News Releases
Can Biden Appeal to the Palestinian/Muslim Supporters and Does He Really Have To?
National Report & Minnesota Report
The summer of 2024 will be a long one for President Joe Biden (D). This will literally be the longest Presidential Campaign in modern history, because the competitors are known so early in the nomination process. It is common knowledge the sequel election between Biden and Donald J Trump (R) will be fought largely in the seven swing states of Arizona (AZ), Georgia (GA), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC), Nevada (NV), Pennsylvania (PA), and Wisconsin (WI). Of these four AZ, GA, PA, and WI have gubernatorial elections, which might significantly impact the elections in those battlegrounds due to how strongly each candidate ties themselves to the top of the ticket. Additionally, MI and AZ have open US Senate seat elections, which should increase turnout and again the proximity the presidential candidates will play a factor for each candidate both ways, top down and bottom up.
When Checks & Balances commenced publishing December 8, 1995, our focus was on swing voters and moderate voices, which now have gone virtually extinct.
Since Biden only won all seven states swing states by less than 3% local issues and the war in Gaza may come into play, but the appeasement he has tried in regards suspension of the delivery of large munitions doesn’t seem to have helped and in fact may have hurt with his base. The greatest factor for Biden is Trump and that hasn’t changed since 2020. What is at hand here is Trump’s electoral ceiling which seems to be sit at 42% across the various states, but when the issues of inflation or fundamental change in the system are focused on Trump’s support increases.
Not surprisingly, abortion is Biden’s hole card, because Trump provides a clear assist when he touts his 3 US Supreme Court selections, who overturned Roe v Wade. This may stimulate disaffected voters and additionally the reclassification and decriminalization of marijuana to a Category 3 drug might provide an additional appeal. The nagging issue is Inflation and the costs, which will never likely go down, are a constant reminder of the state of the economy, but while people wax nostalgically about the Trump era, they place the burden on the wrong set of shoulders. Inflation was directly a result of policies of the Trump Administration and the impact of his failure to address the pandemic other than cursorily. Trump denial of the full scope of the pandemic because he will never accept credit for failure is why Biden had to act far more aggressively and actually got the nation on a more solid footing.
Today, wages are up in most parts of the nation and are ahead of inflation, but the hangover is still with us. Once the Federal Reserve decides that the economy has cooled to a point where they can cut prime interest rates things will seem to languish. This will be a long, hot summer financially and literally due to climate change and again another issue that Trump denies is real.
Passage of Laws in the 2024 Legislative Session
Minnesota Report
To date, there have been 24 bills presented to Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) and all have been signed into law. https://www.revisor.mn.gov/laws/current/ The question remains whether or not any proposed Constitutional Amendments will be on the November ballot. It is worth noting last legislative session the only legislation vetoed by the governor was the Uber/Lyft ride share bill, which is still a bone of contention at the State Capitol this session. The threat of a pullout by Uber/Lyft on June 1st, is still a dark cloud hanging over the debate and the every proposed modification seems not to eliminate the warning.
There are two camps formed which are the Call Your Bluff Caucus and the Please Don’t Leave Caucus. Those lacking a vehicle, especially physically challenged people without wheelchairs are those being played with as pawns, and developing some semblance of sympathy. The footprint of Uber, is the overarching 300 lb. gorilla and the question following their departure would be how long will it take to fill the void?
With exactly one week left in the session, the refinement of the Cannabis Law, Uber/Lyft, and the most important matter, a Bonding Bill are the major issues at hand. We also expect he gulf between the House and Senate Tax chairs is quite wide and will not like result in a Tax Bill, which because this is a second half of the biennial session and is a bonding year and the laws are in place it is not necessary pass any legislative funding issues.
We believe in spite of there being a House floor vote on the Ranked Choice Voting opportunity on local elections across the state without the need for city council action or a local referendum. HF3276 will not pass the Senate and it might not even get a floor vote in the upper chamber. We know this is not a favorable issue for Senate Republicans, but we also know of at least three DFL Senators, with whom, we have personally spoken and will oppose the bill.
