There are sixteen candidates for mayor this go-round versus thirty-five in 2013. We expect the decline is due to the $500 filing fee, which can be offset by securing 500 valid signatures, which by our measure is too low of a bar for entry.
As we did in the St Paul race we will place this field into tiers.
The Tier One candidates are State Rep. Raymond Dehn (DFL-59A, Minneapolis), current City Council Member (Ward 3) Jacob Frey (DFL), Businessman Tom Hoch (DFL), Incumbent Mayor Betsy Hodges (DFL), and from NAACP Executive Director Nekima Levy-Pounds (DFL).
The Tier Two candidates are Al Flowers (DFL), and Aswar Rahman (DFL) who both made thoughtful and impassioned speeches at the Minneapolis DFL City Convention.
The Tier Three candidates are: Troy Benjegerdes (who filed as Farmer Labor), Charlie Gers (L), LA Nik (I), Gregg A. Iverson who filed as DFL, but has always been known as a Republican, Ron Lischeid (People over Politics), David Rosenfeld (Socialist Workers Party), Ian Simpson (The Ideal Party), Captain Jack Sparrow (Basic Income Guarantee), and David John Wilson (Rainbows Butterflies Unicorns).
As is the case Tier Three will likely contain around 10% or less of the overall vote. In 2013, Sparrow received 352 votes or .44%, Benjegerdes received a high water mark of 167 votes or .21%, and Iverson 156 votes or .19%.
As was the case in 2013, we are highly doubtful there will be a winner by majority come November. If any candidate tops forty-three percent and someone will bet on another candidate going past them as the votes are re-ranked, take the bet. Forty-three is our “magic number” for a first ballot path to eventual victory.
With Hodges selection of Medaria Arradondo as Police Chief, she may have made a significant mayoral decision, which will assuage the hostility on the Northside to some degree. It also proves the advantage of incumbency.