Public Subsidy Numbers Announced

Today, the Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board announced the numbers of public subsidy for the candidate running for state office. In order to qualify for the subsidy candidates are required to meet the following obligations:

To qualify for a public subsidy payment a candidate must:

• be opposed at either the primary or general election

• appear on the general election ballot,

• sign and timely file a public subsidy agreement with the Board to abide by

  applicable campaign expenditure limits,

• and sign and timely file an affidavit of contributions stating that the candidate

  accumulated a specified amount in contributions from individuals eligible to vote

  in Minnesota.

Because former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL) is self-financing he will receive $0, but it also means his opponents receive the maximum amounts. To view the amounts for all candidates click here: http://www.cfboard.state.mn.us/publicsubsidy/2010_Press_Release_Public_Subsidy_Payments.pdf

We found the announcement of the decision by Republican Candidate Tom Emmer's (R-19B, Delano) campaign to skip the League of Greater MN Cities debate not all that surprising. In 2002, then candidate Tim Pawlenty (R) attended their debate and after being elected a CD-Rom of his comments to the group made the rounds at the Capitol noting his commitment to LGA during the debate and attempting to expose his hypocrisy after.

The only candidate in the race with strong Greater Minnesota credentials is former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) and as evidenced from the result in the DFL Primary, where Dayton carried nearly all of the northern counties, except Clay and a majority of 70 of the 87 counties over his opponents. The political impact of Greater Minnesota has lessened significantly as will be noted in the next reapportionment and redistricting, but their loyalty to politicians who understand the trials and tribulations of life outside of the seven county metropolitan area is in evidence.

If as Emmer claims he never runs from a fight, then opting out of this venue is not consistent with this statement. It remains our assessment of statewide electoral results the Democratic base is 43% and the Republican base is 37% with 20% independents. Emmer can not afford to be reliant on just the suburban vote to ensure his voictory in November.  

For some the 2010 DFL Gubernatorial Primary created déjà vu providing a back to the future feel of 1982. The DFL gubernatorial fight in 1982 consisted of a contest between former Lt. Governor Rudy Perpich (DFL) and DFL endorsee Attorney General Warren Spannaus, during which a similar northern Minnesota effect occurred to what we saw on August 10th.

There definite differences in the Perpich and Spannaus race compared to that of Dayton, Kelliher and Entenza, mainly because in 1982 the fight was mostly a head-to-head contest. The Iron Range results provided an overwhelming amount for Perpich and won the day.

1982                             Perpich                        Spannaus                   

                     Area Total Vote    Area%  State%   Vote    Area% State%

Anoka               22353   11548   51.66%  2.14%   10294   46.05% 1.91%

Hennepin         113597   42394   37.32%  7.87%   68836   60.60% 12.78%

Ramsey            65534   20360   31.07%  3.78%   44049   67.22% 8.18%

Dakota             19086     8377   43.89%  1.56%   10275   53.84% 1.91%

Washington       12179    5260   43.19%  0.98%     6652   54.62% 1.24%

Scott                 5043     2857   56.65%  0.53%     2045   40.55% 0.38%

Carver                3586     1918   53.49%  0.36%     1546   43.11% 0.29%

Isanti                 3767     2303   61.14%  0.43%     1365   36.24% 0.25%

Itasca              11872    10059   84.73%  1.87%     1530   12.89% 0.28%

Chisago             4646     2347   50.52%  0.44%     2139    46.04% 0.40%

Olmsted             5644     3522   62.40%  0.65%    1956    34.66% 0.36%

Sherburne          4031     2352   58.35%   0.44%   1517    37.63% 0.28%

St Louis           55124   45058   81.74%   8.37%    9091   16.49% 1.69%

Carlton               6757    4917   72.77%   0.91%    1641    24.29% 0.30%

Cook                   888      613    69.03%  0.11%      249    28.04% 0.05%

Lake                  4125    3237    78.47%  0.60%      783    18.98% 0.15%

Total               275920                                       248218  

The final outcome of the DFL Gubernatorial Primary paints an interesting picture of current Democratic voting patterns. Throughout Tuesday night, the election returns showed Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) leading by a significant margin mainly due to her accumulation of a 16,000 vote margin in Hennepin County, but the Iron Range numbers had yet to be reported. In DFL politics in both primary and general races the focus is on the 4th, 5th and 8th Congressional Districts. Thse districts account for better than have of the state’s voting population. Since the primary election results are not as easily obtained in this fashion we tend look to the various counties to disaggregate the numbers. 

The strategy developed by  Kelliher Campaign Manager Jamie Tincher focused on contact with 180,000 DFL primary voters—resulting in a vote total of 175,807 votes or 95.67% of the goal—if this were the only measurement the campaign is a ringing success, but as we know the final tally did not go Kelliher’s way. Dayton bested Kelliher by 6,873 votes or 1.55% with 182,680 votes for an overall 41.32% and Entenza came in a distant third 80,498 for 18.21%. 

