When you look at the Governor Primary Election results by the eight Congressional Districts a few clear points emerge. On the DFL side, Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN01) carried five Congressional Districts, all in Greater MN, but he was competitive in all. He finished 2nd in each of the other three. Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) did carry the…
The first race on the ballot generally sets the highwater mark for votes cast on a ballot. Except for this year, where more DFLers voted for Governor than did for the first line on the ballot US Senator and more Republicans voted for the 2nd US Senate race down the ballot than they did for the first race. 10,803 more Republicans voted in the US Senate Special Election Primary than did in the US Senate Primary. The uptick in far from tradition since it is normal to see a fall-off of total votes as you progress down the ballot. On the DFL side, 17,217 fewer DFL voters cast their ballot in the US Senate Special Election Primary than did up the ballot in the US Senate Primary which is expected.
The total votes cast on the DFL side for Governor were greater than those for US Senate. As we look at the next line down the ballot, 3.465 fewer DFLers voted in the Attorney General race and 9.23% fewer Republicans did as well.
|Republican||Candidate||Totals||%||Total Votes||Change +/-||Change%|
|Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente||16974||5.88%|
|Rae Hart Anderson||25806||8.94%|
|Stephen A. Emery||7046||1.21%|
|David Robert Groves||4511||0.78%|
|Leonard J. Richards||3557||0.61%||580372|
|US Senate (Special Election)|
|Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey||7332||2.45%|
|Christopher Lovell Seymore Sr||5033||0.89%|
|Gregg A. Iverson||17753||3.15%|
|Richard W. Painter||77971||13.85%|
|Ali Chehem Ali||18873||3.35%||563155||-17217||-2.97%|
|Governor & Lt Governor|
|Republican||Candidate||Totals||Pct||Vote Totals||US Senate #||Change +/-||Change %|
|Mathew (Matt) Kruse and Theresa Loeffler||11289||3.53%|
|Jeff Johnson and Donna Bergstrom||168303||52.61%|
|Tim Pawlenty and Michelle Fischbach||140344||43.87%||319936||299458||+20478||+6.40%|
|Democratic-Farmer-Labor||Candidate||Totals||Pct||Vote Totals||US Senate #||Change +/-||Change %|
|Erin Murphy and Erin Maye-Quade||186620||32.04%|
|Lori Swanson and Rick Nolan||142952||24.54%|
|Tim Walz and Peggy Flanagan||242485||41.63%|
|Tim Holden and James P. Mellin II||6384||1.10%|
|Olé Savior and Chris Edman||4024||0.69%||582465||580372||+2093||+0.36%|
Attorney General Lori Swanson (DFL-MN) deployed no visible ground game during this Primary Election. Her efforts were direct mail and media ads. Congressman TIm Walz (D-MN01) and Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) applied the whole gamut, in addition to mailing, television ads, last night involve “Midnight Madness” which entails placing GOTV flyers on cars in urban areas.
In CD05, the former House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D-MN05) clearly sent out the most mail, and also did their own Midnight Madness. many have been surprised at the small about of mail from the DFL Endorsed Candidate Rep Ilhan Omar (DFL-60B, Minneapolis), but they may believe her star power and appeal to the millennials may be enough, but since Fall classes have not yet started at the University of MN, Augsburg University or MCTC there isn’t going to be a large student vote, unless they are in residence at the same location from last school year.
In CD08, we are interested to see if the mailing and Grassroots strategy of the Rep Jason Metsa (DFL-06B, Virginia) prevails over the media-savvy effort from former Rep Joe Radinovich (D-MN08). We understand a lot of the outside money supporting Radinovich materialized because a wealthy person from Colorado wrote a big check to Progress Tomorrow, Inc. As we have heard it was nearly impossible for a full half hour of broadcast television to run without a reference to Radinovich. We haven’t heard of any appearance by his new finance’ former Rep Carly Melin (DFL-Chisholm), but it would definitely be a benefit in a General Election because the two look like the figures atop a wedding cake.
The numbers from the most recent multi-candidate DFL Primaries are listed below. It is important to note, these numbers are from somewhat different districts because of 2012 redistricting, but they are valid ballpark figures. We have broken out the Seven Metro Counties (Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington Counties). In 1998, 494,069 voted with the percentages of 51.32% in the Seven County Metro area and 48.67% in Greater MN. In 2010, the numbers changed. In this Primary Contest, 3.91% voted in the Seven County Metro area and 56.09% in Greater MN. in the last eight years the demographics have changed even more and the weight of the Seven County Metro area is expected to again increase, but this time the difference will be stratified between the urban and suburban portions of the area.
