The final bevy of DFL County Unit /Senate District conventions occurred last weekend. As far as we can tell the numbers seem to be staying fairly consistent. The final delegates were selected from Martin County (4), St. Louis County-06 (16), Faribault County (3) Marshall (3) and Winona County (11). As expected there were areas which sub-caucused for delegate selection and those which did not. 

At St. Louis-06 Convention, incumbent Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook) announced his withdrawal from the field of candidates for governor, which may have affected the results in that district, but due to the low numbers will have little impact on the endorsement overall. At that convention Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia) received (4), Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) (3), Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) (2), Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) (1) and Uncommitted (3).  In Winona, Uncommitted had (6) with three of the sub-caucuses ReNEW, Rybak (3) and Kelliher (2).

When we look at named sub-caucuses Uncommitted continues to lead with 608.5 delegates or 50.71% Kelliher in named sub-caucuses with 187.5 or 15.63%, Rybak remains in second with 173 delegates or 14.42%, followed by Marty with 67.5 delegates or 5.63%, Thissen with 46.5 delegates or 3.88%, Rukavina having 51 delegates or 4.25% the last remaining candidate with any notable numbers is Entenza with 28.5 or 2.38%.

Since the named sub-caucuses make up less than 50% of the convention delegates the real work comes in the identification of the candidate preferences from the delegates. This effort is what all of the campaigns focused on the DFL Endorsement are involved in every night. Now we concede there are some instances where a delegate coming from a candidate named sub-caucuses may actually support another candidate other than the one named, but this occurs infrequently.

As we try to ascertain numbers out of the block of uncommitted delegates, we will identify them as we learn their preferences. As you can see the ReNEW Minnesota block has 40 delegates in sub-caucuses with ReNEW in the name. Additionally, there are ReNEW delegates in named sub-caucuses as well. In this case Rybak leads with better than a 2-1 margin and Thissen comes in a distant second with Anderson-Kelliher carrying only a handful of these votes.  It is our understanding ReNEW is claiming 158 delegates overall from named sub-caucuses, uncommitted sub-caucuses and automatic delegates.

Earlier we discuss the lack of significant impact the withdrawal of Bakk from the race has regarding the delegate counts. This is especially relevant since his departure begs the question if the delegates elected to support him will actually show up in Duluth on April 23^rd. We know from our friends in the Carpenters Union there are 43 carpenters elected as delegates.  It is natural for people to believe these delegates will naturally go to Rukavina, but they need to be present to do so. Since many are in the northern portion of the state it is possible, but if the delegate or the alternate does not claim their credentials the process advantages other candidates.

If no one claims the credentials then the political sub-division selects the delegate by lot. This means for example in the case of a 20 member delegation if there are 9 people who are uncommitted delegates, 4 from an Anderson-Kelliher sub-caucus, 3 from a Rybak sub-caucus, 2 from a Marty sub-caucus and 1 from a Rukavina sub-caucus then into a hat will go the 9 uncommitted sub-caucuses (each clearly identified), the 4 Anderson-Kelliher pieces of paper, 3 Rybak and so on then there will be a drawing for the delegate seat which will go to the alternate of that respective caucus. The winner then gets the position for the entire convention.

So in effect since Bakk did not endorse one of his opponents the linkage between his delegates and any other candidate is not well established. In fact, because of the way it was done Bakk actually disadvantaged Rukavina rather than helped him.

As we pour over the numbers there is one factor we thought would happen did not occur and that is Marty’s numbers would exceed the results from the Gubernatorial Straw Poll. It appears this did not happen although Marty’s role in this process will be one worth watching, specifically in regards to the various thresholds for the drop rule during balloting. Marty’s hard count will remain largely unchanged ballot-by-ballot. If he remains as is and a large block of automatic delegates do not fly to his aid then he will be out after the 2^nd ballot.

