The state’s future outlook is slightly improved over the projections announced in November. The forecast shows a $209 million projected change with $184 million in expenditure reductions and $25 million increases in revenues. The $184 million in expenditure reductions is largely offset by money from the federal stimulus and the increased revenue comes from corporate sales tax. We asked Minnesota Management and Budget Commissioner his thoughts on the budget improvements stemming from the federal stimulus Tom Hanson to which he said, “It’s nice to have more money.”

As is always one of our main concerns we inquired as to the impact the budget figures will have on the State’s Debt Capacity and were told we would be informed the figure later in the day. During the press conference State Economist Tom Stinson was asked about the start time of the Bonding Bill and he said, an early start was better and as we move closer to the start of the construction season it will be better to employ people so they can be paid and begin spending monies in their communities. As somewhat of a political counter Hanson emphasized the importance of Bonding projects which will have a longer-term impact than just the time of their construction.

Now we are waiting for the Republican response at 12:30 pm in room 181 of the State Office Building, the DFL response to the report at 1:00 pm, and Governor Tim Pawlenty's (R) response at 2:00 pm in his reception room.   

Yesterday’s vote to override Governor Tim Pawlenty’s (R) veto on General Assistance Medical Coverage (GAMC) was a risky decision by leadership in the House, which was destined to fail on sharp political grounds. With a veto-proof majority in the Senate the entire play focuses on the House on the shoulders of Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) and Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) and their abilities to influence Republican members to buck their governor. The proposition is doubtful at best.

The merits of the issue are far less important than the message sent out loud and clear, which is unity for Republicans. With 87 DFL votes it takes three Republican members to challenge and overcome Pawlenty’s action and since it has happened once in the last eight years the likelihood of this happening again is a very distant possibility. Ultimately, only Rep. Larry Howes (R-04B, Walker) was willing to stand with the DFL Majority.

Recent history shows the repercussions when the Republican members break ranks. When the Transportation Bill was overridden, all of the six members lost their leadership positions on their respective committees, a decision made by then Minority Leader Marty Seifert (R-21A, Marshall).  Of the four who swayed only two remain, Reps. Jim Abeler (R-48B, Anoka) and Rod Hamilton (R-22B, Mountain Lake). In his floor speech Abeler, asked the majority to hold off on the vote until after the February Revenue Forecast in case more money is projected into the future, but the plea fell on deaf ears.

The decision to push forward is seen by some as a stand by the majority on principle, but ultimately it is the win that matters and voting before the forecast is seen as more of a political vote getting Republicans on the record with a bad vote. If another vote occurs on Thursday after the state’s fiscal health is fully known the matter may once again fail because the state could have even less money than thought before.

The weight of the argument on fiscal grounds is failing to break through the politics. Sound fiscal policy is a hard prospect in an election year when every member seeking reelection views every vote as a factor in their own personal electoral outcome. The hypersensitivity is nearly palpable.  On the floor in his speech Sertich stated waiting until after the forecast would produce one of three results: learning more money exists, less money exists or about the same exists.

Taking the vote asked Republicans to have blind faith in the future and hope for a positive outcome. This is a possibility in the first year of the biennium, but not in the last year pending an election.   

Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) traveled to the third floor of the State Capitol yesterday to meet with members of the Republican House Caucus. He spent forty minutes discussing a range of issues with the membership, but mainly bolstering their support for his actions on legislation. As a former Majority Leader of the House Pawlenty knows how to lead those in power, but has no experience leading a team of underdogs and as a lame duck Governor he offers little in the way of support in November’s election.

We know little of what was said in the room, but upon his departure Rep. Larry Howes (R-04B, Walker) informed the room full of lobbyists assembled, he would not be casting another vote as he had done earlier in the day on the GMAC override. He is heard to have said, “Never again,” but that is the same line Sean Connory used when he retired from doing James Bond movies.         

When people look to Washington, D.C. they see the same situation there as they do here in Minnesota with one limited exception and that is the lack of a Chief Executive of the same political party. In Washington, Democrats have large legislative majorities just as they do here in Minnesota, but instead of President Barack Obama (D) holding the veto pen here, we see Governor Tim Pawlenty (R). The distinctive difference is quite stark and now maybe, just maybe Democrats across the state are regretting their lack of support for Attorney General Mike Hatch in 2006. We have argued at every opportunity the greater important to our state of the Chief Executive and not its U.S. Senator, which during elections the federal office gains, in our opinion far too much emphasis and attention.   

The current power differential becomes increasingly evident in issues we are seeing, like the Bonding Bill and support for GMAC. This then plays out in the endorsement battles in each party and later in the Primary Elections, but those are future contests and the problems facing our state stand front and center here today. This is where expectations, second guessing and Monday Morning Quarterbacking come to play.

