We have looked at the thirteen house districts in which the incumbent is retiring and have seen an interesting picture. There are nine DFLers, two are freshmen, and four Republicans. Each of the Republican seats are in rural districts and are veritable safe Republican seats. The two retiring freshmen are in swing seats and the bulk of the other DFL seats should remain in DFL control with the excepting of 25B, in Rochester which should prove to be a challenge for retention, but likely will remain in DFL hands if the candidate works hard.
We see seats 25B, 56A and 56B all being on the DFL target list. Based on this list there isn’t much of a threat to the DFL Majority.
We have listed the election results for the 2016 Donald J Trump (R) campaign and the 2018 results for Tim Walz in each locality to provide a better understanding of the political landscape, in each of the districts.
|Retiree||Party||Open Seat||DFL Endorsed Candidate||Republican Endorsed Candidate||GLCP Candidate||LMN Candidate||Election Result 2018||Election Result 2016||Trump Factor||Walz Effect||Notes|
|Dan Fabin||R||01A||Connie Lindstrom||John Burkel||N/A||N/A||71.14%||74.24%||64.60%||36.15%||Rural District/Good Republican Seat|
|Ben Lien||DFL||04A||Heather Keeler||Edwin Hahn||N/A||N/A||65.45%||62.20%||41.27%||56.08%||Rural District-Regional Center/Good DFL Seat|
|Bud Norness||R||08A||Brittany Johnson||Jordan Rasmusson||N/A||N/A||59.77%||65.19%||62.50%||37.92%||Rural District/Good Republican Seat|
|Jack Considine||DFL||19B||Luke Frederick||Joe Steck||N/A||N/A||63.40%||59.55%||40.51%||63.13%||Rural District-Regional Center/Good DFL Seat|
|Bob Vogel||R||20A||Erina Prom||Alan Mackenthun, Marko Popovich, Brian Pfarr*||N/A||N/A||63.55%||60.81%||62.17%||39.18%||Rural District/Safe Republican|
|Bob Gunther||R||23A||Open||Christian Bjorn Olson, Michael J Sukalski*||N/A||N/A||61.26%||68.14%||65.92%||38.61%||Rural District/Safe Republican|
|Duane Sauke||DFL||25B||Liz Boldon||Steve Wilson||N/A||N/A||60.10%||51.79%||39.79%||58.63%||Rural District-Regional Center/Swing Seat|
|Mary Kunesh-Podein||DFL||41B||Sandra Feist||Open||N/A||N/A||65.77%||63.24%||28.81%||68.06%||Suburban District/Safe DFL|
|Lyndon Carlson||DFL||45A||Cedrick Frazier||Jesse Pfliger||N/A||N/A||65.35%||56.80%||33.19%||62.02%||Suburban District/Safe DFL|
|Hunter Cantrell||DFL||56A||Jess Hanson||Open||N/A||N/A||52.74%||55.96%||43.74%||51.90%||Suburban District/Swing Seat changed to DFL 2018|
|Alice Mann||DFL||56B||Kaela Berg||Roz Peterson||N/A||N/A||52.64%||52.37%||43.48%||52.90%||Suburban District/Swing Seat changed to DFL 2018|
|Jean Wagenius||DFL||63B||Emma Greenman||Open||N/A||N/A||80.83%||76.19%||18.41%||78.45%||Urban District/Safe DFL|
|Tim Mahoney||DFL||67A||John Thompson||Open||N/A||N/A||96.41%||76.34%||21.38%||72.53%||Urban District/Safe DFL|
|*Registered w/ Campaign Finance|
When we looked on the Republican Party website looking for their endorsed candidates we saw some revisionist history. The MN GOP is still displaying the state house member list from 2018 and they were listed as senate members.