Note: This publishing is a continuation from a running total with numbers coming in regularly.
The DFL gubernatorial contest is wide open. So far, we have identified 55.93% of the 1398* known delegate pool (clarification point the overall delegate number is 1398 only 39 of the 40 delegates were selected in the Elected Officials Convocation, and 1398 is not people there are 1/2 votes included) as having announced support for one of the three candidates. The front-runner remains Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN01) who has secured 49.39% of the known delegates, followed by Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) with 29.85% and State Auditor Rebecca Otto (DFL-MN) carrying 25.26%.
We also have gleaned a large share of the PLEO’s (Party Leader Elected Officials) accounting for 73.23% of those available. In this group, Murphy holds the lead with 48.97%, followed by Walz at 37.24% and Otto trailing with 13.79%. With 44.07% of the entire DFL State Convention as unknown, our overall assessment shows Walz with 26.68%, Murphy with 16.02% and Otto with 9.94%.
There continues to be a large block of delegates that refuse to be identified as supporting any specific candidate. The faith communities identifying as Faith in Minnesota, carry between 10-12% of the vote and Our Revolution floats somewhere between 3-4%. If the placement remains as is, then Murphy has the better opportunity to receive support from Otto delegates rather than the other way around. We have found numerous instances where delegates will move to Murphy in this staging, but Murphy delegates will move to Walz if the positions were reversed.