Minnesota Report
Now that the first major hurdle — campaign finance disclosures — is out of the way, a central theme in the 2025 St. Paul mayoral race is becoming clearer: this is shaping up to be an “Anyone But Carter” election.
Every challenger in the race — Yan Chen (DFL–St. Paul), Kaohly Her (DFL–St. Paul), Mike Hilborn (R–St. Paul), and Adam Dullinger (DSC–St. Paul) — has staked a position in direct opposition to incumbent Mayor Melvin Carter III (DFL–St. Paul). While united in their criticism, their reasons for opposing the mayor differ significantly:
- Yan Chen emphasizes public safety and has positioned herself as a vocal opponent of property tax increases, calling for a more transparent and disciplined approach to budgeting.
- Kaohly Her, while acknowledging Carter’s proposed budget cuts, advocates for reprioritizing city services, particularly increasing funding for first responders and public safety infrastructure.
- Mike Hilborn offers more general critiques, arguing that “St. Paul keeps doing things that sound good but are unsustainable in the long term,” though he has yet to articulate a detailed alternative plan.
- Adam Dullinger, thus far, has offered little in the way of a concrete platform, and his messaging remains underdeveloped.
Ranked Choice Dynamics: A Path to Victory for the Anti-Carter Bloc?
Because this election will use Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), a strategic path to victory may lie in the formation of a “Coalition of the Unwilling to Support Carter” — a group of candidates who, while distinct in ideology, are willing to support one another as second-choice options.
Looking ahead, our electoral crystal ball suggests the following likely RCV scenario:
- Dullinger, with minimal visibility and funding, is likely to be eliminated first, leaving his small base of voters to select an alternate. Should he endorse another candidate — even informally — it could provide a modest but meaningful bump in second-round tabulations.
- Hilborn, as the lone Republican in a deep-blue city, is expected to be eliminated early as well. The real question is how large his vote share will be — and where those votes migrate upon redistribution.
- At that point, the field likely narrows to the three viable candidates: Carter, Chen, and Her. The most pivotal moment in the RCV process will be who ends up in second place after the first reallocation. If the third-place candidate publicly endorses a rival before ballots are cast, it could have a significant strategic impact on voter behavior.
Turning Point: The September 17th Debate
All eyes will be on the League of Women Voters–sponsored debate on September 17th — just two days before absentee voting begins. This event may prove to be a defining moment in the campaign, particularly if the candidates are pressed to go beyond rehearsed talking points.
One question we believe should be asked is both timely and revealing:
“If you fail to receive enough votes and are removed from consideration, who would you suggest your supporters rank as their second-choice?”
This question cuts to the heart of the RCV strategy and could shape how voters navigate their rankings, especially among the anti-Carter voting bloc.
To submit this — or any other question — to the League of Women Voters for the upcoming debate, email: lwvstpaul@lwvmn.org.