCV process will be who ends up in second place after the first reallocation. If the third-place candidate publicly endorses a rival before ballots are cast, it could have a significant strategic impact on voter behavior.
Turning Point: The September 17th Debate
All eyes will be on the League of Women Voters–sponsored debate on September 17th — just two days before absentee voting begins. This event may prove to be a defining moment in the campaign, particularly if the candidates are pressed to go beyond rehearsed talking points.
One question we believe should be asked is both timely and revealing:
“If you fail to receive enough votes and are removed from consideration, who would you suggest your supporters rank as their second-choice?”
This question cuts to the heart of the RCV strategy and could shape how voters navigate their rankings, especially among the anti-Carter voting bloc.
To submit this — or any other question — to the League of Women Voters for the upcoming debate, email: lwvstpaul@lwvmn.org.
Now That Summer Is Coming to a Close…
Minnesota Report
Normally, in an odd-numbered year, there isn’t much to discuss in politics beyond the municipal elections in Minneapolis and St. Paul. But that was before the chaos unleashed in the Bizarro world of Donald J Trump (R), where nearly every day brings a new wave of lunacy.
The tragic loss of Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman (DFL-34B, Brooklyn Park)—assassinated in an act that still leaves a deep ache in the hearts of those who respect democracy—has further shaken the political landscape.
The Minnesota Legislature, one of the most closely divided in the nation, now hinges on the Special Election in District 34B, where the outcome could shift the balance of power in the Minnesota House of Representatives. The race features Xp Lee (DFL-34B, Brooklyn Park), a current Brooklyn Park City Council member and employee of the Minnesota Department of Health, facing off against Ruth Bittner (R-34B, Brooklyn Park), a real estate agent. If Bittner wins, the Republicans would gain the majority and dramatically alter the current power dynamic in the state.
Additionally, the Special Elections in Senate Districts 29 and 47 will determine control of the Minnesota Senate, where the majority also hangs in the balance.
In District 29, a northwestern exurban area, the race to replace the late SenatorBruce Anderson (R-29, Buffalo) is expected to remain in Republican hands. The candidates are Michael Holmstrom Jr (R-29, Buffalo), a business owner known for his strong anti-abortion stance, and Louis McNutt (DFL-29, Buffalo), a union truck driver for the State of Minnesota. In the 2022 election, Anderson carried the district with 61% of the vote.
The contest drawing the most attention is in Woodbury, where voters will elect a replacement for former Sen Nicole Mitchell (DFL-47, Woodbury) following her felony burglary conviction. The candidates are Rep Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger (DFL-47, Woodbury) and Dwight Dorau (R-47, Woodbury).
This race could have a domino effect. If Hemmingsen-Jaeger, who won her half of the district in 2024 with 60.62% of the vote, prevails, another Special Election will likely be held before year’s end to fill her vacated seat in the Minnesota House.
And Yes, There Is More: Municipal Elections
Minnesota Report
As municipal elections near, critical decisions loom in both Minneapolis and St. Paul. Voters should pay close attention to who is asking for their vote—and what their record actually shows.
Minneapolis: A Defining Race for the City’s Future
In Minneapolis, the race for mayor pits two-term incumbent Jacob Frey (DFL-Minneapolis) against State Senator Omar Fateh (DFL-62, Minneapolis), a candidate whose legitimacy is already under a cloud.
Fateh’s bid is tainted by serious irregularities. The State DFL Party took the rare step of revoking his endorsement after credible allegations surfaced regarding a deeply flawed delegate credentialing process and questionable vote tabulation. In a party that thrives on grassroots legitimacy, this kind of procedural malpractice is disqualifying.
Fateh is not just a candidate with technical issues—he is a torchbearer for the Democratic Socialists, a political faction that is not merely a wing of the Democratic Party, but an entirely separate ideology. This group actively seeks to dismantle core institutions, including law enforcement, capitalism, and the very idea of compromise politics. They may share a ballot line, but they do not share values with traditional Democrats.
