National and Minnesota Report
First off, we will state unequivocally, no one election is like another. These are unique events, regionally and politically. Pundits are always trying to read the tea leaves from one election to gauge the electorate in a larger capacity. Ever odd-year, prior to the mid-term elections, people look to the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia to attempt to identify trend lines.
The 2022, mid-term election results may provide glimmers of hope for a variety of cases. The Special Election victory by Pat Ryan (NY-19) adds one seat to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA09) fragile Majority. Currently, the breakdown is 221 Democrats and 211 Republicans with three vacancies yet to be filled in traditional Republican districts. Because Ryan succeeded with a candidacy as an Iraq veteran who fought for the rights of Americans including a woman’s right to choose, he bolsters the argument made in the Kansas referendum, that this election is about combating the actions of the US Supreme Court and its current course, against the interests of Americans.
The Dodd Decision, which overturned the 50-year precedent, established in Roe v Wade, is proving to be a prime motivator and especially in close elections, as Ryan’s 51.1% over Marc Molinaro (R) 48.9% is a testament.
As we have heard from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), it’s the quality of the candidates and their connection to the voters which determines success. Women’s access to abortion may be a galvanizing factor for those who do not normally vote in mid-term elections. The greatest impact likely being with female Republicans.
When Democrats won the House Majority in the 2018 mid-terms, it was as a response to Donald J Trump (R) and it followed the normal script of the party of the President losing seats in Congress. This came after dramatic losses by President Barack Obama (D) during his tenure, which left a diminished base.
The legislative successes which have passed in the highest partisan Congress in recent memory, are being attributed to President Joe Biden (D), but the question remains with inflation and higher gas prices be the more determining factor or with the social issues of abortion and gun control. It is arguable, the legislative agenda of Biden is the most successful in nearly 57-years since President Lyndon B Johnson’s Great Society programs in 1965. Traditionally, bread and butter economic issues have the greater sway, but then we have never seen a more conservative court play such a significant role.
The main point is Americans have looked to the US Supreme Court as the body which has provided more opportunities and not taken them away. Americans always want more choices on everything not less. Now, as people go to the polls in November, we will see what is the greater driving force, Mar-a– Lago, the Court, or Inflation and the Economy.