Minnesota Report

The Minnesota State House Districts which both legislative caucuses are targeting and in play this election and not that hard to figure out. The factors used for determining where resources are applied stem from specific retirements if applicable and the results in the 2022 election. Now, because this is a Presidential election year there is an additional factor to consider and one which we have been acknowledging since 2016, which is the Trump Factor.

This is only an element in Greater Minnesota and suburban races. Since redistricting occurred in 2022, we will need to do a deeper dive in our analysis of these effected areas and breakdown the impact by trying to show a more granular understanding of these races by comparing the pre-2022 precincts.

In general, over the past 52 years and 14 Presidential elections, only one Republican Presidential candidate i.e. Richard Nixon in 1972 carried our state. This largely means the coattails in down ballot races benefits DFL candidates with a few notable exceptions. In 1973, the DFL held the House Majority, which also was the result of the first partisan legislative elections. In 1984, when Ronald Reagan (R) won reelection over favorite son Walter Mondale (D) Republicans took control of the House. Again, in 2000, Republicans took control after the election of George W Bush (R) over Vice-President Al Gore (D) and held the majority during Bush’s reelection in 2004.

The Trump Effect appeared in 2016, when in spite of Donald J Trump’s electoral loss here, the Republicans gained the House Majority.

All of this historical knowledge sets the stage for 2024. The DFL legislative majority was small with a six-vote majority, and with 18 announced retirements DFL (9)and Republican (9), it would seem like a challenge for both sides, which must maintain their existing seats and pick up three additional ones to hold or gain the majority.

Of the open seats we see four, which are what we consider being in play: 07B, 26A, 35B and 41B.

Seat 07B was the district of third-termer, Rep Dave Lislegard (DFL-07B, Aurora) who carried the seat with 51.10%. If it were to follow suit with the rest of the Iron Range it would make this region universally red.

District 26B had long-term member Rep Gene Pelowski (DFL) only winning by 55.04%, and as a Regional Center in Greater Minnesota, Winona is a required retention by the DFL. As a college town, this might be a place where the college vote is a significan factor.

In district 35B, the Coon Rapids seat looks like a toss-up, especially since the open seat, was filed by a retiring Senator in Jerry Newton (DFL) but he only carried the seat with 50.64% in 2022. This is a definite resource investment for the DFL this election.

In District 41B, the Hastings seat might be an opportunity for the DFL to pick-up if the wind is right. Because the first-termer Shane Hudella (R) only carried the seat with a 51.05% majority.

A Look at the 2024 House Races Which Statistical Look In Play

The Minnesota State House Districts which both legislative caucuses are targeting and in play this election and not that hard to figure out. The factors used for determining where resources are applied stem from specific retirements if applicable and the results in the 2022 election. Now, because this is a Presidential election year there is an additional factor to consider and one which we have been acknowledging since 2016, which is the Trump Factor.

This is only an element in Greater Minnesota and suburban races. Since redistricting occurred in 2022, we will need to do a deeper dive in our analysis of these effected areas and breakdown the impact by trying to show a more granular understanding of these races by comparing the pre-2022 precincts.

In general, over the past 52 years and 14 Presidential elections, only one Republican Presidential candidate i.e. Richard Nixon in 1972 carried our state. This largely means the coattails in down ballot races benefits DFL candidates with a few notable exceptions. In 1973, the DFL held the House Majority, which also was the result of the first partisan legislative elections. In 1984, when Ronald Reagan (R) won reelection over favorite son Walter Mondale (D) Republicans took control of the House. Again, in 2000, Republicans took control after the election of George W Bush (R) over Vice-President Al Gore (D) and held the majority during Bush’s reelection in 2004.

The Trump Effect appeared in 2016, when in spite of Donald J Trump’s electoral loss here, the Republicans gained the House Majority.

All of this historical knowledge sets the stage for 2024. The DFL legislative majority was small with a six-vote majority, and with 18 announced retirements DFL (9)and Republican (9), it would seem like a challenge for both sides, which must maintain their existing seats and pick up three additional ones to hold or gain the majority.

Of the open seats we see three, which are what we consider being in play 26A, 35B and 41B.

26B had long-term member Rep Gene Pelowski (DFL) only winning by 55.04%, and as a Regional Center in Greater Minnesota, Winona is a required retention by the DFL. As a college town, this might be a place where the college vote is a significant factor.

In district 35B, the Coon Rapids seat looks like a toss-up, especially since the open seat, was filed by a retiring Senator in Jerry Newton (DFL) but he only carried the seat with 50.64% in 2022. This is a definite resource investment for the DFL this election.

In District 41B, the Hastings seat might be an opportunity for the DFL to pick-up if the wind is right. Because the first-termer Shane Hudella (R) only carried the seat with a 51.05% majority.