State Auditor Candidate Pat Anderson (R) put an interesting post up on her Facebook page yesterday. She posted she is willing to bet with anyone that Republican will take both the U.S. House and the state House this election. It appears Anderson is a believer in national trends impacting Minnesota.

If the generic ballot for the U.S. House favors Republicans and Republicans in the House of Representatives then it could also carry the Republican Constitutional Candidates. There is one wrinkle in this idea and that is on a statewide basis the Minnesota rarely does a “do over” on a previous decision. When Paul Wellstone (D) beat U.S. Senator Rudy Boschwitz (R) in 1990, the electorate reinforced the decision in 1996, with a larger margin for U.S. Senator Wellstone.

Historically, Democratic strategists have focused on motivating three traditional groups to show up and support their respective candidate in a Primary election. These are: Seniors, Women and Party Activists/Labor Union members. In Minnesota, this three-legged stool may be expanding to incorporate a fourth leg. An emerging electorate consisting of new constituency groups is growing and each year will play a larger role in our future electoral results.

Immigrant communities of Hispanics, East Africans and Hmong all are seeing increases in their populations due to in migration and child birth. Additionally, the longer these communities reside here in the state the greater the number of people who seek and receive citizenship, making them eligible voters. We will see the size of growth once the results of the 2010 U.S. Census is known.

The electoral experience in other countries is far different than here in the United States. The reason many of the people have traveled across the globe to come to our state is often for political asylum. The global conflicts in Somalia, Ethiopia and South East Asia have shaped the impressions these communities have with their governments and often times the experience is not favorable. Casting a vote for the wrong political party is a life-threatening decision.

If our political community can engage these new Americans and encourage them to vote they will find rewards through their political participation. The elections of Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN5) in 2006 and President Barack Obama (D) in 2008 are direct examples to these communities of the successes capable in an American democracy.

In order to best understand the Primary electorate it is warranted to review past elections. In 2000, 433,399 people voted in the DFL Primary for U.S. Senate with Mark Dayton (D) carrying 41.29%. In 2006, in a Gubernatorial Primary between Attorney General Mike Hatch and for State Auditor Judi Dutcher (DFL) against State Senator Becky Lourey and Tom Baylor (DFL) 316,470 people voted in the Primary with Hatch and Dutcher securing 73.20% of the vote. In 2008, 251,205 people voted in the U.S. Senate Primary with Al Franken (DFL) receiving 65.34% of the vote.

If anticipated turnout for an August Primary is expected to be lower, then the participation rate seen in 2006 is a good indicator to make any assessments from. If the expected universe of the Primary electorate is around 300,000 then questions ascertaining who has the greater base is a worthy exercise.

Many see this race as Dayton’s to lose, mainly due to name recognition and most of the early polling has shows him in the lead. The most recent poll from KSTP/Survey USA shows Dayton (D) with 39%; Kelliher (DFL) at 26%; Matt Entenza (DFL) at 22%; and 14% undecided. So far only Dayton and Entenza are running television commercials, but the question is will a Primary electorate respond best to a general advertising campaign or not?

Going back to the structure of a DFL Primary electorate Dayton is expected to fare well with Seniors due to his self-financed bus trips to Canada for prescription drugs in 2000 and continued his focus on Senior issues this election specifically his selection of Sen. Yvonne Prettner-Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as head of his Senior Service Center. He also has the support of some organized labor with the endorsements of AFSCME Council 5, Teamsters 32, the Steelworkers and Police and Peace Officers Federation. Collectively, these unions represent approximately 135,000 members.

As the DFL endorsed candidate Kelliher has many tools at her disposal she has access to the DFL voter file, which has improved significantly through incorporation of the Voter Action Network (VAN). This means good and great Democrats are identifiable available for targeting efforts. The DFL sample ballot is one of the traditional outreach methods. The DFL endorsed candidate has succeeded in the all Primary contests since 2000, when Dayton defeated Senator Jerry Janezich (DFL).

Along with the party’s endorsement Kelliher has the support of a far greater number of labor unions. AFSCME Council 65, Building & Trades, Education MN, Carpenter’s Union, CWA, IBEW, Machinists, MN Nurses, Operating Engineers and Unite HERE. This coalition consists of organizations representing over 300,000 members. The question is whether the support of the leadership of these unions will result in votes on August 10^th.