Kelliher is the only candidate to outperform her polling figures in the election. Now we feel the polls leading up to the election were flawed significantly because the sample size did not reflect a sample of strictly potential DFL voters, but was drawn from a general election sample. The ability to extrapolate from a large group down to a smaller one is a poor polling method. Entenza performed on par with our expectation of 17% as did Dayton as we anticipated show in the low 40’s, but Kelliher exceeded expectations far beyond the margin of error. 

Ironically, the longer Kelliher’s political commercials ran the higher her numbers grew and had she not supported a change in the date of the DFL Primary from September to August she may have prevailed. If her campaign had another week the potential for success also grew.   

Many saw the selection of former state Finance Commissioner John Gunyou as a general election strategy rather than a primary strategy, but Kelliher seems to have picked up votes in the western Hennepin County communities. Basically, the Kelliher Campaign seemed to be mounting an urban core plus suburbs strategy attempting to offset the support of former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) strength on the Iron Range and with senior voters. 

The county level is a good indicator of how an election plays out and an even deeper cross-section is by viewing the outcome in the legislative districts. In the battle for counties, Kelliher lost out to Dayton significantly. Dayton carried 70 counties, Kelliher 10 and Entenza two. Additionally, Dayton carried 19 counties by better than 50%, these counties are: Aitkin, Carlton, Grant, Isanti, Kanabec, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Mower, Norman, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake, Roseau, St. Louis, Swift, and Traverse. Many may have small voting populations, but the margins do accumulate votes.  

Kelliher prevailed in the metropolitan counties of: Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey and Washington with the greatest raw vote advantage in Hennepin. She only beat Dayton in ten non-metropolitan counties: Blue Earth, Clay, Houston, Nicollet, Olmsted, Pipestone, Redwood, Rice, Rock and Winona, but no margin exceeded 50% and with the exception of Clay none of these places extended into northern Minnesota. 

                                                                     Dayton                               Kelliher 
                     State Total  Area Total    Vote          Area%     State%      Vote       Area%
Anoka                                   23234        10796       46.47%      2.44%       8126      34.97%
Hennepin                            112495        39544       35.15%      8.94%     55799     49.60%
Ramsey                                58535         19814      33.85%       4.48%     25341      43.29%
Dakota                                  26659         10554      39.59%      2.39%     10876      40.80%
Washington                          18436           6962      37.76%       1.57%        7669      41.60%
Scott                                       5942            2613       43.98%      0.59%       2144      36.08%
Carver                                    4392            1719        39.14%      0.39%       1794      40.85%
Isanti                                      2768            1430        51.66%      0.32%        827       29.88%
Itasca                                     7034            3316        47.14%      0.75%       2187       31.09%
Chisago                                  3933             1787        45.44%      0.40%     1390       35.34%
Olmsted                                8456             3298        39.00%      0.75%     3462       40.94%
Sherburne                            4091             1870        45.71%       0.42%     1400       34.22%
St Louis                               27166          15234         56.08%     3.45%       7921       29.16%
Carlton                                  4191             2260         53.93%     0.51%      1257       29.99%
Cook                                     1204                506         42.03%     0.11%        475        39.45%
Lake                                     2320              1202         51.81%      0.27%       764        32.93%
Total                  442087                        182,680                                     175,807 

                                             Entenza  
                            Area Total   Vote    Area%   State%
Anoka                     23234     4104    17.66%    0.93%
Hennepin             112495    16624    14.78%    3.76%
Ramsey                 58535    12988    22.19%    2.94%
Dakota                   26659      5079    19.05%    1.15%
Washington           18436       3719    20.17%   0.84%
Scott                         5942       1143    19.24%   0.26%
Carver                      4392        850    19.35%   0.19%
Isanti                        2768        500    18.06%   0.11%
Itasca                       7034       1436    20.42%  0.32%
Chisago                    3933         730     18.56%  0.17%
Olmsted                   8456      1641      19.41%  0.37%
Sherburne               4091        791      19.34%   0.18%
St Louis                  27166     3757      13.83%    0.85%
Carlton                      4191      627       14.96%    0.14%
Cook                          1204      201      16.69%     0.05%
Lake                          2320      331      14.27%     0.07%
Total                                   80,498

Looking at the race in key legislative districts, especially those having a legislative primary contest as well the following picture emerges.

                                               Dayton                    Kelliher
Leg District    Area Total   Area Vote  Area%  Overall%  Area Vote     Area%  Overall%
       04A               3956             1704     43.07%    0.39%        1416          35.79%    0.32%
       05A               6089             3888     63.85%    0.88%        1501         24.65%    0.34%
       05B               5237             3009     57.46%     0.68%        1370         26.16%    0.31%
       07A               4906             2319     47.27%     0.52%         1797         36.63%    0.41%
       07B               3738             2059      55.08%    0.47%        1065         28.49%    0.24%
       50A              3982             1934       48.57%    0.44%        1396          35.06%   0.32%
       50B              4202             1545       36.77%    0.35%         1951          46.43%   0.44%
       58A              2942             1140       38.75%    0.26%         1093          37.15%   0.25%
       58B              2893               954       32.98%    0.22%         1128           38.99%  0.26%
       60A             5720             1299        22.71%    0.29%         3812           66.64%  0.86%
       60B              7187             1752        24.38%    0.40%         4757           66.19%  1.08%
       62A             6605             1971        29.84%    0.45%         3936           59.59%  0.89%
       62B             6029             1972        32.71%     0.45%         3316          55.00%  0.75%
       64A            6332             1503         23.74%    0.34%         3152           49.78%  0.71%
       64B             6761             1948         28.81%    0.44%         3467          51.28%   0.78%
       65A            2783               850         30.54%    0.19%          905            32.52%  0.20%
       67A            3480             1250         35.92%    0.28%        1041           29.91%   0.24%
       67B            3403             1262          37.08%    0.29%        1092          32.09%   0.25% 
  

                                    Entenza                                                         

Leg District  Area Total   Area Vote     Area%  Overall%                               

      04A             3956               786         19.87%      0.18%                                 

      05A             6089               656         10.77%      0.15%                                 

      05B              5237               800         15.28%     0.18%                                 

      07A             4906                758         15.45%      0.17%                                 

      07B              3738                563         15.06%     0.13%                                 

     50A              3982                613          15.39%     0.14%                        

     50B              4202                675          16.06%     0.15%                        

     58A              2942                689          23.42%     0.16%                        

     58B              2893                 787          27.20%     0.18%                        

     60A              5720                586          10.24%     0.13%                        

     60B               7187                660            9.18%     0.15%                        

     62A              6605                681          10.31%     0.15%                           

     62B              6029                719           11.93%     0.16%                        

     64A              6332              1657           26.17%     0.37%                        

     64B               6761              1301           19.24%    0.29%                        

     65A               2783               996            35.79%    0.23%                        

     67A               3480              1151           33.07%    0.26%                        

     67B               3403                995          29.24%     0.23%

Additionally, to a Kelliher supporter Entenza played the role of spoiler and he did succeed in spending the highest amount per vote in the history of a statewide election here and nationwide. If he spent all of the money he invested it translates into $64.76/vote, which exceeds by $7.49 the previous record in California set by Al Checchi of $57.37. Although as it was pointed out to us by Entenza Campaign Manager Dave Colling, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) makes these numbers look like chump change. In his last reelection Bloomberg spent $1059.25 per voter.

Dayton maintained frontrunner status throughout and because he had held statewide office on two occasions he in effect can be seen as the incumbent. If Entenza had remained out of the mix Kelliher could have prevailed.

So if we look at the outcome of these specific counties, combining all non-Dayton votes the race may have look like this:

Anoka             53.53%

Hennepin       64.85%

Ramsey          66.15%

Dakota            60.41%

Washington   62.24%

Scott               56.02%

Carver            60.86%

Isanti              48.34%

Itasca             52.86%

Chisago           54.56%

Olmsted         61.00%

Sherburne     54.29%

St Louis          43.92%

Carlton           46.07%

Cook               57.97%

Lake               48.19%

The challenger could have prevailed by taking the majority vote in Anoka, Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Washington, Scott, Carver, Itasca, Chisago, Olmsted and Cook Counties.

On Monday, a reader asked us if we had put any thought into the bevy of commercials paying in this market intent on making Mormons seem just like anyone else and if it is a contrivance by supporters of former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). With the primary contest looming we put it on the back burner, but afterwards find it interesting that others find the question worth delving into.

The Twin Cities is on of nine markets the commercials are running in along with Rochester, NY, Tucson AZ, St. Louis MO, Jacksonville, FL, Oklahoma City, OK, Colorado Springs, CO and Baton Rouge, LA.

We came across two interesting articles in Salon http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/08/09/mormon_ad_campaign/index.html and the Minnesota Independent http://minnesotaindependent.com/63455/mormons-take-to-the-airwaves-in-minneapolis-eight-other-cities we think are worth reading.

This may be an attempt to sway Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) to accept Mormons as upstanding, average people and increase his comfort level to be Romney’s running mate.

