Minnesota Report
There has been growing speculation that some Republican primary voters may choose to cross over and vote in the DFL primary. The rationale, according to many of these discussions, is concern that Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN) could become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate. Some Republicans view Flanagan as representing the progressive wing of the DFL and believe that preventing her nomination should take precedence over voting in their own party’s primary. Republicans are calling her a Socialist, and with US Senator Bernie Sanders (DSC-VT) stumping for her in Minneapolis last night, she sure looks like one.
However, those considering this strategy should recognize that such a decision could produce unintended consequences elsewhere on the ballot.
US Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), like Flanagan, is the DFL-endorsed candidate and is widely expected to win reelection. If that occurs, and she resigns right before her swearing-in, she would appoint her successor until a special election is held under Minnesota law. Consequently, the outcome of the DFL primary could have implications beyond the Senate race itself.
The larger political question is whether significant Republican crossover voting could weaken the GOP’s performance in statewide races by reducing participation in Republican primaries or diverting attention from down-ballot contests. Republicans have struggled to win statewide constitutional offices in Minnesota. The last Republican elected governor was Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) in 2006, when he won with 46.69%, a plurality of the vote in a three-way race.
This brings us once again to what we call The Checks & Balances Statewide Election Rule. Historically, Minnesota’s electorate has generally consisted of approximately:
- 43% reliable DFL voters
- 37% reliable Republican voters
- 20% independent or unaffiliated voters
While these percentages fluctuate slightly from election to election, the unaffiliated vote typically determines the outcome of competitive statewide races and, lacking a viable third choice, tends to follow the major party breakdowns.
Third-party candidates can also significantly influence election results by drawing support from voters who might otherwise support one of the major parties. The 2006 gubernatorial election provides a useful example. Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson received 6.43% of the vote. Although much of the independent vote ultimately went to the two major-party candidates, the dynamics of the race favored Tim Pawlenty.
The DFL campaign was further damaged by a widely publicized campaign stumble involving Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mike Hatch (DFL-MN) and his meltdown, over his running mate, Judi Dutcher, during a debate over ethanol policy. Many political observers believe that episode reinforced concerns about the campaign during the closing weeks of the election. As a result, Hatch’s final vote total only modestly exceeded the DFL’s traditional statewide base, while Pawlenty significantly outperformed the Republican baseline and secured a plurality victory.
Whether Republican voters should cross over into the DFL primary is ultimately a strategic question. However, history suggests that actions taken to influence one race can sometimes produce unintended consequences in others. Minnesota’s statewide elections have repeatedly demonstrated that small shifts in voter behavior—particularly among independents and crossover voters—can determine not only who wins a particular contest, but also the overall political landscape.