News Releases
Field of Candidates in St Paul Mayoral Race Continue to Grow
Minnesota Report
Yesterday, we learned State Representative Kaohly Her (DFL-64A, St Paul) is committed to file for mayor of the Capitol City when the filing opens on April 29th. She is a four-term legislator, Hmong woman, who had the fortune to be in the right place at the right time in 2018, when Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) received the DFL endorsement and began her unsuccessful bid for Governor, falling to Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN01).
In this instance, Her’s bid is a direct affront to the incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL-St Paul) and politically, they share the left lane. If the two of them carve up this path, and as we speculate the political landscape, in even a community like St Paul, is changing. Now, because her job is listed as a a Saint Paul, Minnesota (Policy Director), we are unclear as to what this entails but there are references to her working in this capacity directly for Carter. Its clear something must have transpired between the two if she seeks to challenge her old boss.
We also see her campaign slogan being as simple as Vote for Her.
As we understand, the pending field now includes Yan Chen (DFL-St Paul), a pragmatic, and fiscally-responsible Democrat, University of Minnesota Biophysics researcher, a landlord in residential housing and Chinese immigrant, and Mike Hilborn, a businessman and self-declared Independent, who ran as a Republican for the state House in 2024. We have heard other potential names, but at this time, these are the only people making moves.
The question over the impact of Ranked Choice Voting, and its cummulative effect, as the votes are reallocated, will provide an interesting spate of tabulations. A simplistic view of the field is Carter v Three (Her, Chen, and Hilborn) and this could set the stage for a novel approach to the system and something we abhor, the idea of collusion campaigning.
If there is a more moderate, or even conservative sentiment occurring, it might be a reflection of Donald J Trump’s (R) influence, but not likely, it probably is a result of the negative perception extending from the alt-left agenda of entities like the Democratic Socialists, and the challenges emanating from transgender inclusion in girl’s and women’s sports. These realities are some of the challenges facing a party overly focused on social issues rather than pocketbook issues.
We have learned of analysis by the DFL Party, which has growing concerns of significant loses in its base in the Twin Cities. They have numbers reflecting this, showing a 40% loss in Minneapolis in the DFL voting base and 30% in St Paul. If these two candidates carve up the left side of the formula, it leaves room for other candidacies.
Now, one issue of which we have been exposed is the ludicrous idea of putting an elevated bicycle path on both sides of Summit Avenue. One major feature being the destruction of over 900 boulevard trees and a redevelopment of the cities, sewer and water system. This coupled with a property tax increase of 25% on the homes on Summit to pay for the project. It’s clear, this is an idea needs to go back to the drawing board and get another look and analysis, especially, since the proposal lacks any reflection of the changes in none automobile transportation. The increased use of electric bicycles and scooters—which as transportation vehicles, should not be allowed on bicycle paths—is something worth serious consideration.
The state of affairs in St Paul is dismal. It downtown is a wasteland, businesses a fleeing. The loss of the Lunds/Beyerlys downtown is a direct example of the decay caused by shoplifting, lack of law enforcement, and unmitigated urban decay caused by the rampant drug use of Fentanyl and Methamphetamine. Additionally, the Midway Cub Foods is set to close due to theft of shopping carts, and shoplifting. Anyone pushing a shopping cart off of the cite to which it belongs, is a perpetrator and warrants a citation. If the pockets of homelessness and the gatherings of the drug crowd are not squelched it will be hard to reclaim the streets of St Paul from the users over then needs of the productive members of society.
We call for Zero Tolerance for any public drug use, and even believe allowance of smoking Marijuana should be curtailed to designated areas outside of one’s home. No more walking down the street with a blunt. Drinking and eating cannabis products are fine, but no more public smoking.
What the Electoral History of the Field of Candidates in St Paul Offers.
Minnesota Report
Since, our inception in 1995, Checks & Balances has prided itself on offering analytics based on numbers. Here are the numbers associated with all of the expected candidates in the mayoral contest at this time.
Trump: The Illusion of Strength, the Reality of Decline
National & Minnesota Report
Donald J Trump (R) has carefully curated a brand of dominance, vitality, and so-called “alpha masculinity.” But the image has always been manufactured, and now—under the weight of age, indictments, and cognitive erosion—it is visibly collapsing.
