As we have begun to analyze the 2020 Presidential Race, while still awaiting all of the entrants, we see a dual track to the nomination forming. First, is the traditional liberal route, where the candidates have track records of accomplishment in their own rights passing legislation and proving their ability to get things done. Second, is the aspirational path, one where the candidates do not have a long track record of accomplishments but carry something extra. Extra is the representation of one constituency caucus in the Democratic fold or another. Although, it seems just being a woman isn’t enough, now one must be a twofer. An African-American Woman, a Progressive Woman, a Progressive African-American Man, or a Gay Local Elected Official.
We are not going to spend a great deal of time trying to create the Matrix of all of the potential candidacies, but needless to say, in large part there will be two clear and distinctive paths. One with more people on that side of the formula (The Progressive Path) than on the (Traditional Path) but both will ultimately result in a single candidate emerging.
As we assess the current field, US Senator fits the Traditional Path along with former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE), Gillibrand (D-NY) Sherrod Brown (D-OH), US Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) and Congressman John Delaney (D-MD06).
The Progressive Path includes US Senators Corey Booker (D-NJ) Kamala Harris (D-CA), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI02), former Transportation Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX) and South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg (D). We expect should he enter the list will include US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) unless as we expect he runs as a third-party candidate.