This election now becomes a stark choice: Jewish mayor versus a Somali Muslim challenger who aligns himself with an insurgent political ideology. The racial and religious dynamics are unavoidable, especially considering that both candidates will seek support from constituents in and around the West Bank area—an ethnically diverse but politically fractured community.
St. Paul: Decline Under Carter, and a Crisis of Leadership
Across the river in St. Paul, two-term incumbent Melvin Carter III (DFL-St. Paul) faces mounting criticism for his stewardship of Minnesota’s Capitol city. The once-functioning city DFL is now in tatters, unable even to hold an endorsement convention. This collapse occurred on Carter’s watch, and it speaks volumes about his political management and coalition-building skills—or lack thereof.
The mayor now finds himself being challenged by multiple candidates, including State Rep Kaohly Her (DFL-64A)—a former staffer of Carter’s. That fact alone raises eyebrows. What did she witness or experience in his administration that led her to run against her former boss? Her candidacy is a strong signal, showing the lack of internal confidence in Carter’s leadership is crumbling.
Under Carter, St. Paul has faced more than just national crises like COVID-19 or the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder. His tenure has seen a deepening of urban decay, especially in the downtown core. Beyond the small-scale pilot programs—such as eliminating library fines, launching a college scholarship fund, and experimenting with direct cash transfers—the city is struggling with real, tangible issues that Carter has failed to address:
- Rampant street crime and public drug use
- Closure of two major grocery stores, largely due to unchecked shoplifting
- Rising property taxes, which are driving both businesses and families out of the city
- Diminishing police presence amid whispers of potential cuts to public safety funding
Carter’s administration recently announced a lawsuit against the Trump administration—a convenient distraction and a predictable scapegoat. The truth is, if the city’s budget is this fragile, it is because Carter failed to plan for contingencies and relied too heavily on federal support without building resilient, local economic structures.
Even now, we hear that Carter may promise to hold the line on additional city levy increases, a position echoed by his opponent Yan Chen. But unless he can clearly identify cuts or growth strategies to offset this pledge, it rings hollow—yet another campaign talking point likely to be abandoned post-election.
The Stakes for St. Paul
What is at stake here is not just political control. It is the city’s future economic viability and livability. Property tax hikes are becoming untenable. Downtown St. Paul is no longer a magnet—it is becoming a deterrent. Businesses are closing. Families are leaving. And the people coming in are fewer and fewer.
The need for leadership that can do more than speak in platitudes or launch feel-good pilot programs. St. Paul needs a mayor who can restore safety, foster economic development, and bring real governance back to city hall—not another four years of avoidance and ideological posturing.
Conclusion
Both Minneapolis and St. Paul face pivotal mayoral contests. In both cities, incumbent mayors are being challenged—not just by political opponents, but by the consequences of situations in their communities. Voters should reject candidates like Omar Fateh, whose record is marred by procedural scandal and radical affiliations, and Melvin Carter, whose leadership has coincided with institutional decline, rising crime, and economic stagnation.
These elections are not just referenda on individual candidates—they are a referendum on the direction of the Twin Cities. Voter’s should not choose decline disguised as progress.
Results of the 2025 State Fair Legislative Polls
Minnesota Report
Here is our standard offering from the Minnesota State Fair. Read these results and you will see some of the priorities for the four different legislative caucuses in the forthcoming 2026 legislative session.
https://www.house.mn.gov/hinfo/fair/2025Results.pdf
https://www.senate.mn/departments/secretary/info/statefair/Poll-Results.pdf
Here is Our Offering to St Paul
Minnesota Report
Here is Our Offering to St Paul
Checks & Balances was born in St Paul, and we care about the Capitol City and so we created something for you to see. It’s intended to make a mockery of the current administration and diminish the substandard leadership. We now render a strict condemnation of the Melvin Carter III administration as bad from the start and poor at the finish, and overall just pathetic.
Our publisher Shawn Towle, helped him to achieve the mayoral position and now truly regrets the assistance given. We say, Just Go Away.
