National and Minnesota Report
During the COVID-19 stay at home period, Minnesota held a venerable position of 1st place in self-directed Census completions, either by completing the forms online or by mail. With this pace we were likely to retain our eight Congressional District seats. Then the federal government set out to collect completed forms from non-respondents with Enumerators, who went door-to-door to obtain information from the wayward population and we slipped down to 11th even though 89.7% of the households have been identified. You can view each state in it’s entirety here and you can breakdown a particular state by county, and by city. https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.census.bureau#!/vizhome/2020CensusSelf-ResponseRankings/RankingsDashboard
Now, this is good news, but not great news because in 2000, when we were in the same position of losing a Congressional Seat, we prevailed over Arizona because our response rate was 2nd in the nation with 80% and it resulted in Minnesota having the smallest Congressional Districts in the nation. Then again in 2010 the same scenario, a potential seat loss and we prevailed over Missouri by having an 81% response rate and again retaining the smallest Congressional Districts in the nation.
Now, we expected our rise to continue through the enumeration process, but because the enumeration is being cut short by a month, set to end on September 30th, and because it is the hands of the federal government, under the scrutiny by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and once again the Donald J Trump (R) may have been less supportive to specific places in the nation, like Minnesota.
Right now, Idaho had the best overall competition rate at 97.2% followed by West Virginia at 94.8% and Washington at 93.2%. Wisconsin, which has held to 1st position in the last two Census’ collections at 81% in 2000 and 82% in 2010, is currently seventh with 91.9% may again prevail over us.
One factor that may work in our favor is as of now, the southern states are in the twelve lowest percentages and this might stem the tide of Congressional Districts flowing south.
The populations that are generally, counted in a higher percentage is homeowners compared to renters, and in the renter population, exists the highest concentration of minorities, new immigrants and undocumented persons. This undercount of these communities is reflective of why a lower level of federal funding comes into our state to meet the needs of these groups, because that is how federal funding works on a per capita basis. By not being counted it means there is less money available for any federal program directed based on population and density.
Additionally, when viewing our state participation by county, it is far more significant of a higher density population county to increase its participation rate than it is a low population county to do so, because of the raw number of households in said county. In Minnesota, Carver County is in 1st place with 84.1%, Anoka in 2nd with 83.3% and Washington in 3rd with 83.0%. The two most populous counties Hennepin is in 11th with 78.6% and Ramsey is in 14th with 77.7%.
One looming question is, if the Democrats retake the US Senate, will the Census result be accepted?