Since turnout will be the primary factor in this election. We thought the being able to compare past elections might help access where specific pockets of voter strength is located. Granted, every election is different and different factors drive turnout.
We expect gender, geographic location, and Donald J Trump (R) will play a significant role in this election.
If you look at the state by Congressional District you see a major difference between DFL and Republican turnouts. We only can draw from the last major contested Primary in 2010. In both parties, the 8th Congressional District had the highest turnout, but on the DFL had over 43,000 more votes in that district.
|2010 DFL Primary|
|2010 Republican Primary|
1998 DFL Primary
|COUNTY||DAYTON AND JANSEN||FREEMAN AND JOHNSON||HUMPHREY III AND MOE||JOHNSON AND FOLEY||MONDALE AND WIENER||SAVIOR AND MOSENG||Total|
|LAC QUI PARLE||271||170||893||188||118||9||1649|
|LAKE OF THE WOODS||59||60||352||123||52||6||652|
|Total Votes Cast||494069|
|2010 DFL Primary||County||MARGARET ANDERSON KELLIHER AND JOHN GUNYOU||PETER IDUSOGIE AND LADY JAYNE FONTAINE||MATT ENTENZA AND ROBYNE ROBINSON||MARK DAYTON AND YVONNE PRETTNER SOLON||Total|
|LAC QUI PARLE||384||17||260||585||1246|
|LAKE OF THE WOODS||126||9||96||296||527|
|Total Votes Cast||441456|
Since we first published the Huffington Post has run a story. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/keith-ellison-denies-abuse-allegations_us_5b708128e4b0ae32af990d26
During the week we have been asked about a number of allegations of abuse by Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN05) but were not able to dig up a verifiable source. A person with the Twitter account @KarenMonahan01 is putting forward a number of allegations about “an alleged relationship with a narcissistic Politician” The bevy of her tweets are focused on Narcissism and the State Attorney General’s race. She has regularly put up articles and supportive items for Attorney General candidate Deb Hilstrom (DFL-40B, Brooklyn Center). We believe she is also a person who has had a relationship with Ellison. Ellison has tweeted about her and her son Austin Aslim Monahan in his Twitter account. There has been a constant whisper about a pending #MeToo problem for Ellison, but no one has come forward. The attacks from the left seem more forceful and defensive when they are protecting one of their own.
Karen Monahan’s claims are a bit opaque she doesn’t spell things out clearly, but she may be having a hard time fully embracing the ultimate outcome. She has to decide does she want to come forward now and affect the Primary outcome, or come forward later, when more attention is applied and affect the General Election outcome. The first choice which is less impactful because it doesn’t take the person out when they are on their upward trajectory maybe less satisfying, but the other choice, if the target wins the Primary, will result in a Republican holding the office for the first time in over 30 years.
Yesterday, Austin put forward a bold claim on Facebook alleging he has video evidence of Ellison forcibly pulling his mother off of a bed by her feet. There is also supposedly communication from Ellison threatening Karen Monahan if she comes forward. https://www.facebook.com/Aslimsed/posts/2319161644777680
At this time no statement has been made by Ellison, but if true then it could have a significant impact on the DFL Primary and Attorney General’s race in general.
At Farmfest former Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) virtually ignored his Primary opponent Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R-MN) and made most of his critical comments toward Congressman Tim Walz (D-MN01). Similarly, Attorney General Lori Swanson (DFL-MN) began running television ads criticizing Walz for missing votes in Washington DC while running for Governor. With this clear attention shift, it appears both the Pawlenty and Swanson campaigns see Walz as the frontrunner. When asked her opinion on these issues DFL endorsed candidate Rep Erin Murphy (DFL-64A, St Paul) says this is what Minnesotans dislike about politics.
As Pawlenty takes tough hits from the Alliance for a Better Minnesota he is taking body blows which will have their full impact in the General Election. Likewise, Swanson taking her own shots from The Intercept, which declares her to be the DFL frontrunner along with the #MeToo problem in the office of her running mate Congressman Rick Nolan (D-MN08).
This morning on At Issue the three DFL Candidates answered questions posed by Tom Hauser. At the end of the program, Hauser asked questions about the perceived negatives. With Murphy, he asked about the metrocentric campaign and its ability to appeal statewide. She spoke about knitting the state back together and opening eight regional offices. With Walz, he asked about the Swanson commercial to which he expressed disappointment of Swanson going down the low road and spoke of running an aggressive statewide campaign. To Swanson Hauser asked about the allegations of staff working on behalf of her campaign of which she explained they did so on their own time, by their own choice.
As we move into the last two days of this Primary Election, it Is hard to distinguish which issues will have an impact on the electorate. Last minute claims are expected, but the question is which candidate can shake off the effects of these late-stage attacks and survive.
