If someone wants to see the divides in our state it is clearly evident from the State House Legislative District maps from 2016. When you view it, you will see a saturation of the DFL members in the metropolitan area and a spattering of DFL legislators in the Duluth and the Arrowhead region, along with the regional centers of Rochester, Morehead, Mankato, Winona, and Austin.

Statewide Map

Metro Map

After the 2016 election, Republicans held a 77-vote majority while the DFL held only 57 seats. Already, the DFL has regained a hotly disputed seat in another regional center, due to the suspension of the campaign by Rep Jim Knoblach (14A, St Cloud) because of sexual abuse allegations by his daughter. In order for the DFL to gain the majority, they would need to run the table in the metro and gain additional seats elsewhere. In light of the #MeToo movement and because of the influence from Donald J Trump (R) this election women candidates, especially on the DFL should gain 5-6 points. We anticipate any election result from 2016 that is within 5% points to be in play, especially where an incumbent is a man and the challenger a woman.

The high concentration of DFLers in districts within the 494/694 ring accounts for 40 out the 41 seats either completely or with a majority of the district within the boundary. Rep Dario Anselmo (R-49A, Edina) is the sole exception.

We believe the bordering districts that lie just outside the 494/694 ring are the districts that will determine who holds the House Majority in 2019. We believe the races in these buffer districts are the ones to watch.

We will list the competitors this election and show the results from 2016. If the seat is open then the 2016 results will have no bearing.

District Candidates 2016 results
33B Cindy Pugh Republican (Incumbent) Cindy Pugh 14836 60.34%
Kelly Morrison Democratic-Farmer-Labor Brad Brothen 9715 39.51%
34B Dennis Smith Republican (Incumbent) Dennis Smith 13773 55.83%
Kristin Bahner Democratic-Farmer-Labor Kristin Bahner 10841 43.95%
36A Bill Maresh Republican (Open)
Zack Stephenson Democratic-Farmer-Labor
37B Nolan West Republican (Incumbent)  Nolan West 11473 50.26%
Amir Joseph Malik Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Susan Witt 11305 49.52%
38B Patti Anderson Republican (Open)
Ami Wazlawik Democratic-Farmer-Labor
39B Kathy Lohmer Republican (Incumbent)  Kathy Lohmer 13793 59.02%
Shelly Christensen Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Alan Kantrud 9564 40.92%
42A Randy Jessup Republican (Incumbent)  Randy Jessup 11662 50.18%
Kelly Moller Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Barb Yarusso 11537 49.64%
48B Jenifer W. Loon Republican (Incumbent)  Jenifer W. Loon 13559 62.25%
Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Ben Sherlock 8183 37.57%
49A Dario Anselmo Republican (Incumbent)  Dario Anselmo 13075 51.04%
Heather Edelson Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Ron Erhardt 12499 48.79%
52A Regina Barr Republican (Incumbent)  Regina Barr 11001 50.17%
Ruth Richardson Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Mary T’Kach 10880 49.62%
53B Kelly Fenton Republican  Kelly Fenton 13740 56.35%
Steve Sandell Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Alberder Gillespie 10620 43.56%
54A Keith Franke Republican (Incumbent)  Keith Franke 10483 51.43%
Anne Claflin Democratic-Farmer-Labor  Jen Peterson 9877 48.46%