The proposed rules call for 5% after the first ballot, 10% after the 2^nd ballot, 15% after the third ballot, 20% after the fourth ballot, 25% after the fifth ballot and then the lowest candidate is drop until two remain. These rules will remain in place unless changes are recommended by the Rule Committee, in which the chair is selected by DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez and most of the eighteen delegates are selected at their respective Congressional District conventions.

The delegates to the Rules Committee in the 7^th Congressional District were chosen by the Central Committee and they are: Allison Myhre (Communications Director for Anderson-Kelliher) and Tim Velde (Thissen Supporter). Additionally, because the 8^th Congressional District Convention takes place after the DFL State Convention those delegates will need to be selected in another manner. In this instance alternates do not matter because they will not get to vote.

To see a spreadsheet of the DFL delegates click here:

Now that the BPOU conventions are a wrap, Republican candidates for governor, Tom EmmerMarty Seifert, are focused on the 2,000 delegates who will vote on the endorsement for governor at the State Convention in Minneapolis on April 29. Now with just over five weeks to go we wonder where the race stands? and

 Most GOP insiders claim this race is a dead heat. Privately, Emmer supporters are stating counts showing their candidate up by 200. Additionally, Seifert’s camp believes they are in the lead but are not less willing to share much information on delegate totals.  Unlike the Pawlenty/Sullivan battle in '02 when the vast majority of delegates were firmly in either camp at this point in the race, there appears to be a large amount of soft support for both candidates.

Seifert’s base of support is in greater Minnesota, where he appears to have a 2 to 1 advantage in Congressional Districts 1, 7, and 8.  These greater Minnesota delegates like Seifert because he grew up like many of them did, on a small family farm.  Emmer’s base of support is in the 6th Congressional District, the most Republican district in the state.  While the Emmer camp claimed big victories in a number of key suburban areas, it appears that many of these delegates are still up for grabs. The million dollar question is what will move the undecided or soft supporters firmly into either camp?

 As we have reported before, Emmer reflects the mood of many GOP delegates -- angry at the status quo, the rage against the machine candidate.  His stump speech is long on angry rhetoric but short on specifics. May be a better way to se Emmer is as the candidate delegates identify with emotionally. He is the candidate people support if they are voting with the hearts.

 Seifert, on the other hand, does not give the fiery speech, but rather the philosophical one. His speeches are focus on specific policy proposals and what some would like to have seen as substance. He recognizes this is his strong suit and is trying to play to his strength. Last week, Seifert released a budget plan to make up for the $1 billion shortfall.  Reviews among Republican activists are somewhat favorable and for the party often criticized as being short on fresh ideas and real policy solutions this delivers a framework. He is the candidate people support if they are trying to be pragmatic and vote with their head.

 Emmer’s camp has continued to attempt to paint Seifert as a career politician.  Seifert’s camp has pushed back, noting that Emmer has been in elected office (10 plus years on the city council before being elected to the House in '04) his political career is longer than Seifert’s.  Neither candidate can really lay claim to be a true 'outsider' in this race. 

 While releasing his budget proposal, Seifert chose a few key issues to highlight the differences between himself and his opponent.  With the health care reform discussion dominating national politics, Seifert has grabbed this issue and stressed the difference with Emmer on tort reform.  Since Emmer is a trial lawyer, he has never supported tort reform, which is the argument from the Seifert camp.  Emmer has argued that he didn't support bills in the legislature because they were "piecemeal," but also has yet to provide a comprehensive solution to the tort reform issue.

Seifert has also hammered Emmer on a campaign finance reform bill that Emmer introduced in the 2005-2006 session.  The Seifert campaign has pushed around a city pages article (http://www.citypages.com/2005-07-13/news/dough-boys) which profiles Emmer’sEmmer’s bill was based upon.  Emmer’s response to the attack is to claim Seifert is just "playing politics."  Some want to stress this as a demonstration of Emmer’s weakness and stubbornness by refusing to admit to any mistakes while in the legislature. involvement with the bill.  This does not appear to be a winning issue with the Republican Party faithful who abhor any mention of McCain Feingold -- which is what

 At the end of the day, the race will likely come down to the 1/4 to 1/3 of undecided or soft supporters of either candidate.  These delegates will be won over by one-on-one contact from the candidates themselves. 