There Still Are Pot Parties, But None of Them Are Major Anymore
Minnesota Report
On Friday, the MN State Supreme Court released its ruling on the case brought by DFL Party Chair Ken Martin against Secretary of State Steve Simon (DFL-MN) and the Legal Marijuana Now Party over their major party status. The court ruled Legal Marijuana Now Party has not maintained the rudimentary requirements of maintaining a State Central Committee and thereby does not met the status test. Once again attorney Erich Kaardal, usually an attorney for the Minnesota Republican Party on campaign and politically related matters, suffered another defeat at the hands of DFL Party attorney Charles Nauen.
This shows a linkage between the two interests, because it has been clear since their inception the “Pot Parties” have played a past role in elections, benefiting and facilitating Republican Party victories in legislative elections. The candidates endorsed by Legal Marijuana Now Party and the Grassroots Legalize Cannabis Party will still have ballot access if their candidates meet the minimum requirements to do so, collecting the required 2,000 signatures for statewide races, 1,000 for congressional races, and 500 for legislative races by June 4th, and paying the filing fee, but the party will no longer receive state money from the political contribution fund.
This is largely an empirical victory for the DFL.
As Expected, Mitchell Remains Mute
Minnesota Report
The Senate Ethic Committee convened yesterday later than anticipated, but did address two complaints. One against Sen. Nicole Mitchell (DFL-57, Woodbury) for her alleged felony burglary of her stepmother’s home and another for Sen Glenn Grunehagen (R-17, Glencoe) for sending a video of the medical procedures involved in gender reassignment surgery to all of his fellow senators.
The Rules and Administration Subcommittee Ethics Conduct is Chaired by Senate President Bobby Jo Champion (DFL-59, Minneapolis) and is equally weighted with members from both party’s. Sens Mary Kunesh (DFL-39, New Brighton), Andrew Mathews (R-27, Princeton) and former Senate Majority Leader Jeremy Miller (R-26, Winona).
During the Mitchell proceeding, the senator remained quiet and allowed her attorney Bruce Ringstrom Jr, who, on her behalf pleaded the Fifth Amendment and expressed the legal argument “This case belongs in court, then it can be dealt with by this subcommittee.” At this point in time, her focus seems clearly to be on the court proceeding and the political issues will remain secondary.
DFL Senate Director of Media/Communications Marc Kimball advanced a simple fact of which is, neither the House or Senate have acted on an ethics complaint before a court case has been resolved in at least 40 years.
Standing in judgment over a fellow senator is not an enviable position to have, since all understand the personal impact, and not all matters make it to a formal complaint and these are also not addressed in all deliberate speed. The complaint again Grunehagen was filed by Sen Erin Maye Quaid (DFL-56, Apple Valley) on April 20, 2023.
The subcommittee agreed to reconvene on the Mitchell matter on June 12th, unless any new information comes to light.
When is the Legislative Session Ending Deadline?
Minnesota Report
We have heard people broaching questions about the allowable activity on the last day of the legislative session. This starts from a question of two correlated constitutional sections, listed below. What is at issue is can the legislature pass any legislation on the last day of the legislative session if, they have not reached the Constitutional Deadline on the first Monday after the third Saturday of May. The question being asked is can any legislation pass after the 120 legislative days are exhausted?
We believe the answer is no, with a big But. The but is they can pass legislation during a legislative day, which doesn’t end until 7:59 am on the following day. Now, in the old days, there was a maneuver of covering the clock, which was not a regular practice, but by shrouding the legislative clock in the chamber, the legislature could continue it business.
In order for the legislature to operate past 120 legislative days or after May 29th the governor would need to call a Special Session. Now, we have seen short one day sessions called to finish the work, but this is usually a set agreement and they come in adjourn Sine Die and then reconvene once the Special Session proclamation in communicated.
Article IV Sec. 12. Biennial meetings; length of session; special sessions; length of adjournments.
The legislature shall meet at the seat of government in regular session in each biennium at the times prescribed by law for not exceeding a total of 120 legislative days. The legislature shall not meet in regular session, nor in any adjournment thereof, after the first Monday following the third Saturday in May of any year. After meeting at a time prescribed by law, the legislature may adjourn to another time. “Legislative day” shall be defined by law. A special session of the legislature may be called by the governor on extraordinary occasions.
