News Releases

Senate Subterfuge on SRO

Minnesota Report

The long duration debate over the School Resource Officer bill (SRO) yesterday in the Senate was one of those common occurrences in the legislation process, which is the debate on the floor was not what the real issue was about. While, discussing procedural issues and the ability to engage in debate, the minority, Republican members frequently recent House members, were pressing questions about the Senate Rules.

As they pressed Senate President Bobby Joe Champion (DFL-58, Minneapolis) with a line of questioning it was presented with one fundamental reality, on Friday the Republican minority of the Rules and Administration Committee were questioning the use of remote voting and its implementation. With the DFL holding a mere one-vote majority, the ability to wrangle, or whip the votes is far easier when the members do not have to be physically present.

It is common knowledge former Senate Majority Leader Kari Dziedzic (DFL- 60, Minneapolis) is fighting return of ovarian cancer and mandating her presence by rule seems unduly onerous. The rules they currently have were set during the COVID pandemic and have not be rescinded, and exercised on both sides of the aisle.

Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy (DFL-64, St Paul) released the following statement.

“The timing of Republicans’ attempt to eliminate remote voting in the Senate is either careless or cruel. The use of this practice in the Senate dates back four years, to allow the Legislature to continue its work and limit the spread of COVID. Since that time, remote voting has proven invaluable to members on both sides of the aisle, including the late Senator David Tomassoni, who participated remotely following his diagnosis with ALS. Last session, it was available for mothers with newborns or sick kids at home, and for members who sustained injuries or needed surgery.

I would never have tried to deprive Senator Andrew Lang’s district from representation, even for one day, because of his service in the National Guard, and I would never have prevented Senator Steve Drazkowski from participating when he needed to travel to be with an ailing relative.

As everyone knows, our colleague Senator Kari Dziedzic is currently in treatment following a recurrence of cancer. Her commitment to serve the people of Minnesota during this difficult time should be applauded, not dismissed, and not fought through cynical rulemaking. I am calling on Senate Republicans to stop this fight over remote voting. One of our members needs it now, and almost all of them will need it some day. Remote voting has allowed more people from different walks of life, especially younger members who are starting or growing their families, to consider elected office. In the long run, that is better for Minnesotans.”

The Republicans on the Rules and Administration Committee are: Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson (R-01, East Grand Forks), Sen. Justin Eichorn (R-06, Grand Rapids), Sen Warren Limmer (R-37, Maple Grove), and Former Senate Majority Leader Jeremy Miller (R-26, Winona).

Start of the 2024 Presidential Campaign

National & Minnesota Report

Start of the 2024 Presidential Campaign

Today, marks the unofficial start of the 20024 Presidential Campaign, which will make this the longest campaign in modern day history. The rematch between President Joe Biden (D) and Donald J Trump (R) is all but assured unless there is some court proceeding to make Trump ineligible to run, which is highly unlikely. With the US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the stay on Trump’s inclusion on the Colorado Primary ballot, leads us to believe the court doesn’t intend on playing an active role in undermining Trump’s election opportunity. This despite the reality of the court doing just that in the George W. Bush v. Albert Gore Jr election in 2000.

One clear point we drew from Biden’s speech is he positing the election on an important line of questions for Republicans who are now wedded to Trump. Are you Valdimir Putin sympathizer or are you a Defender of Democracy? The events of January 6, 2021 are still a vivid part of our collective memory, despite attempts to whitewash it away or diminish its importance and Trump’s role in bringing it about. Additionally, this makes support for Ukraine a paramount measure by which support for democracy worldwide is defined.

The Friday night and Sunday morning talk shows were all a buzz with the largely universal believe the Biden prevailed over expectations and delivered a highly politicized report on the state of the union. During which he highlighted the various ways his administration has taken corrective action post-Pandemic to improve the economy, but the nagging hangover of inflation, is causing the electorate to question the improvements. The costs of food prices, rent and interest rates are a few of the aspects that undermine many feelings among the populace of America headed in the right direction. This is also marked by the nostalgic pre-pandemic time of Trump. We will not stand idly by and become complacent and allow the Times of Trump to become revisionist history.

The Biden Administration has done the work and preformed the heavy-lift but because public sentiment is based on how people feel at certain times and until inflation is brought to bear any approval is credit for an improving economy is still pending, in spite of most economic indicators heading in the right direction. Once the pocketbook issues become resolved and people see direct signs of improvement they are willing to recognize it will be a wait and see situation.

