National and Minnesota Report
At the onset, we will state we believe Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN05) will prevail because it is hard to unseat an incumbent in a Primary, but if it is to occur it’s most likely in the first reelection contest.
In 2016, Omar received 65,237 votes or 48.21% so the combination of her opponent’s support provides a solid foundation for a candidate if that person could consolidate this vote and enhance it. One of the ways is to motivate more of the registered voters to participate, in 2016, even with an open Congressional Seat, a US Senate contested election only 36.40% of the registered voters showed up. Another way of enhancement is to cultivate a crossover vote of the 15,367 Republicans who voted in their respective Primary the same year.
With the strong opposition Omar has received from Donald J Trump (R) the later option might be viable because the need for votes on the GOP side for Lacy Johnson don’t matter a bit because the ability for a Republican to win in this seat are 1 in a 100. The only impact a Republican voter can have is to vote again Omar in her Primary.
In the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd voter turnout should be higher and the schism between African-American voters and Somali voters is ever present and there is a even a divide within the Somali Community itself and Omar only represents a faction and its not clear if it is the largest or not. We contend Omar received the bulk of her support from the Somali Community and the voters in Southwest of Minneapolis. She didn’t fair as well in St Louis Park or the other suburban areas which account for approximately 40% of the district. She did secure the endorsement of Insight News.
The question is whether or not Antone Melton Meaux is able to appeal to this constituency. Omar’s anti-Israeli comments show help to some degree. She is a firebrand and a lightning rod and questions over her ethics and trustworthiness are on full display. But with the support from the DFL establishment from Governor Tim Walz and Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan, Attorney General Keith Ellison, US Senator Tina Smith and other local elected official, except US Senator Amy Klobuchar, because Omar backed US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) against her, she is now the establishment candidate.
The opportunity exists and it is through a suburban strategy it could occur, but again it’s not likely.