In this area, Seifert may have an advantage mainly because of financial resources.  Emmer’s campaign appears to some to be running on fumes. There are few paid full-time staffers, most fulfilling these roles are volunteers, but the question is whether they are passionate about their candidate or is it because of a lack of money.  The problem is, with less staff accountability, its tougher maintain discipline and get organized in the final five weeks of the campaign with a majority of volunteers. 

As an example, activist Sue Jeffers and former State Party Deputy Chairman Dorothy FlemingEmmer’s key supporters.  These women both have barnacles in Republican circles—Jeffers challenged Pawlenty in a primary after she lost the endorsement and has dabbled with the Libertarian Party while Fleming served as Deputy Chairman for a single term with little to distinguish her term of office. are two of

 It appears that this race is too close to call at this point.  The campaign who wins the messaging and organizational war will likely prevail on April 30 in Minneapolis. The question is will the delegates vote their hearts or their heads and Democrats are hoping voters in November see either candidate as the Tin Man or as the Cowardly Lion.

Key Strategies, LLC; the parent company of Checks & Balances http://checksandbalances.com received approval for their first BlackBerry application Poledex. This is a legislative/lobbyist directory for Minnesota. Today, Key Strategies, LLC President Shawn Towle said, “The process is a little daunting stepping out into a new frontier, but we go so boldly, where no one else has gone before.”

This app will be the first in a series of similar apps for other states. The Poledex has the ease of use of the device and the information found in the Official Directory of the Minnesota Legislature (Red Book), including legislators and staff along with information found at the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board. Towle said, “We have more lobbyists listed than in the Minnesota Government Relations Council and at the close of the filing deadlines we will include the various candidates for office this election.”

To find the Poledex at the Blackberry Store click here: http://appworld.blackberry.com/webstore/search/Poledex

In politics, it is always better to have beaten someone during the process because it helps to sharpen one’s skills. The endorsement fight in the 6^th Congressional District to challenge incumbent Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is a perfect example. Current, State Senate Assistant Majority Leader Tarryl Clark (DFL-15, St. Cloud) is our pick over Maureen Reed (D) in the quest to unseat Bachmann mainly because Reed history with Democratic politics is spotty at best. She was the Lt. Governor candidate with Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson in 2006.

It is clear from the 21,000 vote margin between Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) and Attorney General Mike Hatch (DFL) if the race had been between two candidates the results would have far less clouded. Hutchinson/Reed garnered 141,735 which is a far greater amount and could have created a far different outcome. The Clark Campaign is hopeful people remember.

The 6^th Congressional District convention starts at 11:00am on March 27 Teamsters Local 120 Hall in Blaine.

In an election year where the Tea Party movement is in full-swing Republicans are hoping their political fortunes will improve in November. Last week, at St. Cloud State University, where he heads the Economics Department, ultra-Conservative Patriot Radio Station Host and Commentator King Bananian (R) announced his intention to challenge incumbent Rep. Larry Haws (DFL-15B, St. Cloud) for his house seat. Bananian stood with House Minority Leader Kurt Zellers (R-32B, Maple Grove) and potential seatmate Rep. Steve Gottwalt (R-15A, St. Cloud) as he criticized Haws’ voting record. He received the Republican Party endorsement on the Saturday and filed for the seat yesterday.

During his announcement, Bananian employed Ronald Reagan’s 11^th Commandment—Thou shall not speak ill of a fellow Republican—when he expressed some remorse at the line item veto by Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) of the St. Cloud Civic Center Expansion though no criticism of the action, but being a “good economist” also questioned the validity of a $34 million price tag.