 We know, there are criticisms mounting about the DFL House leadership’s and its ability to lead. The expectations for a big victory loom and DFL supporters want to see their side prevail again leading in the November’s elections. They want a tide to ride to victory in the fall with a run of the table, with a DFL Governor and continued DFL Majorities. If the DFL controls the corner office losses in the majority are mostly irrelevant.  Now, to be clear the legislative session is only four weeks old and resolution to the budget problems and the Bonding Bill still have a significant amount of time to play out, but politics is as  much about perception as it is reality. It is mainly about scoring points against ones opponent.

The scorecard is ready to be marked and those keeping score have their pencils sharpened. The pundits are all ready to make their opinions known and the spinmeisters are flexing their vocal chords. For those who think Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) has checked out, they had better be prepared for his return. He has too much at stake in his national aspirations to let his backyard get too messy.

After this weekend’s conventions slightly over half of the 1200 elected DFL delegates will be chosen. Better than a quarter of the delegates will be selected in the following districts: Aitkin, Blue Earth, Chisago, a portion of Goodhue, Isanti, Kandiyohi, Lac Qui Parle, CU 25 (Scott), SD05, SD37, SD39, SD43, SD46, SD47, SD58, SD59, SD60, SD61, SD63, SD66, Steele, Waseca, Winona, Yellow Medicine, Beltrami, Faribault, Freeborn and Mower. This accounts for 345 delegates or 28.75% of the 1,200.

As we are trying to frame our understanding of the horse race we are speaking regularly with each of the campaigns. People speculating on counts like the Minnesota Progressive Project are way off in their calculations and the analysis is skewed to the point one could speculate who their favorite candidate is. It would be good for those tabulating to learn the difference between a full and half delegate.

Here are our impressions, five of the candidates are over performing their precinct caucus straw poll numbers, two are underperforming, the uncommitted bloc is shrinking and two maybe even three candidates are completely irrelevant. The withdrawal of former Senator Steve Kelley (DFL) is a boon for the Rep. Paul Thissen (DFL-63A, Minneapolis), as we first stated in just after precinct caucuses. Thissen picked up some of Kelley’s staff and seems to be picking up the meager number of supporters along the way. So combining Thissen’s straw poll result of 7.20% with Kelley’s 4.14% seems plausible to experience head counters we confide in.

People associated with Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) are claiming a gain in support from many of the Uncommitted caucuses and performing a number of points better than her 20% showing in the Precinct Caucus Straw Poll. We hear, supporters believe 30% of the delegates is an attainable goal, especially with her holding the inside track on Super Delegates could make that a reality. From our viewpoint we can see the speaker climbing into the upper 20’s.

As the winner of the DFL Straw Poll, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak's (D) future will be significantly shaped by this weekend’s conventions. With all of the Senate Districts in Minneapolis holding their conventions he will get the best possible options for an additional boost beyond his 21.67% result in the straw poll. We expect he will be in the mid 20’s come Monday.

We still see signs of growing support for Sen. John Marty (DFL-54, Roseville). St. John is a purist and DFL delegates especially the extremists love an underdog. He is the single payer candidate and single of the right song sheet for the dogmatic zealots. We fully expect him to remain in third place on the first ballot of the DFL Convention. He too is moving ahead. We envision high teens for him.   

Rep. Tom Rukavina (DFL-05A, Virginia) is the little engine that could. What he lacks in stature he makes up in charm and enthusiasm. He is beyond a doubt the most likable candidate in the field, but as we have said before there is no prize for Miss Congeniality. We think Ruk will move into the middle teens after this weekend.

In spite of the pick-up of Dave Colling as Campaign Manager, it may be too late for former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (DFL) to make much of a dent. His poor performance in the Straw Poll reinforces the idea he lacks any base of support in the party. He would likely have gained more solid support if he would have committed to the DFL endorsement, but even deciding to put his toe into the pool is not enough of a commitment for most delegates. He will remain in single digits.

Sen. Tom Bakk (DFL-06-Cook) may have the right message on the state’s budget problems as a revenue problem, but he has yet to catch fire with the everyday activist. The support from the Building Trades unions may be of more significance with other with Education Minnesota yet to weigh in and AFSCME Council 5’s endorsement of former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (D), but people need to show up to fill a void. We are hearing only scattered reports and it appears Bakk will be fighting for numbers close to those of Entenza.

Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner (D) despite securing the endorsement of the Women’s Political Caucus will not be much of a factor and she will garner some token support, but not much in the way of numbers. Her decision to go to head to the DFL Primary gives many people a reason not to give her much time of day. We expect she will be turning her attention toward the Primary after she speaks to the DFL Convention and we will not be surprised if she requests her nomination to be withdrawn. If she remains on the ballot her numbers will be slightly better than the two irrelevant candidates Ole Savior and Felix Montez we believe they are really not worth mentioning, but it looks like we did anyhow.

If people would like our opinion on the easiest way to be elected as a delegate to the DFL State Convention we suggest calling a subcaucus for a Congressional candidate, even an incumbent. The delegates selected to the DFL Congressional District Conventions are the same delegates who attend the DFL State Convention. Caucusing for the election or reelection of a Congressional candidate means not preference need be made on the gubernatorial race. This way a person is committed to one candidates' election, just not a candidate the big fight underway. We call this strategy hiding in plain sight. 

