National & Minnesota Report
When Checks & Balances started in 1995, our focus was on the Swing Voter. We decided, in this Presidential Election, based on the constant barrage of news reports of the closeness outcome, and the prognostication, it was worth analyzing the potential factors which could determine the results. We have concluded Age and Gender might be the essential elements.
Hence, this is the reason we have provided a spreadsheet of the Presidential Popular Vote results in each of the seven swing states AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI from 2008-2020. Additionally, w have broken down the Census figures from 2022 by four different age brackets to show how different ages could also impact the results in their states. Now, because these are historical numbers they will not be completely precise, but they clearly will provide a perspective. Sure, some people have died, some new people have moved into the state and the different rules for voter registration may have changed, especially, in Georgia, in which the recent Republican appointees on their election board is pursuing changes as we write this.
When looking at the population of men and women from 2022, we can get a general perspective on the percentages of each. Additionally, because women vote more often than men, and when compared to the total population. The non-voting group is based on ineligibility due to age below 18, non-citizens, non-registered eligible voters and convicted felons.
In this election, it could truly become the Year of the Woman. Since AZ, GA, MI, NC and PA, all have higher percentages of women in their state, and women vote in higher instances, all other factors being equal, Harris may have an advantage based on gender. The differences then come down to three other factors, which political party they identify with or whether or not they consider themselves to be Independents.
As you can see below, some states are showing a party difference, but we think the gender of the respondents are a major factor.
CBS News Poll
|
State |
Democrat |
Republican |
Difference |
|
Michigan |
89% |
78% |
11% |
|
Pennsylvania |
82% |
75% |
7% |
|
Wisconsin |
87% |
76% |
11% |
The 93 Electoral College votes in these states will be penultimate to deciding the final outcome and the debate performance tonight will likely become the essential element in determining how the electorate feels toward each of these candidates. Because Trump is largely already defined, it will be up to Harris to delineate herself and buttress against anything Trump throws at her to prove her Presidential Chops.
In the race to 270, and each camp being in the low 200’s, any variance between these states will have a significant impact. The biggest prize clearly is Pennsylvania, but the various combinations play out like an algebraic formula. Here are the differentials.
|
State |
Electoral College Vote |
% Men |
% Women |
|
AZ |
11 |
51.44% |
51.47% |
|
GA |
16 |
49.70% |
52.17% |
|
MI |
15 |
49.62% |
50.38% |
|
NC |
16 |
48.88% |
51.12% |
|
NV |
6 |
50.35% |
49.65% |
|
PA |
19 |
49.34% |
50.66% |
|
WI |
10 |
50.21% |
49.79% |
Click here to see the state-by-state breakdown of the 2022 Electoral College Votes
On the question of Age, in 2008, the number of the youth vote was higher than the senior citizen vote for the first time in our nation. In this election, because of issues like abortion, marijuana legalization and student loan forgiveness the youth vote is a potential factor, but also the War in Gaza might impinge this block of support, especially if Donald J Trump is perceived better on the issue than is Vice-President Kamala Harris.
2008-2020 Electoral Results in the 7 Swing State Presidential Election
The additional factors of running mate selection, might play a role, if the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska plays a role and since our Governor Tim Walz (D) was born in the Cornhusker State, Omaha might be paying closer attention. For the record, this district does normally vote for the Democratic candidate.
Favorite sons can play a role, in 2008 US Sen John McCain (R-AZ) carried his state, but in 2012US Sen Mitt Romney (R-UT) was not able to carry his birth state of Michigan, in spite of the fact his father was a former governor.