Here is a sample of the discussions that we are having and hearing as we head to the start of the spring to the November finish line. What will matter, what will get people’s attention and other thoughts – random or otherwise.
Filing – will there be any surprises? Unlikely at the mayoral level. Probably none that will make a difference at the council or park board level.
Turnout – the $64,000 question. We think it will be up, but where and with who are the key questions. More on this in our weekly updates.
Events – one of the candidates is the incumbent. Events always matter. They are a double-edged sword. They can sink the incumbent or they can make the incumbent look mayoral and separate said incumbent from the challenges. Events can play into the hands of challengers wheelhouses or events can create challenges for candidates. Again, more in the weekly updates.
Downtown – always a part of the story (in both cities) and now that downtown has become such a residential neighborhood, will that change the traditional “rest of the city versus the greedy downtown” narrative that often drives discussion? If so, who is favored? Will downtown residents vote in higher percentages than the rest of the city? If so, shut and for which candidate?
How liberal/progressive will the actual electorate be? How old? How diverse?
Lots to follow. We will try to zero in on these and other breaking events in the upcoming updates. We may follow conventional wisdom, or we may surprise you.
The information on campaign finance is in and we will scrutinize those numbers and see if any clear indications present themselves.