In his filing, we noticed one interesting item and that is the name of his Campaign Chair Sue Ek (R). Ms. Ek has the made the annals of Minnesota political history as being the first candidate to be stricken from the ballot in a Special Election by the State Supreme Court. Checks & Balances readers should remember we were the first to break the story of her residency problems associated in her bid in 2005 to challenge Haws. The court removed her from the ballot after reviewing the evidence of her St. Paul residence up to the date of filing, which requires minimum 60 days residency in the district in question. One would think, after such an embarrassment and black eye for the Republican Party, Ek is last person a candidate would want in such a prominent role, but in politics, hubris is a political Achilles heel and often overlooked.

In case you have forgotten, another conservative radio talk show hosts who also ran for office was from St. Cloud and that is Dan “Ox” Ochsner (R). He challenged Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-15, St. Cloud) in 2006.

We learned a long time ago in politics the only way to get anything is to first ask for it. So we called the various campaigns to try and find out their respective numbers in the fight for the DFL Party endorsement. We received a varied response. Some would not release any numbers to us, even after we gave them what we had, which often times means they don’t like what they see or have something to hide. Generally, we have had good dialogue with all of the principals in each camp and expect those who were not as forthcoming will correct this mistake shortly. Hence we are not going to name names of those who are still hiding things from us.

Now we know there are people out there giving running totals of what they are gleaning from the various conventions and often times those numbers are wrong. Some campaign was spinning this or that blog to try and get an edge coming into the next week’s conventions. Now to be clear we have over twenty years of experience in DFL politics in fact in case you didn’t know Checks & Balances Publisher Shawn Towle served for a number of years on the DFL Constitution & Bylaws Committee.

During his stint there he was instrumental in bringing about a number of delegates to this very convention. Towle successfully pushed for automatic delegate status for all Constitutional Officers and legislators. His proposal passed after an amendment from Sarah Leverence for inclusion of tribal leaders. The DFL Party has since, stupidly, expanded the category to include a plethora of party officers. The total of automatic delegates is 139.This means the automatic delegate block represents over 10% of the DFL State Convention.      

With this being the last big weekend for delegate selection, there are a large block of 193 or 16.08% of the 1200 DFL State Delegates to be picked. Last weekend, there were 119 or 9.92% elected bringing the grand total to 970 or 80.83%.

We have been watching various campaigns spin their numbers like tops without actually providing any real clarity. We have attempted to identify the known factors i.e. named sub-caucuses to create a baseline. From this perspective the picture is still a bit murky. As far as we can ascertain more than 50% of the convention delegates up to this point will come from uncommitted sub-caucuses.

Now to be clear, this does not mean the delegates are all unpledged to a specific candidate, but this is where experience and knowledge of who the delegates are becomes increasingly important. Anyone can assemble a list of numbers, but there are only a handful of people who can look at a list and know who goes where. People like Ed Gross and Jim Niland come to mind when it comes to counting noses at a DFL Convention. The two often work together, but since Niland works for AFSCME Council 5, and they endorsed former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D), his efforts will be only seen in the 6^th Congressional District on behalf of Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-15, St. Cloud) against Maureen Reed (D).

We contacted the DFL Party and found out they are still waiting results from many conventions and need to point out our list is incomplete, but we will continue to update as information comes available. Now, even without being complete the DFL Party information does provide some interesting items for scrutiny. In named sub-caucuses Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) leads Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) 59 or 9.82% to 53 or 8.92% or by a mere percentage point. He is followed by Rep. Paul Thissen (DFL-63A, Minneapolis) with 30 delegates or 4.99% then Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville) with 24 delegates for 3.99% then Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia) with 8 delegates or 1.33% and Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06, Cook)and former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) barely register with 4 votes or .05%

 When you look at the numbers the various campaigns have provided for named sub-caucuses MAK continues to lead although with a smaller margin, again in named sub-caucuses only, showing 150 or 15.46%, Rybak still comes in second with 147 or 14.12%, Thissen has 67.5 or 6.96%, Marty 44.5 or 4.59%, Ruk 42 or 4.33%, Entenza 26.5 or 2.73%, Bakk 25.5 or 2.63% and Susan Gaertner has as many delegates as Ole Savior with one.