Here, we offer a contrast between Trump’s projected image and his demonstrated behavior, using his own rhetoric against him, and highlighting the reality that he is physically frail, intellectually disengaged, and increasingly incoherent.
1. Trump Attempts to Project Strength — but Shows Physical and Cognitive Decline
- “Look at him. He can’t walk up a ramp. He’s not well.”
— Trump on Joe Biden, 2020
Reality Check:
- In June 2020, Trump struggled to descend a ramp at West Point, visibly shuffling and unable to lift a glass of water with one hand—prompting widespread speculation about his own physical fitness.
- Trump’s gait has been slow and stiff at multiple public events, including his Mar-a-Lago speeches, and observers note increasing difficulty with articulation.
- We now see Trump suffering from precisely what he once weaponized against Biden.
2. Trump Derides Cognitive Decline – While Forgetting Names, Repeating Rants
“We need a president with all their faculties. Joe doesn’t know what state he’s in.”
— Trump, 2020 rally
Reality Check:
- In 2024 campaign rallies, Trump:
- Confused Barack Obama with Joe Biden multiple times
- Claimed the US is fighting World War II
- Forgot the name of his own doctor
- Repeated stories nearly word-for-word across events, often losing track of thought mid-sentence
- This is not rhetorical repetition. This is a man struggling to maintain coherence.
We clearly remember during the COVID pronouncement in 2019, we sat waiting for it and it occurred when he said, We need “Herd Mentality.” Not Herd Immunity. https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/trump-again-says-virus-will-disappear-discusses-herd-mentality-91870277755
3. Trump Brands Himself a Vital Alpha — While Avoiding Work and Exercise
- “I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things.”
— Trump, 2016 interview
Reality Check:
- Trump has never released full medical records, unlike other modern presidents.
- Former White House physician Dr Ronny Jackson was pressured to falsify records to inflate Trump’s weight and health metrics.
- He has admitted to never exercising, claiming the body has “a finite amount of energy.”
- He reportedly watches up to 8 hours of television daily, consumes fast food obsessively, and rarely reads briefing materials.
- We must ask: Is this the profile of a “vital” leader—or a man dangerously disengaged from the duties of office?
4. Trump Markets Himself as Tough — Yet Hid COVID, Endangered Others
- “I didn’t want to cause panic.”
— Trump, after downplaying COVID-19 in 2020
Reality Check:
- Trump contracted COVID in October 2020 and knowingly exposed others, including Secret Service agents, White House staff, and debate attendees, while actively contagious.
- He relied on experimental treatments not available to ordinary Americans, while telling the public not to worry.
- The event became a superspreader disaster, showing both recklessness and cowardice.
- This is not toughness. This is negligence masked as bravado.
5. Trump Presents Himself as a Patriot — But Sided with Autocrats, Insulted Vets
“I like people who weren’t captured.”— Trump, on John McCain
Reality Check:
- Called American soldiers “suckers” and “losers” (confirmed by multiple sources including Trump’s own Chief of Staff John Kelly).
- Admired Vladimir Putin, even as Russia attacked American elections and invaded Ukraine.
- Said of January 6th insurrectionists: “They were very special.”
- No true patriot excuses domestic terrorism, sides with foreign dictators, or insults the sacrifices of the military.
CONCLUSION: The Emperor Has No Stamina
Trump is no strongman. He is a television character, desperately re-running old scripts while his mind and body deteriorate under the spotlight he so desperately craves.
- He is a megalomaniac, unable to share power or admit error.
- He is intellectually lazy, governing by instinct, not understanding.
- He is physically compromised, hiding fatigue and frailty under layers of performance.
And now, we watch as the man who mocked Joe Biden’s age begins to mirror the very vulnerabilities he once derided—only without the humility, decency, or public service record Biden brought to the Oval Office.
THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: A SHARP DIVIDE BETWEEN DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES AND REPUBLICAN POSTURING: An Analysis of Winners, Losers, and the Political Fallout
National, Arizona, California, Nebraska, New York & Pennsylvannia Report
The passage of the what Donald J Trump (R) dubbed as the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) and Democrats call the Big, Bunch of Bullshit, has thrown a stark spotlight on the deep ideological fault lines dividing America’s two major political parties. Sold by Republicans as a “populist financial reset,” the bill has instead ignited fury across the conservative base, and celebration across progressive circles. We are not fooled by the branding: though championed by Republicans in Congress, the BBB delivers victories that align directly with the Democratic platform—student loan forgiveness, income-based repayment caps, and progressive taxation.