Kelliher has one unique factor in this election, gender and she has been capitalizing on it, but polling is not showing any advantage for her in this category with the Primary electorate. The MPR/Humphrey Institute poll in May, Dayton outpolled Kelliher with women. The questions regarding gender may also be a factor in the endorsing unions. Most of the labor unions are heavily dominated by men. It should be noted many of the labor leaders are men and they elected to support Kelliher. There are only five unions who have higher numbers of women in their membership; AFSCME Council 5 & 65, Education Minnesota, MAPE and MN Nurses, of these four out of five have endorsed Kelliher.

We continue to feel Entenza will be the odd man out this election in spite of a significant increase in his support numbers in the KSTP Poll. In a three-way race he will need to leapfrog Kelliher to be a factor in this election and challenge Dayton directly. We doubt that will happen he lacks a natural base in the Primary electorate.

In advance of the vote, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) decried the fairness of the endorsement process of the Minnesota AFL-CIO because of an early press release announcing support for House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) prior to the screening. The vote to endorse Kelliher failed 35 to 27 with 42 votes required to confer the endorsement for the requisite 2/3^rd majority. After the result Dayton’s calls for fairness seem to have been unnecessarily since the outcome was the best he could have hoped for.

We were interested in the AFL-CIO endorsement politics and so we made a few calls. Coming into the vote Dayton carried the support of AFSCME Council 5 and the United Steelworkers accounting for 19 votes of the 69 available or 27.53%. As we understand only 62 people voted meaning the Dayton block was even larger. This was not a table set to endorse Kelliher.

Our intelligence gathering informs us President Shar Knutson and Secretary/Treasurer Steve Hunter originally from AFSCME voted in favor of endorsing Kelliher and against the endorsement of their former union, but others also voted contrary to their unions. The Communications Workers Association had three votes in the endorsement and both Tim Lovaasen and Tim Donovan voted against a Kelliher endorsement, Bill McCarthy is actually more of a Unite Here vote than actually a CWA vote. Brianna Halverson (IAMAW) also voted not to endorse as did Mary Broderick (Education MN), Mike Hawthorne (Minneapolis Building Trades) and Charlie Witt (Ironworkers).

If these people had voted in favor of Kelliher she could have secured the endorsement. This is why the Building & Trades waited to announce their endorsement after the results of the AFL-CIO became known.

In spite of losing the AFL-CIO endorsement many of the labor unions who endorsed Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) have comprehensive plans to get their membership to vote absentee in the DFL Primary. They are treating the Primary Election the same way they would a General Election.

The plans are:

· Phone members informing them of the forthcoming Primary election, who their respective union has endorsed and notice of an Absentee Ballot arriving in the mail.

· Mail Absentee Ballot

· Mail follow-up post card

· Where possible distribute work site flier

· Final phone call for GOTV

If the labor unions supporting MAK are able to get a majority of their membership to vote for their endorsed candidate then the Primary result is far less daunting. We understand name recognition is one of Kelliher‘s biggest problems, but one-on-one contact between labor leaders and their membership may not be reflected in any polling figures.

We were interested in the endorsement piece sent out by AFSCME Council 5 in support of their endorsed candidate former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D). In the item entitled “AFSMCE members need a governor who supports them” Dayton, Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) and Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) are all singled out. Since the match-up with Emmer will not take place until November 2^nd it is clear the intent is to undercut Emmer at every turn.

What is surprising is the lack reference to former DFL House Minority Leader Matt Entenza anywhere in the piece. Is it the fact AFSCME Council 5 considers Entenza a non-factor in the Primary Election? Is this a back-handed way AFSCME Council 5 President Elliot Seide can assist his friend Entenza without showing any outright support? Or was there just not enough room to include Entenza, but then why incorporate Emmer in a Primary piece where he is not a candidate?

One other interesting question this raises is if the leader of the state house leader is inadequate to the state’s largest public employee labor union then what about the members of the majority who also supported to cut the state budget by $2.6 million. Is AFSCME Council 5 putting itself at odds with House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) and the entirety of the DFL House should they retain majority?

To view the piece click here:

Judge Gerald Heaney is one of the most influential people in DFL politics. He is known for his work in desegregation decisions from St. Louis, MO to Little Rock, AR. He was instrumental in the formation of the DFL party along with Orville Freeman, Hubert H. Humphrey II and Walter Mondale.

Politically, his appointment to the 8th Circuit Appeals Court proved to be a great benefit to the DFL Party during redistricting decisions. He drew the political boundaries in 1971 and 1981 creating district favorable to DFL candidate and resulted in legislative majorities in each instance.

