St Paul Mayor’s Race 2017: 82 Days and Counting

We posted a piece yesterday, which preempted other news sources. We discussed the occurrence of a robbery at the home of former City Council Member (Ward 1) Melvin Carter III (DFL). Due to expediency, we were not as detailed as other reports, but we were first to identify two of the items stolen as handguns, equipped with trigger locks, and secured in a lockbox.

This piece of information was not readily available in the initial police report released to the public, but was communicated to higher-ups in the department. Our source(s) were a bit quick on the trigger themselves and sought to portray a slightly different picture. Now as the air clears, we understand better the timing of the crime, the items taken and feeling created when one is violated in such a manner.

Since this is an active investigation, law enforcement is trying to prevent information from leaking out about specifics so that they can catch the criminal. We understand things are rapidly moving forward, and the authorities are confident about the ultimate result.

We apologize if we created any negative impression of Carter as being irresponsible or placing his family in any harmful situation. Since he grew up in the home of a police officer Carter, we have learned clearly, he has developed respect for firearms.

Filings Closure

The field of candidates in St Paul is now clearly defined at ten.  As we often do in large filing for office we will define these people into tiers. The first tier contains those we consider as legitimate viable candidates. In Tier One are: Carter, former City Council Member (Ward 3) Pat Harris (DFL), current City Council Member (Ward 1) Dai Thao (DFL), and Elizabeth Dickinson (Gr). In Tier Two are: Tom Goldstein (DFL), Tim Holden (I). In Tier Three are: Sharon Anderson, Trahern Crews, Chris Holbrook (L), Barnabas Joshua Yshua.

 In our estimation, only a Tier One candidate has the possibility of winning. The question will be who finishes in first or second place and can the candidates in third or fourth receive enough votes to leap past the top two?

This is where the voters for the Tier Two and Tier Three candidate may, and we stress may have an impact. The Tier Three candidates will likely receive less than 10% of the vote. In 2013, Anderson, a gadfly candidate received 917 votes or 3.02% and she will probably have the highest amount of support of the four in this tier.

When looking at the Tier Two candidates we will point out both have run citywide before and in 2009 Goldstein lost his reelection bid for the school board and received 4517 votes or 16.56%. In 2013, in his bid for mayor Holden received 4978 votes or 16.41%. These two candidates may have the greatest effect on the race because if they can carry comparable numbers, depending on turnout, they can have a block of double digits in support.

The major factors in this race are turnout, perceived strength of voter support, endorsements, and financial strength. Given the ludicrous system of Ranked Voting, the depth of the field and the different factionalization of specific constituency groups split support among the various unions and the continuing low-grade fever people are experiencing from Washington, DC, we are not expecting any candidate to carry a majority.

This will once again prove Ranked Choice Voting does not live up to its claims.

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