If the opposing camp on the other side of the aisle is already sharpening their knives and the other candidate you are seen to be jockeying for the lead with is attacking you, then likely you are in the lead.
Rep Ilhan Omar (DFL-60B, Minneapolis) is a constant target for Republican attacks, maybe this is why she spent money from her campaign account for “crisis management.” Recently, there were the charges of inappropriate use of campaign contributions by Re Steve Drazkowski (R-28B, Mazeppa).
During her original campaign for her House seat, allegations existed that Omar had children with Ahmed Hirsi but married her brother Ahmed Nur Said Elmi in order for him to get into the country, but then she went back to Hirsi.
PJ News https://pjmedia.com/homeland-security/state-rep-ilhan-omar-d-mn-swore-to-apparent-falsehoods-in-court-while-divorcing-her-alleged-brother/
Now there are numerous postings, mostly from Rightwing sources questioning Omar validity as a candidate.
We just ask again why are they so incensed?
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We found it interesting to see former House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D-MN05) mounting a That Was Then This Is Now effort. In her literature, she states how she led the State House in taking on Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) and will do the same in Washington DC with Donald J Trump (R) which is exactly what people want from their member of Congress.
In the last press release, the Anderson Kelliher campaign announced solid fundraising numbers and we understand they are prepared to advertise on television for the last two weeks of the campaign.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher Raises $215,000 in July
Candidate Has Raised Nearly $350,000 for Campaign and has $250,000 Cash on Hand
(Minneapolis, MN – July 26, 2018) – For the pre-primary filing deadline, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, candidate for Minnesota’s open 5th Congressional District seat, raised more than $215,000, without taking a single dime of corporate PAC money.
Anderson Kelliher has now raised nearly $350,000 since jumping in the race for the unexpected open seat on June 4. She has more than $250,000 cash on hand to spend before the primary election on August 14.
“Our support continues to grow across the district. Minnesotans in the 5th Congressional District want to send a fighter to Washington with the leadership and experience to take on the Trump Administration,” said Anderson Kelliher. “As a community organizer who learned from the late-Senator Paul Wellstone, I know this primary will be won one voter at a time. We will have the resources we need to run a strong voter outreach campaign and grassroots GOTV operation over the next 20 days.”
This strong fundraising report comes on the heels of additional endorsements including Richfield’s Mayor Pat Elliott, Former Secretary of State Joan Growe, Ambassador Sam Kaplan, and Hennepin County Commissioners Mike Opat and Linda Higgins. Anderson Kelliher has gained the broadest support of currently-serving 5th Congressional District mayors, legislators, and county commissioners.
The question is who will be the most effective in doing so, we think experience and past activity are a good indicator of future performance.
Here are a few pieces of literature showing up at homes in the 5th Congressional District.
In an attempt to show some reality in the hype associated with the race for the MN05 Congressional District seat the former House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D-MN05) campaign released their fundraising totals, which, we know are ahead of the goal set for the first three weeks of $150,000.
DFL Candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher Builds Momentum
Announces Strong Fundraising, Key Political Support, and Experienced Campaign Team
(MINNEAPOLIS, MN—July 10, 2018) Margaret Anderson Kelliher, DFL candidate for Congress in MN-05, announced today that she has raised $200,000 in her first month as a candidate. The fundraising success demonstrates that voters are excited by the opportunity to send Margaret to Washington to fight against the Trump Administration and serve the residents of the Fifth Congressional District.
“I am honored by the strong support my campaign has received from across the district, said Kelliher. “As I meet with voters, they want someone to stand up to Donald Trump to protect seniors and the most vulnerable, fight against the Administration’s cruel immigration policy, and ensure Medicare-for-All. In Congress, I will do just that.”
The campaign has gained broad support from elected officials throughout the district, including the recent endorsements by Fifth Congressional District mayors including James Hovland of Edina, Shep Harris of Golden Valley, Molly Cummings of Hopkins, and Kathi Hemken of New Hope. See Margaret’s many other endorsements here.
“Margaret is a proven, experienced leader who has fought to improve the lives of Minnesotans during her time in the legislature and most recently in the private sector. Her awareness of and tenacity on key issues will have the greatest impact for working families all across the district. Residents of Golden Valley believe in Margaret, and I do too,” said Mayor Shep Harris.
The campaign has also announced veteran consultants Alex Zwerdling and Donna Victoria have joined the team. They have extensive experience winning tough races across the 5th Congressional District and Minnesota.
We are interested in the figures for Rep Ilhan Omar (DFL-60B, Minneapolis) and Sen Patricia Torres Ray (DFL-63, Minneapolis) and the other candidates in the field.
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