National and Minnesota Report

Yesterday, articles in the New York Times and the Washington Post spelled good news for the former Vice-President Joe Biden’s campaign (D). https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.htmlhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/25/massive-shift-away-trump-six-key-states-indicates-serious-trouble-his-reelection-bid/ In each, they show these key states to have made a significant move away from Donald J Trump (R) demographically and by issues of concern.

We contend the 2016 election number for Trump to be the high water marks of his political career and will be the limits of his reelection bid. We took those numbers for these six battleground states, Florida, Michigan North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvanian, Wisconsin added Minnesota, Arizona and provided the US popular vote figures to show how close the election could be.

The key factual difference between 2016 and 2020 is the lack of significant third-party/write-in candidates, which ranged from 3.75% in Pennsylvania to 9.32% in Arizona. We extrapolated the numbers to apply Trump’s 2016 results to the 2018 turnout numbers, which were promoted as historically large, but still lower than in a Presidential Election year and show the potential impact of low turnout. When applied Trump prevails in all of these states, including Minnesota, but when a 5% higher turnout over 2016 is shown, he is trounced in each state.

The motivations on both sides are high, but as is always the case, higher voter turnout favors Democratic candidates. This is why the impact of voter suppression is paramount to address because that is the only manner Republicans can prevail especially in states like Kentucky, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will have a challenging race no matter if his opponent is state Rep Charles Booker (D-KY) or retired Marine Lt Colonel Amy McGrath (D-KY). In Alabama where US Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) is attempting to hold on to his seat against either former Attorney General and US Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) or former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) to be decided by a July 14th Primary. In Georgia, both Senate seats are up. US Senator David Perdue (R-GA) is seeking standard reelection for his term and US Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) is seeking election following her appointment earlier this year.

In the battleground states, here in MN, US Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) faces her own reelection after being elected in her own right in 2018 to fill the balance of Al Franken’s term, and now seeks reelection to a full six-year term. In AZ, Martha McSally (R-AZ) is seeking election after her appointment to fill the balance of John McCain’s term. In MI, Gary Peters (D-MI) will feel the full effect of the Trump campaign as he seeks reelection and in NC, Thom Tillis (R-NC) will also experience the Trump factor in the Tarheel state as he seeks his second term.

The Trump effects are felt in other key US Senate election in Maine where US Senator Susan Collins (R-MA) is seeking her fifth term and in Colorado where US Senator Corey Gardner (R-CO) faces his first reelection. The US Senate majority is as important as the Presidential election, especially if Democrats want to extract all of the impact of the Trump Administration, where possible.

State 2016 Vote Total Trump Trump % Clinton Clinton %  Third Party   Write-In 2018 Vote Total 2016/2018  Vote Difference 2016/2018       Vote Difference % Trump 2016 Applied 2018 2016 Increase +5% Trump 2020 % Notes
MN 2,944,813 1,322,951 44.92% 1,367,716 46.44% 8.63% 2,587,356 -357,457 -12.14% 51.13% 3,092,054 0.43%
AZ 2,661,497 1,252,401 47.06% 1,161,167 43.63% 9.32% 2,409,910 -251,587 -9.45% 51.97% 2,794,572 0.45%
FL 9,618,915 4,617,886 48.01% 4,504,975 46.83% 5.16% 8,276,774 -1,342,141 -13.95% 55.79% 10,099,861 0.46%
MI 4,799,284 2,279,543 47.50% 2,268,839 47.27% 5.23% 4,250,585 -548,699 -11.43% 53.63% 5,039,248 0.45%
NC 4,741,564 2,362,631 49.83% 2,189,316 46.17% 4.00% 3,663,308 -1,078,256 -22.74% 64.49% 4,978,642 0.47% No statewide election in 2018
OH 5,607,641 2,841,005 50.66% 2,394,164 42.69% 6.64% 4,503,116 -1,104,525 -19.70% 63.09% 5,888,023 0.48%
PA 6,115,402 2,970,733 48.58% 2,926,441 47.85% 3.57% 5,012,555 -1,102,847 -18.03% 59.27% 6,421,172 0.46%
WI 2,976,150 1,405,284 47.22% 1,382,536 46.45% 6.33% 2,673,308 -302,842 -10.18% 52.57% 3,124,958 0.45%
US 138,846,571 62,984,828 45.36% 65,853,514 47.43% 5.04% 118,581,921 -20,264,650 -14.59% 53.12% 145,788,900 0.43%