It will be interesting to see how moderate and suburban voters, which will decide this election, accept or recoil from the Republican Party, which is now clearly the Trumplican Party.

Biden’s Scores Points on Immigration and Still Stands on the Precipice

National & Minnesota Report

As Republicans work to entwine crime and immigration by using the death of Laken Riley as the prime example of the failure of the Biden Administration’s immigration policies. They are merely being opportunists and exploiting a tragedy for political gains.

When President Joe Biden (D) was able to blame Republicans and Donald J Trump for killing the bill Republican supported Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act. If passed in the form offered, it would be the most sweeping and comprehensive immigration bill of the twenty-first century. It’s overhaul of the process for asylum seekers—and imposition of an “emergency authority” placing asylum fully out of reach for those crossing between ports of entry over the course of the next three years. It would attempt to address issues like work permits and years-long waits for asylum seekers, and raise the standards a person must meet in order to access the US asylum system. It would finally expand additional visas and future green card availability and offer a pathway to citizenship to Afghans, while also significantly increasing detention capacity. Immigration advocates see the bill as a mixed bag.

With this bill’s failure to pass, it becomes a political football for both sides. Trump retains the issue by making a Lucy (Peanuts) style move removing the ball and Biden gained credibility when he said, “Look, folks, we have a simple choice: We can fight about fixing the border or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it. Send me the border bill now.” In light of Trump’s actions Biden prevailed, but the problem still remains.

Time for Sport’s Betting

Minnesota Report

We have said repeatedly, the legislature should pass Sport’s Book, and legalize a practice which is an ongoing issue. When inclusion of the Native American casino’s was first proposed we wondered why? Then later it became evident, Tribal Casions have over 30 years of experience with this federally regulated industry and hence have the collective knowledge necessary to provide oversight, rather than create a new state agency.

Secondly, we have believed this is another source of stable revenue for the state, which should receive approximately 20% of the profits, but the real question in how large will the pot of money be? It was interesting to hear Rep Pat Garofalo (R-58B, Farmington) while sitting on the Almanac couch Friday, threaten to rescind his decision to not seek reelection and called on the DFL House majority to pass the legislation or he would seek reelection.

DOT Jeopardizing 12 Existing Routes Between USA-Mexico if They Nix the Current Joint Cooperation Agreement

National & Minnesota Report

Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico have an existing Joint Cooperation Agreement (JCA), established in 2015. The purpose is to provide a cooperative agreement between the two companies which is mutually beneficial to both parties.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/16-us-mexico-routes-at-risk-of-cancelation-if-dot-shuts-down-delta-aeromexico-joint-venture

In the regulation of the Air Transportation Agreement (ATA), and as is established in the Antitrust Immunity (ATI) agreement, the Department of Transportation states, as communicated via Simply Flying.

“This tentative decision is consistent with longstanding Department policy; specifically, that any alliance receiving or maintaining ATI is predicated upon a fully-applied liberalized air transport agreement, transparent market entry, and a fair and equal opportunity to compete.

“Despite DOT’s repeated warnings to Mexican counterparts, the Government of Mexico is not adhering to the 2015 U.S.-Mexico air transport agreement. As a result, we suspended our review of the Allegiant/Viva Aerobus ATI application on July 31, 2023, and we are now dismissing the Delta-Aeromexico application.”

Simple Flying previously stated, as many as 1.8 million seats are at risk of ending following the United States Department of Transportation’s announcement which is tentatively decided not to be renewed as an antitrust immunity agreement, which allowed for the joint venture between Delta and Aeromexico.

Capitalizing on an Opportunity?

In light of this pending decision, VivaAerobus and Allegiant Air are pressing for DOT to resume the examination of their Antitrust Immunity (ATI) application, following a potential reversal of the DOT’s decision to terminate Delta Air Lines and Aeroméxico’s joint cooperation agreement’s existing ATI.

https://www.airguide.info/vivaaerobus-and-allegiant-air-seek-reinstatement-of-ati-application-review-by-us-dot/

2024 Super Tuesday Results and Party Delegate Allocations

National & Minnesota Report

Last night’s results are not as clear as people might think. Yesterday, we sought information on the National Delegate selection from the MNGOP.org website, but it was curiously not functional until today. We had learned prior, a candidate receiving 85% would be allocated 100% of the Republican National Committee (RNC) Delegates.

