Minnesota Report

As we listened to US Senator Amy Klobuchar’s (DFL-MN) announcement we heard her refer to our neighbors to the east Wisconsin and Michigan not getting enough attention during the 2016 election. As the ever-growing field of candidates expands it will be important for each candidate to show their strength in particular regions and in early state contests.

If Klobuchar were to mount a Big 10 strategy she will play in the early contests and have the opportunity to cultivate a base of delegate support. Now, the principal focus will need to be on Iowa, a Big 10 State. It should be Iowa all the time. Because of its close proximity, campaign workers and supporters will be able to take up unofficial residency in the Hawkeye State.

Because Iowa is a place that appeals to a more traditional Democrat, Klobuchar has the opportunity to fair well, in spite of the mere DNC 49 delegates up for grabs. She needs a strong showing in her lane over former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE) who will do well in the Eastern part of the state because of the Catholic communities located there. If she prevails, she will have momentum moving into New Hampshire, where a split vote can often launch another candidate.

The state’s home to Big 10 schools accounts for 968 delegate votes or 21.36% of the DNC Delegates. We expect there will be favorite sons and daughters along the way, such as US Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Ohio State University, should he enter the race and Corey Booker (D-NJ)/Rutgers University.

With our Presidential Primary occurring on March 3rd, Klobuchar has the ability to elbow everyone else out of the room (state). Of course, because Klobuchar isn’t a self-proclaimed “Progressive” she isn’t good enough for the left-leaning faction of the DFL Party.  We are not surprised to learn Our Revolution is not a Klobuchar fan. In spite of the pressure on the left, with a statewide vote, which Klobuchar always performs well, she should carry the state handily. We actually, believe her opposition from the left will help her with more traditional Democrats.

This sets up the next Big 10 contests in Michigan and Ohio on March 10th. In spite of Brown’s showing, if Klobuchar comes in a close 2nd, due to her strong union support, her momentum continues. Now, should she maintain an upward trajectory after Iowa, she then may have a path to the nomination, because there also will be losses of candidates along the way. Some will lack electoral support, which will mean their financial resources dry up, but also the interest of the country finding a candidate to match-up against Donald J Trump (R) will be quite significant throughout the process.

We have constructed a chart to follow the Presidential contest for 2020, granted not all of the states have made a final decision on their dates.

State Date Total Base Delegates District Level (+) 75% of Base   At-Large     (+) 25% of Base PLEO’s Total Pledged DNC Members Dem Members of Congress Dem Governors Distinguished Party Leaders Total Auto Delegates Total # Delegates % of DNCC
IA 2/3/2020 36 27 9 5 41 5 3 8 49 1.08% Big 10
NH 2/11/2020 21 16 5 3 24 5 4 9 33 0.73%
NV 2/22/2020 31 23 8 5 36 5 5 1 1 12 48 1.06%
SC 2/29/2020 47 35 12 7 54 7 2 9 63 1.39%
AL 3/3/2020 45 34 11 7 52 7 2 9 61 1.35%
CA 3/3/2020 362 272 90 54 416 33 45 1 79 495 10.92%
CO 3/3/2020 58 44 14 9 67 6 5 1 1 13 80 1.77%
MA 3/3/2020 79 59 20 12 91 9 11 3 23 114 2.52%
MN 3/3/2020 65 49 16 10 75 8 7 1 1 17 92 2.03% Big 10
NC 3/3/2020 96 72 24 14 110 8 3 1 12 122 2.69%
OK 3/3/2020 32 24 8 5 37 4 1 5 42 0.93%
TN 3/3/2020 56 42 14 8 64 6 2 1 9 73 1.61%
TX 3/3/2020 198 149 49 30 228 21 13 34 262 5.78%
VT 3/3/2020 14 11 3 2 16 4 2 1 7 23 0.51%
VA 3/3/2020 86 65 21 13 99 14 9 1 1 25 124 2.74%
LA 3/7/2020 43 32 11 7 50 5 1 1 7 57 1.26%
MI 3/10/2020 109 82 27 16 125 13 8 1 22 147 3.24% Big 10
MS 3/10/2020 31 23 8 5 36 4 1 5 41 0.90%
MO 3/10/2020 59 44 15 9 68 7 2 1 10 78 1.72%
OH 3/10/2020 118 89 29 18 136 11 5 1 17 153 3.38% Big 10
AZ 3/17/2020 58 44 14 9 67 5 6 1 12 79 1.74%
FL 3/17/2020 190 143 47 29 219 15 12 2 29 248 5.47%
IL 3/17/2020 135 101 34 20 155 13 14 1 1 29 184 4.06% Big 10
MD 3/28/2020 69 52 17 10 79 13 9 1 23 102 2.25%
WI 4/7/2020 67 50 17 10 77 8 4 1 13 90 1.99% Big 10
CT 4/28/2020 43 32 11 6 49 6 7 1 1 15 64 1.41%
DE 4/28/2020 15 11 4 2 17 6 3 1 1 11 28 0.62%
PA 4/28/2020 133 100 33 20 153 12 10 1 23 176 3.88% Big 10
RI 4/28/2020 18 14 4 3 21 4 4 1 9 30 0.66%
IN 5/5/2020 61 46 15 9 70 5 2 7 77 1.70% Big 10
WV 5/12/2020 21 16 5 3 24 5 1 6 30 0.66%
AR 5/19/2020 27 20 7 4 31 5 5 36 0.79%
KY 5/19/2020 40 30 10 6 46 5 1 6 52 1.15%
OR 5/19/2020 45 34 11 7 52 8 6 14 66 1.46%
MT 6/2/2020 14 11 3 2 16 4 1 1 6 22 0.49%
NJ 6/2/2020 93 70 23 14 107 7 13 1 21 128 2.82% Big 10
NM 6/2/2020 25 19 6 4 29 4 5 1 10 39 0.86%
SD 6/2/2020 12 9 3 2 14 4 1 5 19 0.42%
ND 6/7/2020 12 9 3 2 14 4 4 18 0.40%
PR 6/7/2020 44 33 11 7 51 7 1 8 59 1.30%
DC 6/16/2020 15 11 4 2 17 22 3 1 26 43 0.95%
Unassigned 0 1 1 1 0.02%
Date Not Set
AMS 3/1/2016 6 0 6 0 6 4 1 5 11 0.24%
DEMS Abroad 3/1/2016 12 0 12 1 13 4 4 17 0.38%
GA 3/1/2016 91 68 23 14 105 9 5 1 15 120 2.65%
KS 3/5/2016 29 22 7 4 33 4 1 1 6 39 0.86%
NE 3/5/2016 22 17 5 3 25 4 4 29 0.64%
ME 3/6/2016 21 16 5 3 24 4 2 1 1 8 32 0.71%
NMI 3/12/2016 6 0 6 0 6 4 1 5 11 0.24%
ID 3/22/2016 17 13 4 3 20 5 5 25 0.55%
UT 3/22/2016 25 19 6 4 29 5 1 6 35 0.77%
AK 3/26/2016 12 9 3 2 14 4 4 18 0.40%
WA 3/26/2016 77 58 19 12 89 9 9 18 107 2.36%
HI 3/27/2016 19 14 5 3 22 4 4 1 9 31 0.68%
WY 4/9/2016 11 8 3 2 13 4 4 17 0.38%
NY 4/19/2016 195 146 49 29 224 23 21 1 1 46 270 5.96%
Guam 5/7/2016 6 0 6 0 6 4 1 5 11 0.24%
VI 6/4/2016 6 0 6 0 6 4 1 5 11 0.24%
Total DNC Delegates 4532