Minnesota Report
Since she was elected to the US Senate Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has proven to be a strong statewide candidate.
Here are here performance numbers over her four elections.
| Year | Raw # | % |
| 2006 | 1,278,849 | 58.06% |
| 2012* | 1,854,595 | 65.23% |
| 2018 | 1,566,174 | 60.31% |
| 2024* | 1,792,441 | 56.20% |
*Presidential Election Year
Minnesota Governor 2026 – Klobuchar (D) vs. Demuth (R)
Open governorship – Tim Walz not running. All polls are Klobuchar vs Lisa Demuth.
Full poll list from Pollsmax:
| Source | Date | Sample | Klobuchar | Demuth | Margin |
| KTSP / SurveyUSA (D) | Oct 12, 2026 | 718 LV | 48% | 41% | D+7.0 |
| Morning Consult | Oct 7, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 48% | 39% | D+9.0 |
| KARE 11 / Star Tribune – Minnesota Poll | Oct 7, 2026 | 800 LV | 50% | 41% | D+9.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | Sep 15, 2026 | 833 LV | 47% | 45% | D+2.0 |
| SurveyUSA (D) | Sep 14, 2026 | 654 LV | 47% | 40% | D+7.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | Sep 2, 2026 | 1,201 LV | 49% | 40% | D+9.6 |
| KTSP / SurveyUSA (D) | Aug 17, 2026 | 661 LV | 51% | 36% | D+15.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | Jun 10, 2026 | 800 RV | 48% | 40% | D+8.0 |
| Emerson College | Feb 8, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 51% | 38% | D+13.0 |
| SurveyUSA (D) | Jan 30, 2026 | 575 RV | 49% | 34% | D+15.0 |
| SurveyUSA (D) | Sep 18, 2025 | 568 LV | 46% | 41% | D+5.0 |
Aggregate Result – Governor:
- Pollsmax average: 48.5% D / 40.8% R, Margin D +7.7, 11 polls included, last updated 12:00 AM Oct 27, 2026
- PollingSource latest in average: SurveyUSA Oct 12 found Klobuchar 48% Demuth 41%
- Other aggregator check: Morning Consult and Star Tribune both showing D+9 at 48-50% to 39-41% in October.
Race is rated Safe D by forecasters.
- Minnesota US Senate 2026 – Flanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R)
Open seat – Tina Smith retiring. Democrat Peggy Flanagan vs Republican Michele Tafoya. Libertarian Rebecca Whiting and unaffiliated Marisa Simonetti also on ballot at 2% each in October polling.
Full poll list from PollingSource / RCP:
| Source | Date | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Margin |
| New York Times / Siena College
Rasmussen Reports |
Oct 19-26, 2026
Oct 21, 2026 |
752 LV
1182 LV |
54.00%
48.00% |
40.00%
45.00% |
D+14
D+3 |
| Trafalgar Group R-sponsored | Oct 15, 2026 | 1079 LV | 48.00% | 45.00% | D+3 |
| KSTP / SurveyUSA | Oct 12, 2026 | 718 LV | 45.00% | 42.00% | D+3 |
| Mason-Dixon / Star Tribune | Oct 7, 2026 | 800 LV | 47.00% | 43.00% | D+4 |
| Morning Consult | Oct 7, 2026 | 1000 RV | 45.00% | 41.00% | D+4 |
| GQR (D) | Oct 4, 2026 | 800 LV | 50.00% | 42.00% | D+8 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 30, 2026 | 622 LV | 46.00% | 44.00% | D+2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 29, 2026 | 1200 LV | 46.00% | 45.00% | D+1 |
Aggregate Result – Senate:
- Senate aggregate: 47.9% D / 43.3% R, Margin D +4.6, 17 polls included, forecast gives Flanagan 85.8% chance to win with projected vote 53.5% D / 46.5% R, Rated Likely D
- 3-poll average: Democrat 47.0%, Republican 44.0%, Margin D+3.0, Lean D
- 270toWin 4-poll average cited in press: Flanagan 44.8% to 43.3%
- Betting Markets – Current Numbers Oct 27, 2026
Governor:
- Kalshi – Minnesota Governor winner? Amy Klobuchar 95%, Lisa Demuth 5%, $647,276 volume, with forecast margin D +11.1
- Octagon/Kalshi model: Klobuchar 96% Octagon 96%
Senate:
- Kalshi – Minnesota Senate Winner: Flanagan trading at 87% implied probability after peaking at over 94% in August
- Polymarket – Senate: Gives Peggy Flanagan (D) an 83% chance to hold the seat, Michele Tafoya (R) an 18% chance
Combo Market:
- Polymarket – Minnesota Senate and Governor Combo: 4 outcomes, $24.6K total trading volume since Aug 19 launch. Current leading outcome is “Dems sweep” at 83%, followed by “Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate” at 13%. Full market description says same: 83% Dems sweep, 13% split
Latest numbers in regards to the Trump approval rate.
- New York Times / Siena – Oct 19-26, 2026 – 752 LV: 35% approve, 62% disapprove
- Star Tribune / KARE 11 / Mason-Dixon – Oct 5-7, 2026 – 800 LV: 38% approve, 58% disapproval, marking a 3% decline in approval compared to June
- World Population Review tracker average: Minnesota 34% approve, 60% disapprove
- UnitedStatesPolling.com / earlier October tracker: 40% approve, 57% disapprove
Inside the numbers:
- Regional split: 22% approval in Hennepin and Ramsey counties versus 52% in northern Minnesota
- Intensity: 57% of likely voters have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump
- Generic ballot in same NYT/Siena MN poll: Democrats lead by 18 points
For context, Trump lost Minnesota by 4.2% in 2024 (50.9% Harris to 46.7% Trump) – one of only 3 states he lost while winning the Electoral College 312-226. Minnesota has not voted Republican for President since 1972.