Minnesota Report
In 2010, Wisconsin finished first in the nation and outpaced Minnesota in second by 1 percentage point in completion of the Census forms. The Badger state showed an 82% completion rate compared to our own of 81%. In 2000, the results were the same except Wisconsin completed 85% compared to our 81%.
This is a situation that any true Minnesotan should take an offense and we call on Governor Tim Walz (DFL-MN) to challenge Governor Tony Evers (D-WI) to a new border battle and capture the first position. This is significant for our state because whether or not Minnesota retains eight Congressional seats is only determined by actual Census results and not any form of speculative numbers. Since they regularly wager over sporting events, why not apply the same mentality to something even more significant.
Previously, we enacted the hashtag #MNvWI and it is time for it to resurface.
A review of the population estimates up to 2018, show Minnesota is on the bubble, but more recent data expresses different results. This new trend line favors a holding of the seat. This is why additional efforts are necessary. Because the determination will be only drawn from “Hard Numbers,” actually completed Census forms, each percentage point we increase over past years will significantly improve our prospects, in fact, one could argue if we had a 100% participation rate, we could even gain a seat. The variance we hear from the office of the State Demographer says, “We are either -27,000 or +26,000.” This means the differential is 53,000 people.
Since hard numbers are all that matter, the number of people who fill out their Census form is paramount. To that end, the Federal government under Donald J Trump (R) has once again failed in its obligation to the states of our nation by cutting back on the financial resources to collect this important data.
The state and municipal governments at the county and city levels need to step-up and challenge each other to assist in completing Census forms. School districts should challenge one another and the schools within a district should challenge each other because we all will benefit from a higher participation rate by retention of eight Congressional Districts and through more federal dollars coming into our state.
The projected population in the instance of eight Congressional Districts is 710,000 people compared to 810,000 for seven Congressional Districts.
There are four specific factors that will affect participation.
- Declining survey response rate.
- Mobility
- Language of the respondent i.e. Diversity
- Amount of money dedicated to process
The most significant factor we learned that has the greatest sizable impact on this is Diversity. Minnesota is projected to have greater than 20% of its population consist of people of color. This group is also significantly diversified among itself. The variety of languages, immigration status and fear of government is far higher in this community and hence will provide a significantly more complex set of approaches, while fewer dollars are available.
If you would like to track this issue we suggest you follow this site.
Minnesota Current Projections
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MN,US/PST045218
If you are interested in knowing how Congressional Districts populations are determined then go here, but a word of warning the formulas use square roots and personally we haven’t tackled those since high school.
Computing Apportionment
https://www.census.gov/population/apportionment/about/computing.html
Ultimately, the place to go is here https://www.electiondataservices.com/ because they are following every piece of information relevant.
The final projections for populations will be released by the Census Bureau mid-December and after that only the real hard numbers will matter.