We are paying attention to the ReNew Minnesota sub-caucuses because they reflect the involvement of TakeAction Minnesota. As we have heard this group plans to move as a block, but as far as we can see they are mainly a Twin Cities phenomenon and will not even have 10% at the DFL State Convention. It bears reminding the results of the TakeAction poll were: Rybak 336 votes, Thissen 264 votes and Anderson-Kelliher 261 votes. It would seem logical for supporters of Marty to follow along with this group, but because Marty came in fourth and because his supports or the most zealous, they would rather be right than be with a winner. We expect Kelliher will be in the lead early and so the greater impact for TakeAction should result in support for Thissen and then Rybak.

From a scrutiny of the websites of each of the candidates and their listed endorsees only MAK, Rybak and Thissen have support in the automatic delegate category from people other than themselves. If we look at these numbers and include the automatic delegates things take on a slightly different picture. The separation between MAK and Rybak widens to 198 or 17.85% compared to 149 or 14.33%.

We focused on the named sub-caucuses to better sort out the situation leading into this weekend’s conventions and in regards to the picture overall. The two blocks we will be watching closely are Marty delegates and ReNew Minnesota. These people are the least pragmatic or even practical people. They will be the ones who effectively muck up the works. The only difference between this convention and 1994 is that John Marty will not be the DFL endorsee on April 24^th.

We have been trying to glean information on overall delegate totals, but feel the numbers reflect the base support for each candidate and will provide a foundation to draw on as we get closer to the DFL State Convention. As the campaigns become more comfortable with their numbers they are likely to be more forthcoming. We understand MAK has support from more auto delegates, claiming even as high as 70, which will become known as the convention draw nearer. Rybak likes people to look to the blogs for their numbers because poor counters there give them an edge.

We will sit back and let things happen, while continuing to keep dialing the campaigns and the party for more information.

To see the delegate numbers from the DFL Party click here.

To see the numbers from the various campaigns click here.

Emma Greenman formerly of Wellstone Action joined the Margaret Anderson Kelliher Campaign yesterday. We understand she will be helping establish the campaign floor strategy for MAK. This is an interesting hire especially for those who think Jeff Bloggett in effect pulls the strings for TakeAction Minnesota through Dan Mcgrath.

Since Kelliher finished third in the TakeAction endorsement it seems like she could use help in the progressive community.

We spoke with Sen. Terri Bonoff (DFL-43, Minnetonka) about a forward thinking piece of legislation calling for a Constitutional Amendment to “providing for public debt to be incurred for public information technology systems, licenses and infrastructure.”  We think Bonoff is right to expand the scope of bonding to include infrastructure needs currently borne from operational budgets in the various government entities.

The DFL leadership met with reporters at 2:00pm in room 181 of the State Office Building. Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller (DFL-59, Minneapolis) opened his comments saying, “Nothing exciting in the forecast.” He reiterated the fact the state deficit is nearly one billion and Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) has yet to propose a budget fully accounting for the deficit.

Pogemiller discussed the difference as a short-term problem, which through the veto hides the long-term budget problem. He said because of the veto by Pawlenty on the General Assistance Medical Care  (GAMC) the state is on a path to billions of dollars in deficit in the Health Care Access Fund.  The GAMC fix will now cost $1.4 billion upfront and $840 million in the next year. He also noted the $400 million anticipated by the Administrator still has yet to be allocated and it is not clear if the money will exist prior to the close of the legislative session.

Once again Pogemiller informed reporters how he will begin to tackle the budget crisis by passing the Governor’s proposed cuts in various department starting with Higher Education, Environment, State Government, Agriculture and Veterans Affairs, Public Safety and the Judiciary. He said it will be the Senate’s intent to match the Governor’s numbers, with a full expectation Republican legislators will not stomach as dramatic of cuts, especially in the areas of Local Government Aid and nursing homes.