This means with not running the table and Donald J Trump (R) receiving 232,919 votes or 68.92% will receive 27 RNC delegates and Nikki Haley (R) receiving 97,227 votes or 28.77% will receive RNC 12 delegates. Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN05) will receive no DNC delegates, and the legitimacy of his campaign premise, Biden’s age seems to be rejected by voters and is without merit.

On the DFL side, in spite of there being Democratic National Committee (DNC) delegates 92 total delegates only 75 are in play because 17 are designated as Automatic Party Leader and Elected Official delegates. Joe Biden (D) received 171,299 votes or 70.03% will receive a 70% percent of the allocation of delegates or 64. Uncommitted succeeded with 46,942 votes or 18.78% and will receive 11. Additionally, 49 of the delegates will be selected at the eight Congressional District Conventions, 10 additional PLEO’s and 16 At-Large are also chosen at the DFL State Convention.

The DFL Party sent out the following press release on the DNC Delegate Allocation.

https://dfl.org/press-release/dfl-announces-delegate-results-of-dfl-presidential-primary/

The NATIONAL DELEGATE SELECTION PLAN SUMMARY is listed in the DFL Call starting on page 23.

 

Questions Arising about the Future of the Party Caucuses

Minnesota Report

With the Presidential Primary occurring a week after the Precinct Caucuses, there have been numerous questions about the viability of the Caucus System itself. We have been having these discussions all week.

One would think this issue will be discussed at both state party conventions this election cycle. Issues of concern stem from low participation rates, technology and endorsements to name a few of the issues we are hearing.

Misclassification Fraud

Minnesota Report

On Monday, Attorney General Keith Ellison (DFL-MN), Rep Emma Greenman (DFL-63B, Minneapolis), Sen. Clare Oumou Verbeten (DFL-66, St Paul) and Department of Labor and Industry Commissioner Nicole Blissenbach held a press conference about employer misclassification fraud.

Now, to some this is the gig economy, which provides freedoms and opportunities not found in the traditional workplace, but to others, specifically the employees who are forced into 1099 or Independent Contractor roles, it is far different.

In legislation HF4444/SF4483 a more defined identification of the work, the ability of oversight between different state agencies and enforcement provisions are outlined. During the press conference we broached the question about where or not this was a bill targeted at Uber/Lyft and this is addressed by Greenman at the tail-end of the press conference.

The entirety of the press conference can be viewed here

Wanted Julie Blaha

Minnesota Report

While strolling down University Avenue, near Hamline we saw the following Wanted poster affixed to a Metro Transit Bus Shelter and thought it warranted attention. The organization calling for this is the Anti-War Committee, which is identifying the occupation of Palestine and ethnic cleansing as the offending action.

The 2024 February Revenue Forecast and the Debt Capacity Forecast

Minnesota Report

The numbers of the 2024 February Revenue Forecast provide a favorable outcome for the Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) Administration. As stated in the summary on the MMB website, “Minnesota’s budget and economic outlook has improved since November. The 2024-25 biennium is now projected to end with a surplus of $3.715 billion, an increase of $1.324 billion compared to November projections. The near-term economic outlook has improved, with growth expected to persist through 2027. Higher collections so far this fiscal year raise the current biennium forecast for all major tax types. Corporate tax revenue shows the largest change, driven by higher-than-expected corporate profits through the forecast horizon. Spending estimates are largely unchanged from November. The higher revenue forecast throughout the FY 2024-27 planning horizon results in improvement to the structural budgetary balance, but spending is still projected to exceed revenue through FY 2027.”

As the headline in Governing Magazine states, “Minnesota Officials Urge Fiscal Caution Despite $3.7B Surplus.

This means there is no need for any dramatic course correction, and as Walz said himself, “We will continue to follow our focus.” The projections largely support a structural balance, with some apprehension for the out years. This note of caution, is warranted because the economic outlook is somewhat tenuous, because of Vladimir Putin’s War on Ukraine and the Israeli conflict in Gaza, as well as the questions over the our nations relationship with China. It is global affairs which provide the variables in the nation’s economy, but here in Minnesota, where we regularly outpace the bulk of other state’s economically, in fact, Walz called attention to Minnesota’s leap ahead of Texas, which waas first called attention in July of 2023, Minnesota ranked as a top state for businesses, surpasses Texas.