Neither house during a session of the legislature shall adjourn for more than three days (Sundays excepted) nor to any other place than that in which the two houses shall be assembled without the consent of the other house.
Article IV Sec. 21. Passage of bills on last day of session prohibited.
No bill shall be passed by either house upon the day prescribed for adjournment. This section shall not preclude the enrollment of a bill or its transmittal from one house to the other or to the executive for his signature.
What if Trump Died Tomorrow?
National & Minnesota Report
Many people wish for this to be true, but no one should wish death on anyone, no matter whom it is. Now, a trial for treason and a public hanging or shooting by firing squad is a different question.
Truly, the question posed in the headline is a serious one, if Donald J Trump (R) were to die tomorrow, what would the GOP (Grand Old Party) stand for? Seriously, its an open question and one worth exploring? What are the core principles of the GOP? Are they bedrock? Are these definitive and embraced ubiquitously in all quarters across the nation or are they merely a dogmatic, sycophantic adherence to a person?
This is the definition of a cult and hence a cult-a-personality. So, the next time you see a person sporting a red MAGA hat or a Nazi-like t-shirt saying, “Make American Great Again,” ask them what does being a Republican mean to them. What are the principles they believe in and when the silence provides the deafening roar, just nod your head and understand this cultist before you has forgone their understanding of why this country exists, and is merely a slovenly dedicated person to the big orange orangutan, seeking knuckle draggers to the left and knuckle draggers to the right.
Innocent Until Proven Guilty
Minnesota Report
This legal parlance is getting a serious dosage of a challenge. On Sunday, a decision was reached regarding one aspect of the fate of Sen Nicole Mitchell (DFL-57, Woodbury). Her legislative responsibilities have been curtailed, not to the nth degree, but as far as committee and caucus duties, although she is not precluded from floor responsibilities, which is what truly matters.
With a 34-vote-DFL Majority, and the session hanging in the balance, vote although tainted, is essential to final passage of every single piece of legislation this legislative session. The opinions of House Speaker Melissa Hortman (DFL-34B, Brooklyn Park) or Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy (DFL-64, St Paul) and Mitchell’s colleagues may be nice, but as long as the DFL stays unified, Mitchell is the ultimate decider. And unless, she is convicted for felony burglary, she will be able to serve out the balance of her term.
If she decides to cast her vote remotely votes early on the board, and doesn’t remain a hold-out casting her vote at the end of the tabulation, she will be the arbitrator of all that occurs and is sent to the desk of Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN).
We will argue, this is a serious opportunity for a legislator like Sen Jim Abeler (R
What”s Wrong with the Party Activists in the 7th Congressional District GOP?
National & Minnesota Report
On Saturday, the delegates to the 7th Congressional District endorsing convention collectively chose to deny 2nd term incumbent Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach (R-MN07) their endorsement for reelection. Instead they tacitly chose to deny her the requisite 60% and in turn provided a function minority is support of Steve Boyd, a candidate who self-describes as a “grassroots America First conservative.”
Fischbach, by all accounts, whose conservative credentials are firmly intact both fiscally and socially throughout her political career. She is married to the Executive Director of the MCCL, (Minnesotan’s Concerned for Life) and in the late 1990’s facilitated by then Senate GOP Communications Director Brian McClung, the Ax the Car Tax Campaign, broadly advertised here on Checks & Balances.
If Fischbach is not conservative enough for the party activists in her own district, then maybe, just maybe, the impact of the nitrate filled aquifers across the district, which were caused by the petrol-chemical fertilizers spread on the corn, soybeans and sugar beets across the 7th are having a serious impact.
Since, Fischbach has been endorsed by the loser Donald J Trump (R) in her reelection campaign, it’s clearly not the cultists who are behaving badly.
The Entirety of the 2024 Legislative Session Hangs in the Balance By a Thread
Minnesota Report
The arrest and felony burglary charge on Sen Nicole Mitchell (DFL-47, Woodbury) has been come the titillating twist and scintillating subject matter saturating the entirety of the conversations through the Minnesota political establishment. All legislative action has ground to a halt because the Minnesota Senate is sitting at a 33 DFL-33 Republican tie.