House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) called on Pawlenty to return to the table to negotiate on the Bonding Bill. She said she learned to measure twice and only cut once saying the decisions by the governor amount to “kicking the can down the road.”

We asked House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) about the intent of the counties to begin enrolling the people affected by the changes in GAMC as early as Friday and asked his plan with regard to the bill currently tabled in the House. He said, he will wait until a deal is reached. We followed with recognition of the Republicans members who had voted for the bill requested a delay until after the Revenue Forecast release to which Speaker Kelliher responded the cost of waiting is $12 million. She called the idea of waiting “irresponsible.”

In his press conference Governor Pawlenty produced a document we’ve seen previously showing the growth of State Government since 1960 from one biennium to the next. During Governor Karl Rolvaag (DFL) administration the rise in spending is shown as 22.6%, Harrold LeVander (R) 46.2%, Wendell Anderson (DFL) 34.4%, Rudy Perpich (DFL) 16.1%, Jesse Ventura (IP) 12.2% and Tim Pawlenty (R) 3.6%.

During his press conference we asked a question about the state’s fiscal health as judged by outside entities and quoted a Moody’s report entitled, MOODY'S REVISES STATE OF MINNESOTA'S OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE AND AFFIRMS Aa1 GENERAL OBLIGATION RATING. The article stated the following, which we read to Pawlenty “The negative outlook reflects Minnesota's ongoing financial and economic weakness, resulting from revenue underperformance and leading to sizeable out-year budget deficits, and tightening liquidity.” Then we asked what he intended to do to improve the state’s bonding position. He said, Minnesota like other states is experiencing a fiscal crisis and our state maintains a AAa (Triple A) Bond rating with two houses and this change has not yet been implemented.

Regarding the proposed process for implementing the cuts in the Senate he said, “we will take budget cuts anyway they want to deliver them.” If, “They may want to meter it out.” it is a procedural issue.

We asked him, as we had the House Minority Leader Kurt Zellers (R-32B, Maplegrove) what he said to the House Republican Caucus after the failed GAMC override, to which he said, “I told them thanks for supporting me. We are looking at a 30% increase of growth in the program.” When we asked Zellers he said the governor spoke to their caucus earlier in the legislative session than usual, but that he (Pawlenty) was willing to solve the GMAC problem and was ready to meet as early as that night to do so.

Pawlenty called on the DFL to present their budget by March 17^th and Pogemiller did say he expected the Senate Republicans to help pass the cuts in the budget as proposed by Pawlenty pointing out Sen. Assistant Majority Leader Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina) is often a critic but usually votes in favor of the final bills on the floor of the Senate.

The state’s future outlook is slightly improved over the projections announced in November. The forecast shows a $209 million projected change with $184 million in expenditure reductions and $25 million increases in revenues. The $184 million in expenditure reductions is largely offset by money from the federal stimulus and the increased revenue comes from corporate sales tax. We asked Minnesota Management and Budget Commissioner his thoughts on the budget improvements stemming from the federal stimulus Tom Hanson to which he said, “It’s nice to have more money.”

As is always one of our main concerns we inquired as to the impact the budget figures will have on the State’s Debt Capacity and were told we would be informed the figure later in the day. During the press conference State Economist Tom Stinson was asked about the start time of the Bonding Bill and he said, an early start was better and as we move closer to the start of the construction season it will be better to employ people so they can be paid and begin spending monies in their communities. As somewhat of a political counter Hanson emphasized the importance of Bonding projects which will have a longer-term impact than just the time of their construction.

Now we are waiting for the Republican response at 12:30 pm in room 181 of the State Office Building, the DFL response to the report at 1:00 pm, and Governor Tim Pawlenty's (R) response at 2:00 pm in his reception room.