He passed away on Tuesday at the age of 92 and is survived by his wife Eleanor.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in January on Citizen’s United v. Federal Elections Commission is likely to impact in our elections this year. We understand the business community is concerned interest groups and the DFL Party will be able to paint GOP endorsed candidate Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) and will begin running ads in July to soften his image. The group to be headed by Brian McClung and financed by members of the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce will play role in this summer's campaign.

Since Emmer lacks a legitimate challenge in the Republican Primary he has a virtually cakewalk to the up until August 10^th. Problem is Emmer could become a caricature of the extreme Republican Right. His past fiery debates on the House floor along with his knack for going for the jugular could identify him more with the Tea Party movement than it will mainstream Conservatives. This also could be a response to Emmer's endorsement by former Alaska Governor Sara Palin (R).

The existence of former Republican Commentator Tom Horner (IP) may give moderates a place to land if they are uncomfortable with Emmer, which would end the Republican lock on the Governor’s Mansion since 1990, with one exception being the election of Jesse Ventura in 1998.

With the filing period is over and there being twenty-four open legislative seats we thought a listing of the various match-ups warranted some consideration. In the following article we discuss potential impact on the DFL Governor's race. 

A number of interesting legislative primaries are set for August 10th. On the House DFL side first-term Rep.  John Persell (DFL-04A, Bemidji) has drawn a primary challenge from Mark Thorson (DFL). The selection by former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) of Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon (DFL-07, Duluth) as his running mate created a bit of dominos and resulted in two primaries. The choice by Rep. Roger Reinert (DFL-07B, Duluth) to seek the senate seat opened up his house seat and creates a primary contest between Jay Cole (DFL) and Kerry Gauthier (DFL). The St. Cloud 15B seat being vacated by Rep. Larry Haws sets up a contest between Zachary Dorholt (DFL) and Carol Lewis (DFL).  In the Blaine area of District 51A, DFL Endorsed Candidate Zak Chlebeck is matched against Omar Merhi (DFL). In Minneapolis, Rep. Joe Mullery (DFL-58A, Minneapolis) is being challenged by David Anthony Boyd (DFL) and the St. Paul seat vacated by Rep. Cy Thao creates a match-up between the DFL endorsed candidate and Jeremiah Ellis and Rena Moran. Moran has the backing of TakeAction Minnesota and it will be interesting to see who has more pull the DFL Party or a self-described progressive organization.  

The Republicans have a few House primary fights of their own to complete. The Mora area will watch former Mora Mayor Roger Crawford (R) and Rudy Takala (R) slug it out to ultimately face-off against Rep. Tim Faust (DFL-08B, Mora) in November. There is no GOP endorsement in this race.  The open seat 17B, currently held by retiring DFL Rep. Jeremy Kalin, has Wyoming Mayor Sheldon Anderson (R) competing with GOP endorsed candidate Bob Barrett (R). District 29A, being vacated by Rep. Randy Demmer (R) in his bid for Congress in the 1st Congressional District, has GOP endorsed candidate Duane Quam defending against Kerry Stoick (R).  Rep. Mark Buesgens (R- 35B, Jordan) will need to take time from his duties as Campaign Manager for GOP Gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer (R) to fend-off a challenge from Tom Rees (R).  The Maplewood seat held by Rep. Leon Lillie (DFL-55A, Maplewood) has GOP endorsed candidate Nathan Hansen facing a challenge from Bob Zwick (R) and in District 62A, GOP endorsed candidate Wes Whitby  will need to hold-off Kirk Brink (R) in order to face Rep. Jim Davnie (DFL-62A, Minneapolis).

The primary in Senate District 07 pits Rep. Roger Reinert (DFL-07B, Duluth) against Harry R. Welty (DFL). The retirement of Sen. Steve Murphy (DFL-28, Red Wing) set the stage for a contest between Joe Fricke (DFL) and Bruce Montplaisir (DFL). Three-term incumbent Sen. Ann Rest (DFL-45, New Hope) is defending herself against Patrick Wiles (DFL). After his self-imposed wounding Sen. Satveer Chaudhary (DFL-50, Fridley) is facing a challenge from Barb Goodwin (DFL), a former House member who served until 2006. Four-term incumbent Sen. Linda Higgins (DFL-58, Minneapolis) is in a fight with two opponents, Troy Parker (DFL) and Kale Severson (DFL).  The most clogged field of candidates is in St. Paul where nine DFLers are seeking the opportunity to replace Sen. Mee Moua. The field is contains: four Hmong, two African American and one Eastern Indian candidate.  The candidates are: St. Paul Police Chief John M. Harrington, Foung Hawj (Heu), Tom Hilber, Chai Lee, Vang T. Lor, Jim McGowan, Trayshana P. Thomas, Avi Viswanathan and Cha Yang.