The Republican minority up until this time lacked any leverage to stop legislation because the DFL majority ran roughshod over them and maintained complete unanimity among themselves, under the leadership of Sen Kari Dziedzic (DFL-60, Minneapolis) last legislative session. After Dziedzic stepped down due to an adverse ovarian cancer fight and the caucus selected Sen Erin Murphy (DFL-64, St Paul) as the replacement the ship seemed to right itself, and continued to steam ahead.
The Senate Republican Caucus filed this Ethics complaint against Sen Nicole Mitchell.
With this latest blunder by one of its own members, which reads like an episode of Dumbest Thieves Caught on Camera, sans camera, everything that was hanging in the balance, remains in limbo. The outcome, which seemed predetermined is now a mere question mark. The Republican caucus appears prepared to stall every floor action to a halt and debate the question over what to do about one of their fellow senators future relationship with the body.
Yesterday, Sen Eric Lucero (R-30, Saint Michael) a known firebrand, and member of the cohort of the four former Representatives who left the lower house and joined the Senate last election, put forward a motion to call for an expedited ethics investigation of Mitchell, which failed on a party line vote. He and fellow Senator Steve Drazkowski (R-20, Mazeppa) are never shy about claiming the limelight and stirring the debate with agitative rhetoric on the floor of whichever body in which they stand. Because of the Constitutionally required legislative endpoint of May 20th, and the fact much legislation remains unfinished, the ethic process becomes an important focus.
There are no “traditions” about ethics of which can be called upon and the extreme position is for the Senate to expel one of its own. This requires a 2/3rds majority of the body to do so, since Mitchell could not vote for herself, it would necessitate eleven members of the DFL to join with the Republicans to do so. Not happening.
This means the phrase Due Process become sacrosanct for the members of the DFL.
It is through process, protocols and procedure that this issue will be addressed by the DFL, which still holds majority, but unless Mitchell appears is unable to exercise its power, although in a neutered form, they can. The ability to remotely vote, which is in force, and utilized by Dziedzic, Sen Lindsey Port (DFL-55, Apple Valley) and frequently by Sen. Andrew Lang (R-16, Olivia) is a way around the problem, but again the debate will shift and the focus applied to Mitchell’s participation in anyway.
Her committee activity will not matter much since the DFL has tactically, applied a larger than needed majority on each committee in which she serves, which was a bone of contention in the early part of last legislative session, and now seems like a prescient decision.
Everyone knows all legislative work on the floor of the senate is determined by all members of the majority being present and accounted for.
These means there will be hours of debates over process and procedure. Already, the State Constitution is being invoked as is the floor rules as established by Mason’s, but the lack of precedence of the body disciplining one of its own is where the magic will occur for Majority Leader Murphy.
As of now, the process is the Rules and Administration Subcommittee on Ethics has up to 30 days to be called and lacking any definitive court action in Becker County, where the alleged crime took place, it seems to be the maximum time frame will be applied.
2024 First Quarter Campaign Finance Reports for the State’s Political Parties and Legislative Caucuses
Minnesota Report
The pre-Primary filings for the different parties and caucuses are in and as it is our tradition we compile them for your perusal.
DFL Party (MN DFL Central Committee)
|
Beginning Cash |
948,697.73 |
|
Total Receipts |
1,416,185.26 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
944,291.03 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
1,420,591.96 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
|
Beginning Cash |
42,466.69 |
|
Total Receipts |
60,070.00 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
45,318.20 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
57,218.49 |
| Total debt of committee |
103,065.31 |
Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party
|
Beginning Cash |
4,894.82 |
|
Total Receipts |
900.00 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
50.00 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
5,744.82 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
|
Beginning Cash |
764.34 |
| Total Receipts |
882.00 |
| Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
830.00 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
816.34 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
|
Beginning Cash |
1,225,955.63 |
|
Total Receipts |
774,416.76 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
323,455.80 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
1,676,916.59 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
|
Beginning Cash |
877,422.77 |
|
Total Receipts |
385,390.57 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
184,523.10 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
1,078,290.24 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
Republican House Caucus (HRCC)
|
Beginning Cash |
700,326.60 |
|
Total Receipts |
289,593.61 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
168,558.79 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
821,361.42 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
Republican Senate Caucus (Senate Victory Fund)
</tr
|
Beginning Cash |
1,237,683.59 |
|
Total Receipts |
247,238.79 |
|
Total Expenditures and Disbursements |
129,063.98 |
| Ending Cash Balance |
1,355,858.40 |
| Total debt of committee |
0.00 |
Trump Polling Numbers in Key States Falter
National and Minnesota Report Yesterday, articles in the New York Times and the Washington Post spelled good news for the former Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign (D). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html...
Senate Bonding Then and Now (2018 v 2020)
Minnesota Report Two years ago, the Republican controlled State Senate brought forward it’s Capitol Investment Bill, which failed to pass on a party line vote of 34-33, seven votes short of the 2/3rds majority of 41 votes. What is interesting I what the Republicans...
Mayo Clinic Challenging Trump’s Push of Malaria Drugs
Minnesota Report The Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN has released a medical advisory in direct response to Donald J Trump's (R) call of the use of hydroxychloroquine and erythromycin.Guidance on patients at risk of drug-induced sudden cardiac death from off-label...
Minnesota Department of Health COVID-19 Page
Minnesota Report On Friday, Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) along with Commissioner Jan Malcolm released the State of Minnesota’s comprehensive COVID-19 page on the Department of Health’s Website. Additionally, the MN House also has a page which provides more and...
Trump’s Continued Call for Hydroxychloroquine
National Report In spite of not having scientific support for his position Donald J Trump (R) continues to put forward his contention that the use of Hydroxychloroquine a drug for Malaria and Lupus and Erythromycin a drug for bacterial infections as a panacea to the...
Walz Executive Orders During Pandemic
Minnesota Report As we are in the midst of the second week of the Stay at Home Executive Order 20-20 more orders are coming from Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) to stipulate what options are available to our state’s citizens. Today, Executive Order 20-25 Authorizing Peace...
The Coming of the Four Horsemen
If you want to be memorable in Minnesota State Capitol politics it is good if you are referred to as something other than your name. It is often helpful when a term or a phrase can be applied to your, group, issue or initiative. If you want to be known as something...
First Paid Political Advertisement Ran Here 21 Years Ago
There were a number of firsts that occurred in the 1998 Governor's race besides the My Three Sons Primary and the election of third-party candidate Jesse Ventura, In 1997, the Ted Mondale for Governor campaign took out, what is known as the First Paid Political...
2018 House State Fair Poll
Minnesota Report We at Checks & Balances are continuing our tradition of publishing the State Fair Polls found at the State Fair booths in the Education Building. Again, as we have said before, these provide an insight into the mindset and the issues of interest...
2018 Senate State Fair Poll
Minnesota Report State Senate 2016 State Fair Poll Questions (Choose one answer per question) Demographics Residence Minneapolis/St. Paul Rural Suburban Regional hub of at least 40,000 people (Rochester, Duluth, St. Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead) Another state No...
Leadership Shuffles
Minnesota Report First, it was the rapid one-week ouster of Republican Party Chair Jennifer Carnahan, then the announcement by Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka (R-09, Nisswa) leaving the leadership post and not seeking reelection, followed by the more surprising...
The Best Example of the Legislative Chasm: Bonding Bill
Minnesota Report DFLers and Republicans are at odds over whether or not a Bonding Bill is a Jobs Bill. The two sides are also at loggerheads over whether or not long-term spending through bonds is a prudent fiscal decision. The cost of spending for a government backed...
Legislative Session Ends with a Flatulence in a Wind Funnel or FWF
Minnesota Report When competing political ideologies are at play, the ability to achieve consensus is a far way island, and reaching it, is a distant, remote and implausible likelihood. The reason being political people are hard-pressed to see beyond their own vested...
Legislative Return/Special Session 2020
Minnesota Report We are hearing the legislature will likely be recalled for Special Session June 12th, which is just before Governor Tim Walz’ (DFL-MN) last peacetime emergency declaration is set to expire. In order to declare another one, he will need to receive...
Alcohol From Restaurant to You
Minnesota Report The House and the Senate have agreed to allow alcohol sales to be purchased from restaurants, during the COVID-19 crisis, but only beer and wine. The problem with this is with liquor stores still open the cost will be higher without an added benefit,...