What follows is a thorough breakdown of who wins, who loses, and which vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts may face their political end for backing this Trojan Horse of liberal reform.
A PARTY DIVIDED: RHETORIC VS. REALITY
Republican Rhetoric:
Republicans pitched the bill as a populist rebalancing of America’s economic engine—”pro-worker,” “anti-elite,” and “fiscally disciplined.” But the bill increases federal spending by nearly $480 billion over ten years, caps loan interest at 1.5%, and forgives debt for over 14 million borrowers—hallmarks of policies once mocked as “socialism.” In the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Build Back Better (BBB) Act, would increase the national debt by roughly $3.0 trillion over ten years, including interest costs, according to a June 2025 report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Democratic Reaction:
The Democratic electorate, see this legislation as a long-overdue victory—delivered in Republican wrapping paper. While we are acutely aware that no Democrat voted for the bill (due to partisan gridlock), its content is unmistakably Democratic in nature. We welcome it and will campaign on its success, even as Republican incumbents try to justify their role in its passage.
WHO WINS
Income Bracket: Under $75,000/year
- Benefits:
- $10,000–$20,000 in loan forgiveness
- 1.5% interest cap on new and refinanced federal loans
- Monthly repayment capped at 5% of income
- Penalties eliminated for defaulted loans
- Although it also brings forward limits on the size of future loans, meaning a potential adverse impact on people seeking advanced degrees, like doctors and lawyers regardless of demographics.
- Demographic Impact:
- Black and Latino borrowers
- First-generation students
- Borrowers in urban centers like Atlanta, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Chicago
- Verdict: WINNERS
Income Bracket: $75,000–$125,000/year
- Benefits:
- Partial loan forgiveness depending on family size
- Lower interest and new “college savings matching” credit for future students
- Cap on repayments
- Demographic Impact:
- Young professionals
- Middle-class parents saving for college
- Residents of suburban swing districts
- Verdict: WINNERS
Income Bracket: $125,000–$250,000/year
- Benefits:
- No direct forgiveness, but may refinance at 1.5%
- College savings tax credits phased out
- Higher tax burden due to elimination of itemized deductions on passive income
- Verdict: MIXED BAG
Income Bracket: Over $250,000/year
- Cost:
- 2.5% surtax on capital gains
- Removal of carried interest loopholes
- Broadened investment income tax coverage
- Stripped real estate depreciation shields
- Demographic Impact:
- High-income earners in Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and wealthy suburbs
- Venture capitalists, corporate executives, hedge fund managers
- Verdict: LOSERS
WHO LOSES POLITICALLY: REPUBLICANS IN SWING DISTRICTS
These incumbents voted for the Big Beautiful Bill, and now face dual fire: scorn from the MAGA base and sharp Democratic challengers ready to hang this “liberal” vote around their neck.
Representative Mike Garcia (R, CA-27)
- District: Biden +12
- Voter Sentiment: Latino-heavy district applauds student debt relief; base conservatives call it a betrayal
- Status: Highly Vulnerable
Representative Don Bacon (R, NE-02)
- District: Omaha suburbs, Biden +6
- Voter Sentiment: College-educated suburbanites supportive; GOP base furious
- Status: Likely Challenger from Far Right
Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-01)
- District: Philly suburbs, Biden +5
- Voter Sentiment: Moderates support the bill; GOP primary voters may not
- Status: Swing Seat at Risk
Representative Marc Molinaro (R, NY-19)
- District: D+2
- Voter Sentiment: Young voters energized; Republican voters feel misled
- Status: Toss-Up
Representative David Valadao (R, CA-22)
- District: Majority Latino, Biden +13
- Voter Sentiment: Student loan reform wildly popular among local families
- Status: Dead Man Walking
Representative Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-06)
- District: Tucson suburbs, Biden +0.1
- Voter Sentiment: Narrow electorate could turn blue with high youth turnout
- Status: Battleground Flip Alert
DEMOCRATIC POPULAR OPINION
Across the Democratic base—from grassroots organizers to Congressional leaders—this bill is seen as validation of their long-standing platform:
- Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): “They passed our ideas without our names on them. We’ll take the win and remind voters who planted the seeds.”
- Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY14): “It doesn’t matter who signed the bill—what matters is that working families finally caught a break.”
Polling among Democratic voters shows broad support for the bill’s key provisions:
- 79% support loan forgiveness up to $20,000
- 85% support interest caps on federal loans
- 67% support taxing capital gains to pay for it
CONCLUSION: THE POLITICAL CROSSROADS
The BBB is a case study in political inversion. Republicans passed legislation filled with Democratic substance, and now Democrats will reap the electoral benefits, especially in suburban swing districts with large populations of student borrowers.
Some See These as the Winners:
- Low- and middle-income borrowers
- Public school teachers, nurses, social workers
- Democratic challengers in swing districts
- Progressive economic policy
Others See These as the Losers:
- High-net-worth individuals
- Passive investors
- GOP incumbents in Biden-won districts
- The Republican Party’s illusion of ideological purity
As the 2026 midterms approach, Democrats will remind voters of one simple truth:
They passed our ideas in their bill. So, we’ll take the credit.
Democratic Campaign Strategy Memo — 2026 Midterms
National, Arizona, California, Nebraska, New York & Pennsylvania Report
Target Audience: Student Voters, Recent Graduates, Young Professionals, and Working-Class Parents
Objective: Leverage the Big Beautiful Bill to Flip Republican-Held Swing Seats
CORE STRATEGIC PREMISE
The Republican Party passed a Democratic bill. Their swing-district incumbents voted for it. We will campaign on it—and win because of it.
Though not a single Democrat voted for the BBB due to procedural blockage and lack of genuine negotiation, its core provisions mirror our platform. We must now:
- Claim ideological authorship
- Tie the benefit directly to Democratic values
- Expose Republican vulnerability in key districts
CORE MESSAGING PILLARS
1.“They Voted Our Values—We Deliver the Future”
“We fought for debt relief. They finally gave in. Let’s make sure the right people get credit.”
Position the bill as a Democratic policy win pushed forward due to years of pressure from:
- Young voters
- The progressive base
- Democratic leaders like Sens Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and AOC
Make clear that Republican votes were reactive, not visionary.
2. “The Big Beautiful Bill Wasn’t Their Idea”
“Don’t let them lie. We’ve been fighting for these policies for a decade.”
Educate voters that:
- Republicans only supported debt relief after polling showed massive youth support
- The mechanisms—interest caps, forgiveness thresholds, income-based repayment—mirror Biden-era proposals
- Their passage of this bill was damage control, not leadership
3. “Take the Win—Now Elect the People Who Fought For You”
- “You got $20,000 in relief. Now vote for the party that believed in you before it was politically safe.”
Directly engage student voters and working families with:
- Targeted email and SMS campaigns: “Got student loan relief? You’re welcome.”
- TikTok and Instagram reels: “Wanna know who REALLY canceled your debt?”
- Campus organizing: “You voted in 2024. You got results. Let’s finish the job.”
PRIORITY TARGET DISTRICTS & MESSAGE ANGLES
| District | Incumbent | Messaging Focus | Dem Challenger Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-27 | Rep Mike Garcia (R) | Latino working families, CSU students | College affordability + immigration justice |
| NE-02 | Rep Don Bacon (R) | Omaha college and med school students | “Fake moderate” accountability framing |
| PA-01 | Rep Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Suburban parents, young commuters | Tie to Biden values, student-first messaging |
| NY-19 | Rep Marc Molinaro (R) | SUNY students, Hudson Valley voters | “Marc votes blue when it’s safe for him” |
| CA-22 | Rep David Valadao (R) | Central Valley borrowers | “You paid your way, he bought your vote” |
| AZ-06 | Rep Juan Ciscomani (R) | Latino and military family students | Frame as opportunist, not reformer |
TACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Localize the Win
- Mailers with “Here’s what you got—and who wanted to stop it”
- QR-coded flyers with individualized loan calculator tools
- Use local universities and community colleges as campaign hubs
2. Aggressive Contrast Advertising
- Target Republican incumbents with ads like: “Rep. Garcia voted to cancel your debt—only after opposing it for years. Next time, elect someone who doesn’t need a poll to do the right thing.”
3. Earned Media Blitz
- Letters to the editor from borrowers: “Thank you, Democrats. No thanks to my Congressman.”
- Radio and podcast interviews with local graduates
- Campus op-eds from young Democrats
POLLING DATA TO SUPPORT YOUR PUSH
| Policy Element | Democrat Support | Independent Support | Republican Support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Student loan forgiveness up to $20K | 91% | 68% | 43% |
| Interest caps on student loans | 94% | 72% | 55% |
| Income-driven repayment at 5% | 89% | 76% | 50% |
| Tax increase on capital gains over $250K | 84% | 61% | 33% |
Source: Pew Research + Brookings + Navigator Research, June 2025
Why Do Senators Endorse a Self-Declared Democratic Socialist in Omar Fateh for Minneapolis Mayor?
Minnesota Report
Some will question the rationale for a legislator to endorse a candidate for Minneapolis Mayor. Its quite simple to understand why a fellow state senator will put forward their support for a colleague in Sen Omar Fateh (DS-62, Minneapolis) it because if he loses he is still a senator. Because the mayoral election is held in an odd-year, it has no adverse impact for a legislator.
The list of senator endorsers are the following: Sens Dorian Clark (DFL-60,Minneapolis), Jen McEwen (DFL-08, Duluth), Aric Putnam (DFL-14, St Cloud), Liz Bolden (DFL-25, Rochester) John Hoffman (DFL-34, Champlain), Susan Pha (DFL-38, Brooklyn Park), Mary Kunesh (DFL-39, Little Canada), Tua Xiong (DFL-44, Maplewood), Jim Carlson (DFL-52, Apple Valley) and Foung Hawj (DFL-67, St Paul).
Sorrow Abounds
Minnesota Report
We attended the in state viewing of Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman (DFL-34B, Brookyn Park), her husband Mark and their Golden Retriever Gilbert. It is another sad day coupled with hugs, concern for our state’s democracy and questions of where we are headed.
With the State House surrounded by scaffolding and the new wing showing its true shape, it seems almost academic for the building not to be dedicated in her name.
Those lined up and waiting
A Therapy Dog at the Ready
These are a few pictures from the day and a special photo we found on Facebook of Melissa and Gilbert.
Walz and Reelection
Minnesota Report
Is the writing on the wall? Is the reading in the tea leaves? Can Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) buck history and seek a third term of office? We have already stated our disbelief he could run again and succeed. We wrote the following on February 19, 2025 https://checksandbalances.com/why-walz-and-dflers-need-to-realistically-assess-their-political-opportunities/
A recent Minnesota Star Tribune poll found a significant challenge ahead.
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-walz-approval-rating-dips-below-50-about-half-say-he-shouldnt-seek-third-term/601373770 (Paid Subscription)
Now, if you want to delve into the financial situation of Walz, it might be useful to consider the following:
He has a teacher’s pension, a military pension, a Congressional pension and a State of Minnesota pension to fallback on. Not to mention Social Security coming in 9-years if he is wanting to receive the maximum benefit.
If he wants to show his capacity for assisting in the determination of the 2026 elections, he could start a PAC and direct monies and show-up to motivate voters in key swing districts.
We are Coining a Term, We Hope Doesn’t Get Used, But Possibly Will
International, National & Minnesota Report
The attack ordered by Donald J Trump (R) isn’t as popular as he may have thought, but the divide in America remains prevalent. A new CNN poll shows 60% opposed the action and 40% in favor. A majority of Americans disapproves of Trump’s Iran airstrikes, CNN poll finds
When we heard about the strike last Saturday, the fact Trump did not seek Congressional Authorization prior to his action, might seem superfluous to some, but as we stated previously is just another example of his floating the US Constitution and the War Powers Act, which was created to restrict these powers of the President.
Our term we are coining in Pop-Up Terrorism. We define this as lone actors or a small cabal of actors who will stage terrorist acts in America as retribution for the attack in Iran.
This is Tiresome, the Supreme Court Must Change or Be Changed
National & Minnesota Report
Yesterday and today’s US Supreme Court is showing clearly, it is out of touch with the American public. The decisions they are reaching, in favor of the Chief Executive, supplanting the importance of the Congress to the authority of the Executive Branch particularly and undermining the lower cower system, and making everything required to curtail the President and his administration, appears to be the highest courts purview, but that means they need to agree to hear the case.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/slipopinion/24
Even if you are not a Constitutional Lawyer, you should be able to understand these ruling for what they are, wrong, just blatantly wrong.
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