Republicans will see a primaries in Senate District 01 between GOP endorsed candidate Roger Schmitz and Russell Walker, Senate District 12 between embattled incumbent Sen. Paul Koering (R-12, Fort Ripley) and former one-term Rep. Paul Gazelka who carries the GOP endorsement, in Senate District  16 it’s a race between GOP endorsed candidate Dave Brown and Patrick D. Munro (R) and lastly in Senate District 41 Sen. Geoff Michel (R-41, Edina) faces a party challenge from William “Bill” Reichert.

There is a potential for some of these races to foster greater participation in the DFL Governor’s Primary contest. Any external factors generating larger turnout in pockets around the state can have an impact on the races up the ballot.

Speculation of the August Primary having a lower turnout is expected in many quarters, but a lower turnout of whom is what people should be asking. If August is a prime month for people to be off at their cabins then it is likely these voters could be lower in number, but if a person doesn’t own a cabin or use a state park they will likely be home on the second Tuesday in August. There is a potential for lower income voters to play a larger role in this election, if they can be motivated.

In addition to the primaries for the state legislative seats there are primaries for three of the seven Hennepin County Commissioner seats. In spite of these seats being non-partisan the DFL has endorsed a number of candidates. First District Commissioner Mike Opat (DFL) is the DFL endorsed candidate and he is facing Tom Reynolds and Mary O’Connor. Second District Commissioner Mark Stenglien (DFL) is the DFL endorsed candidate and he is facing Blair Tremere and Roger Smithrud. Finally, Third District Commissioner Gayle Dorfman (DFL) is also the DFL endorsed candidate and she faces Barry Lazarus and Jeffery Beck. In each instance the two highest vote total recipients will see each other again in November.

In Ramsey County, there is one County-wide contest in the Ramsey County Attorney’s race where DFL endorsed candidate, former St. Paul City Attorney John Choi is contending with GOP endorsed candidate Tammy Pust and Hamline Law Professor David Schultz. Additionally, First District County Commissioner Rafael Ortega (DFL) carries the DFL endorsement against Andy Noble and Charles Barkind.

These races will help and their campaigns will help motivate some voters come to the polls, who might be just as willing to sit home. The statewide question on the governor’s race is the first question on the ballot followed by the county races and then the legislative contests.

As we look at the various races there could be a benefit for House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) in the more urban races. The more voters that show up to vote in the legislative primaries in Minneapolis and St. Paul could be helpful to her campaign. Since gender is her unique attribute Kelliher could find support from voters in South Minneapolis and St. Louis Park supporting County Commissioner Gayle Dorfman, in Fridley from those voting for Barb Goodwin (DFL) in Senate District 50, in New Hope and Robinsdale from those supporting Sen. Ann Rest (DFL-54, New Hope) and in North and Downtown Minneapolis from those voting for Sen. Linda Higgins (DFL-58, Minneapolis).  

Likewise, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) should benefit from the primaries in Bemidji and Duluth. Since the only African-American candidate in this race is former DFL House Majority Leader Matt Entenza’s Lt. Governor pick of Robyne Robinson, her addition could be a factor in North Minneapolis, the Frogtown race in St. Paul and on St. Paul’s East side, but it is unlikely. People rarely vote because of a Lt. Governor selection. The Hispanic vote is essentially up for grabs and since no one candidate gets the benefits bestowed by a Latin name, this constituency group might be swayed by the DFL endorsement, since the party has chartered a Hispanic Caucus and actively outreaches into this community.

Update: the Campaign Finances and Public Disclosure Board has decided not to take up the GOP's complaint against Tom Horner.

In this modern day political landscape even a tweet on Twitter can result in a campaign possible violation. Earlier this week, Independence Party Candidate Tom Horner sent out a tweet about results from a forthcoming poll to be published in the Pioneer Press and taken by Decisions Resources, Ltd. Decisions Resources, Ltd is a polling firm run by Bill Morris, a financial contributor to Horner’s campaign and used by Horner’s PR firm Himle Horner.  It is clear someone is watching and reading the electronic communications.

In the complaint filed by the State Republican Party they allege Horner received a corporate campaign contribution from Decision Resources, Ltd, Inc and the cost of the poll should be calculated as an in-kind expenditure. Here is the text for the first release on the issue: