Capitol City Mayor’s Race 2017

The filing period for Mayor has commenced and will continue until August 15th. To date the field consists of: former City Council Member (Ward One) Melvin Carter III (DFL), Elizabeth Dickinson (GR), former School Board Member Tom Goldstein (DFL), businessman Tim Holden (Ind), former City Council Member (Ward Three) Pat Harris (DFL) and current City Council Member (Ward One) Dai Thao (DFL). Upon the filings close, the race to the finish line will begin in earnest.

Unlike the Minneapolis race, a surprise is still be possible in Saint Paul’s Mayor’s race.  The biggest change in the mix would be another woman, especially a DFLer?  There is also the possibility of another strong school board candidate that might bring out a different set of voters to the polls?  Some of Saint Paul’s traditional “free spirited” candidates have yet to be heard from. We think that it is likely that the line to Ramsey County Elections Director Joe Mansky’s domain will be longer, rather than shorter before the doors are locked for good and the ballot finalized.

The issue over whether or not enough signatures were achieved in a bid to move municipal elections to even years is in district court tomorrow, and even though this is a stupid idea, we hope the court will be wise enough to prevent the issue from appearing on the ballot.

As in Minneapolis, we think that turnout will be crucial in the Saint Paul races.  At this moment, we think it may be lower than many are predicting. Again, what will that mean? How will ranked choice voting play out?  Will the race be close enough for someone to leapfrog their way past the early leader(s)?   If so, who could this said someone be? what are the odds, long or short for such occurrence to happen? Additionally, how will identify politics play out in this race?  If at all?

Learning the flow rate of the monies raised, spent and which remain on hand and will provide a comprehensive breakdown later because reports are not due until September 12th, eight weeks before the General Election. This will answer a series of questions. How much will it make a difference?  Will these amounts be decisive, or is the likely electorate so composed of regular voters that the Saintly City’s version of the Old Gray Lady, the Pioneer Press, which has shown an interest in the mayor’s race, be all that the people need turn to, except of course C&B?

Is demography destiny?  Will Wards Three and Four be the electoral giants that determine the winner? Or, will a different dynamic emerge?

After an election cycle virtually void of lawn signs, will the multiple candidates raise a bumper crop of self-serving two by two or two by four placards?  Will there be a self-righteous backlash?

Stay tuned for continued the updates, Follow us on Twitter checksnbalances.

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