What seems to be the worthy conclusion is the $3.7 billion surplus is on the bottom line a result of stable spending. The feature that undermines the criticism of the Republican rhetoric is Corporate Taxes are at an all time high. Walz in noting the factors that led to this economic benefit acknowledged his “incredible partners” (the DFL controlled legislature) and the positive policy positions along with the funding mechanisms put in place.

He placed focus of this legislative session as “Rebuilding Infrastructure and the changing in the budget as proving, “more space for bonding.” He also conveyed his intent to provide a supplemental “spending budget in a couple of weeks,” and also said, “we will stay close to the numbers we have now.”

Traditionally, we would ask our standard question about the state’s debt capacity, an due to an issue with the Governor’s staff we decided to forgo this, but we secured the information later from the department and received the Debt Capacity Forecast.

Here we will highlight the state’s guidelines:

1. Total tax-supported principal outstanding is 3.25% or less of total state personal income.

2. Total amount of principal (both issued, and authorized but unissued) for state general obligations, state moral obligations, equipment capital leases, and real estate capital leases are not to exceed 6% of state personal income.

3. 40% of general obligation debt is due within five years and 70% within ten years, if consistent with the useful life of the financed assets and/or market conditions.

Specifically, regarding capital investment with the $980 million for bonding as the upper-bound, the actually bond sale, could be even more beneficial if the interest rates begin to fall and in effect become a recognized vehicle for job growth.

We gleaned to themes from this press conference, which were a continuation of the idea of Minnesota being “The Best Place to Raise a Child” which is dovetailed with the Explore Minnesota tourism campaign, “Star of the North“.

One other factor Walz called attention to was the Alabama Invertro Fertilization decision and how Minnesota was likely to use this a way to differential our state from others.

As the legislative leaders took their turn, House Speaker Melissa Hortman (DFL-34B, Brooklyn Park) and new Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy (DFL-65, St Paul) enthusiastic supporters of the stability of our state’s financial future and Hortman emphasized the legislative work saying, “We will continue to work on cutting costs in child care, housing and in health care.” She further stated her caucus will prioritize workers because “workers are the key to a long-term stable economy,” further saying “Minnesota workers outpace the nation in terms of their productivity…and they are our priority at the legislature.”

She also let the room know that they had a nickname for the Governor’s Cabinet Room, called “Hotel California.”

In her comments, Murphy referred to the economic outlook as a “Durable Budget,” and lauded the senate work the upper body applied to the legislative work.

In the Question and Answer segment of the presser, Hortman was asked about the fact with 53 members of her caucus being new and thus having no experience being in the minority if they were likely to effectively overreach? She acknowledged, the relative institutional “youthfulness of her caucus” but gave no indication she lacked faith in their collective mindset.

Later, a question was asked about whether MN Care should have a opublic option, and Murphy, a nurse fielded that question, saying, “People have coverage, but can’t afford their care.”

The question delved into tax rates and Hortman spoke of how the entirety of the state benefited from the dispensation of LGA (Local Government Aid) and CPA (County Public Aid). She also commented about the in migration to Minnesota in result of the Dobbs decision, IVF decision and the state of abortion politics in general.

The Republican Response

In general, when we heard the opening remarks from House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth (R-13A, Cold Spring) it was a d`eja’vu moment as a blast to the past, with the rhetoric of tax and spend Democrats leading into a Boom and Bust Economy. To which we will say, no that was the tax cuts of the Jesse Ventura Administration and the following Tim Pawlenty Administration that saw perpetual deficits. What is more applicable to a Boom and Bust Economy than that?

Her conjecture of the pending structural deficit due to an expenditure of $1.5 Billion than the statew would be taking in also expects a poorer performing economy, of which Minnesota has proven just the opposite.

Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson (R-01, East Grand Forks) echoed Demuth’s thoughts but offered up nothing more in the way of anything novel or unique. It felt like a Back to the Future experience.

The entirety of the press conference can be seen here.

Trump Polling Numbers in Key States Falter

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Senate Bonding Then and Now (2018 v 2020)

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Minnesota Department of Health COVID-19 Page

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Trump’s Continued Call for Hydroxychloroquine

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Walz Executive Orders During Pandemic

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The Coming of the Four Horsemen

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2018 House State Fair Poll

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2018 Senate State Fair Poll

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Leadership Shuffles

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Legislative Return/Special Session 2020

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Alcohol From Restaurant to You

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