This just in, the Minnesota Court of Appeals has rendered a strong opinion opposing the opening of rejected absentee ballots in the Al Franken v. Norm Coleman 2008 U.S. Senate race. The lower court had ruled incorrectly the unopened ballots are considered public data. 

http://www.mncourts.gov/opinions/coa/current/opa100395-0810.pdf

We had the pleasure of talking to Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D) this morning about today's primary activity. We learned as of 4:50 pm yesterday 28,992 absentee ballots have been processed. Up until yesterday, the rate of acceptance was 500-1000 and included walk-ins. The ability to walk-in and cast an absentee ballot ended yesterday.

We will update the figure latter in the day as more information becomes available. He projects a turnout of 12% statewide for all three major parties, but acknowledges the bulk will be in the DFL primary. If the Independence primary exceeds 20,000 many people, including us, will be surprised.

We just received a call telling us the next KSTP/Survey USA poll has former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) at 43%, House Speaker Maragret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) at 27% and for House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) at 22%. We expect these numbers will be part of forthcoming news casts on Channel 5.

This is a significant boost for the Dayton Campaign if the numbers hold during the election.

Minnesota is set to be the site of the highest per capita expenditure by vote in a non-Presidential campaign in the history of the nation. Overall spending the DFL Primary for governor is significant. The two millionaire candidates former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) are on a record spending spree. Based on current reports, our calculations show the projected cost per vote by Entenza will likely eclipse the amount spent by former Northwest Airlines head Al Checchi (D) in the California Gubernatorial Primary in 1998.

This year the California Primary continues to set record numbers. Gubernatorial Candidate Meg Whitman (R) spent $80,821,287.02 leading up to the June 8^th primary resulting in a cost of $54.15/vote, but her expenditure per vote remains below that of Cheechi. Cheechi spent $38,928,244 in his bid to be the Golden State’s Democratic Candidate, losing handily to Lt. Governor Gray Davis (D). As we learned from the California Secretary of State’s website, the money spent by Checchi, in this one race, “exceeded $34.1 million in combined total expenditures for all 100 primary election races for the California State Legislature – 20 State Senate races plus 80 State Assembly races – involving 313 major party candidates.” The primary results show Cheechi with only 20.8% of the vote or an expenditure of $57.37/vote. This is not a respectable ROI (Return on Investment), especially since he touted himself as a “New Democrat,” meaning fiscally conservative and socially progressive.

Based on current projections, Entenza is on a record pace set to approach 1.5 times what Checchi spent in his primary contest per vote. There are two key factors which will determine the final outcome, turnout and election result. As of May 01, 2010 the Minnesota Secretary of State’s Office accounts for 3,113,664 registered voters. If as many speculate the turnout for an August Primary is far below average then an expectation of 10% is likely. Based on the most recent poll published Entenza is polling at 17% with less than 311,366 voters expected to vote next Tuesday, his projected expenditures—based on current information—translates into $73.52/vote.

We feel comfortable in predicting ultimately, an even higher figure because these numbers will change in both parts of this formula. It is assured Entenza will spend more than has been reported since the last filing he has contributed an additional $1,070,000 to his campaign.

If the polling numbers square with the primary outcome or Entenza’s percentage of the vote is lower his cost/vote will increase. Correspondingly, should his percentage of the vote increase beyond projections the cost/vote will drop. We expect Entenza’s result will not surpass 20%.  The finally figures will remain unclear until ten day before the general election, when the next report is due.

Using the same formula Dayton is spending $21.29/vote based on the $2,651,086.99 accounted for in his last campaign finance report and a projected 40% base of support at the polls. Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) is projected to spent $7.35/vote with $686,687.01 expenditures reported in the last report and a 30% result represented in the latest poll.

When we scrutinized the campaign finance reports of the two millionaire candidates we saw an interesting difference in the way they reported their own contributions. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D) accounted for his $2,700,000 as a loan to his campaign while former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) incorporated his contribution as part of the individual contributions to his campaign.

Now we are unclear when Dayton expects to be reimbursed by his campaign and may be able to write off the interest payments, but as he has stated in the past he is a better contributor than he is a fundraiser. Dayton has raised a small amount of money outside of his personal wealth $156,160.24 and if he should prevail the amount is expected to increase. This accounts for only 5.26% of his total campaign receipts. If we extract the amount Entenza contributed to his campaign the individual contribution amount to $360,573.94 or 7.17% of total receipts. Many of the individual Dayton and Entenza contributions come from outside Minnesota.

Often times a campaign will seek a number of small donations to offset large contributions and then tout the number of financial supporters and an average donor amount. With such large contributions made by the principals in this case those numbers are irrelevant.

While House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) lacks a personal fortune and has based her campaign on traditional fundraiser efforts. Individual contributions account for $778,693.43 of the 992,066.42 raised or 78.49%.