Minnesota Report

We have looked at the thirteen house districts in which the incumbent is retiring and have seen an interesting picture. There are nine DFLers, two are freshmen, and four Republicans. Each of the Republican seats are in rural districts and are veritable safe Republican seats. The two retiring freshmen are in swing seats and the bulk of the other DFL seats should remain in DFL control with the excepting of 25B, in Rochester which should prove to be a challenge for retention, but likely will remain in DFL hands if the candidate works hard.

We see seats 25B, 56A and 56B all being on the DFL target list. Based on this list there isn’t much of a threat to the DFL Majority.

We have listed the election results for the 2016 Donald J Trump (R) campaign and the 2018 results for Tim Walz in each locality to provide a better understanding of the political landscape, in each of the districts.

Retiree Party Open Seat DFL Endorsed Candidate Republican Endorsed Candidate GLCP Candidate LMN Candidate Election Result 2018 Election Result 2016 Trump Factor Walz Effect Notes
Dan Fabin R 01A Connie Lindstrom John Burkel N/A N/A 71.14% 74.24% 64.60% 36.15% Rural District/Good Republican Seat
Ben Lien DFL 04A Heather Keeler Edwin Hahn N/A N/A 65.45% 62.20% 41.27% 56.08% Rural District-Regional Center/Good DFL Seat
Bud Norness R 08A Brittany Johnson Jordan Rasmusson N/A N/A 59.77% 65.19% 62.50% 37.92% Rural District/Good  Republican Seat
Jack Considine DFL 19B Luke Frederick Joe Steck N/A N/A 63.40% 59.55% 40.51% 63.13% Rural District-Regional Center/Good DFL Seat
Bob Vogel R 20A Erina Prom Alan Mackenthun, Marko Popovich, Brian Pfarr* N/A N/A 63.55% 60.81% 62.17% 39.18% Rural District/Safe Republican
Bob Gunther R 23A Open Christian Bjorn Olson,  Michael J Sukalski* N/A N/A 61.26% 68.14% 65.92% 38.61% Rural District/Safe Republican
Duane Sauke DFL 25B Liz Boldon Steve Wilson N/A N/A 60.10% 51.79% 39.79% 58.63% Rural District-Regional Center/Swing Seat
Mary Kunesh-Podein DFL 41B Sandra Feist Open N/A N/A 65.77% 63.24% 28.81% 68.06% Suburban District/Safe DFL
Lyndon Carlson DFL 45A Cedrick Frazier Jesse Pfliger N/A N/A 65.35% 56.80% 33.19% 62.02% Suburban District/Safe DFL
Hunter Cantrell DFL 56A Jess Hanson Open N/A N/A 52.74% 55.96% 43.74% 51.90% Suburban District/Swing Seat changed to DFL 2018
Alice Mann DFL 56B Kaela Berg Roz Peterson N/A N/A 52.64% 52.37% 43.48% 52.90% Suburban District/Swing Seat changed to DFL 2018
Jean Wagenius DFL 63B Emma Greenman Open N/A N/A 80.83% 76.19% 18.41% 78.45% Urban District/Safe DFL
Tim Mahoney DFL 67A John Thompson Open N/A N/A 96.41% 76.34% 21.38% 72.53% Urban District/Safe DFL
*Registered w/ Campaign Finance


When we looked on the Republican Party website looking for their endorsed candidates we saw some revisionist history. The MN GOP is still displaying the state house member list from 2018 and they were listed as senate members.