To this end, we have produced a video for your enjoyment and encourage you to share it broadly. Help this story get legs.
Click on the link to view.
Click on the link to view.
Trump Polling Numbers in Key States Falter
National and Minnesota Report Yesterday, articles in the New York Times and the Washington Post spelled good news for the former Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign (D). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html...
Senate Bonding Then and Now (2018 v 2020)
Minnesota Report Two years ago, the Republican controlled State Senate brought forward it’s Capitol Investment Bill, which failed to pass on a party line vote of 34-33, seven votes short of the 2/3rds majority of 41 votes. What is interesting I what the Republicans...
Mayo Clinic Challenging Trump’s Push of Malaria Drugs
Minnesota Report The Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN has released a medical advisory in direct response to Donald J Trump's (R) call of the use of hydroxychloroquine and erythromycin.Guidance on patients at risk of drug-induced sudden cardiac death from off-label...
Minnesota Department of Health COVID-19 Page
Minnesota Report On Friday, Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) along with Commissioner Jan Malcolm released the State of Minnesota’s comprehensive COVID-19 page on the Department of Health’s Website. Additionally, the MN House also has a page which provides more and...
Trump’s Continued Call for Hydroxychloroquine
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Walz Executive Orders During Pandemic
Minnesota Report As we are in the midst of the second week of the Stay at Home Executive Order 20-20 more orders are coming from Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) to stipulate what options are available to our state’s citizens. Today, Executive Order 20-25 Authorizing Peace...
The Coming of the Four Horsemen
If you want to be memorable in Minnesota State Capitol politics it is good if you are referred to as something other than your name. It is often helpful when a term or a phrase can be applied to your, group, issue or initiative. If you want to be known as something...
First Paid Political Advertisement Ran Here 21 Years Ago
There were a number of firsts that occurred in the 1998 Governor's race besides the My Three Sons Primary and the election of third-party candidate Jesse Ventura, In 1997, the Ted Mondale for Governor campaign took out, what is known as the First Paid Political...
2018 House State Fair Poll
Minnesota Report We at Checks & Balances are continuing our tradition of publishing the State Fair Polls found at the State Fair booths in the Education Building. Again, as we have said before, these provide an insight into the mindset and the issues of interest...
2018 Senate State Fair Poll
Minnesota Report State Senate 2016 State Fair Poll Questions (Choose one answer per question) Demographics Residence Minneapolis/St. Paul Rural Suburban Regional hub of at least 40,000 people (Rochester, Duluth, St. Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead) Another state No...
Candidates Wolgamott and Ek are Each, Seeking a Shot at Redemption
Minnesota Report In December of 2005, the MN Supreme Court Ruled House Candidate Sue Ek (R-MN) ineligible as a candidate for the House seat 15B, do to her failure to reside in the district 60-days prior to the filing period. This means the highest court in our state,...
Speaking of Urdahl, One of His Books is Being Turned into a Movie
Minnesota Report Capitol observers might be familiar with the fact, Dean Urdahl (R-16A, Grove City) is a writer of historical fiction based on the Civil War era. The first book in his Uprising Saga series, Uprising is set to be on the small screen offered by one of...
Leadership Shuffles
Minnesota Report First, it was the rapid one-week ouster of Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan, then the announcement by Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka (R-09, Nisswa) leaving the leadership post and not seeking reelection, followed by the more surprising...
The Best Example of the Legislative Chasm: Bonding Bill
Minnesota Report DFLers and Republicans are at odds over whether or not a Bonding Bill is a Jobs Bill. The two sides are also at loggerheads over whether or not long-term spending through bonds is a prudent fiscal decision. The cost of spending for a government backed...
Legislative Session Ends with a Flatulence in a Wind Funnel or FWF
Minnesota Report When competing political ideologies are at play, the ability to achieve consensus is a far way island, and reaching it, is a distant, remote and implausible likelihood. The reason being political people are hard-pressed to see beyond their own vested...
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