Dave Colling returns to politics to become the Campaign Manager for Matt Entenza (DFL). Colling a veteran manager with DFL endorsement chops, Steve Miles for U.S. Senate in 2000 and Keith Ellison for Congress in 2006, leaves the private she sector to once again support Entenza. He was Entenza's principal staff person while the DFL held the minority.

Here is the campaign's release

Dave Colling Joins Entenza Team

Experienced Political Veteran to Manage DFL Gubernatorial Campaign

ST. PAUL, Minn. - Matt Entenza's campaign for governor has hired Dave Colling
as manager.

Colling, a 20-year veteran of races in Minnesota and Michigan joins Entenza's campaign effective February 22^nd, 2010.

Notably, Colling managed Keith Ellison’s 2006 congressional race in which Ellison became the first Muslim ever elected to congress. Colling managed the campaign during a tough multi-candidate primary and steered Ellison to victory through the primary and general. He also worked alongside Matt Entenza in 2004, helping the DFL make significant gains and nearly wining control of the Minnesota House. Most recently he was the national media consultant for a major firm.
 
"I'm excited to be with Matt again, and look forward to helping him through the DFL endorsement process and winning in November," Colling said. "I'm ecstatic to be able to work with someone who's a great candidate and will be a great governor."

Colling can be reached at the Entenza campaign office at 651-647-1425.

"I feel incredibly fortunate to have great people like Dave on my campaign
staff," said Entenza. "This is a challenging race with many good candidates.
Dave’s experience both in campaigns and in the private sector will be invaluable as we
continue to pursue the DFL endorsement and victory in 2010."

Matt Entenza’s campaign for governor of Minnesota is about growing the economy, creating jobs all over Minnesota by focusing on the potential of clean energy, and refocusing on education as the engine of future job creation and economic competitiveness. Entenza was a white-collar crime prosecutor prior to representing St. Paul in the Minnesota legislature for 12 years, including four years during which he also served as House Leader and led the DFL to significant gains. In 2007, Entenza founded Minnesota 2020, a think tank that has been an important voice for progressive policy positions and which he chaired until April 2009. Entenza is a graduate of Worthington High School in Worthington, Minn., Macalester College in St. Paul, and the University of Minnesota Law School.

The DFL majorities need to understand Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) doesn’t really look to government for much. Yes, he did want to create a legacy with Lake Vermillion State Park and now he wants a place to park Sex Offenders. Moose Lake is his answer for protection of our state, but largely he doesn’t see government as a solution to any problem. As he pares down the budget and helps a variety of programs “wither on the vine,” he is acting as a fiscal conservative.  

The construction of the Bonding Bill is an inductive process and one the Chief Executive is excluded from. Yes, he can propose, but the legislature disposes and if the legislative branch fails to include his priorities in the final bill he is only left to veto the entire bill or line item various projects.

Tonight, when the House meets to approve the Conference Committee report on House File 2700 followed by the Senate,  they will be given only one choice to approve the Conference Committee report. Then the body of origination, the House, will prepare the bill for presentation to the Governor. As long as the bill arrives prior to 7:59 am, the start of a legislative day, the Governor has three legislative days in which to act on the bill.

We feel fairly well assured Pawlenty will veto the entire bill. Since Moose Lake isn’t in the bill why would he want to veto a project in one community and support one in another community? He is in a better position to throw the whole bill out and claim it was too expensive and had the wrong priorities. He will call upon the legislature to start over; feeling fairly well assured that he will not be over ridden.

This strategy has worked well in the past except in the case of the increase in sales tax for transportation in 2008. Rolling the dice in this instance, even as a lame duck governor seems like a safe bet. We doubt House Republicans will be willing to maintain their support for capital spending even in their communities and take a significant political risk. If the bill is vetoed, House DFLers still need Republican votes in order to get to 90. So looks like three of these members could lose out: Reps. Jim Abeler (R-48B, Anoka) Paul Anderson (R-13B, Starbuck) Greg Davids (R-31B, Prescott), Larry Howes (R-04B, Walker), Morrie Lanning (R-09A, Moorehead) and Bud Nornes (R-10A, Fergus Falls).

The question is which three pull the short straw. We think since three are needed it behooves all of them to stay together in order to protect their collective interests and ensuring the survival of their own project.

We have been one of the few sources to focus on the Republican Party political activity in Dakota County. This morning's announcement by Sen. Pat Pariseau (R-37, Farmington) is not a surprise. We started paying attention to Dakota County politics long ago and in 2002 we were first to call attention to the internal party and then primary challenge by Judi Lindsay (R) to "moderate" Rep. Dennis Ozment (R). In 2006, we highlighted the internal party challenge to first term Rep. Pat Garofalo (R-36A, Farmington) and in both cases noted their hard shifts to the right. Last election, we were alone in noting the Republican Party mailing supporting bullet balloting for a specific Republican candidate for the Mendota Heights School District 197.

The history of Republican Party politics in Dakota County is quite storied. Many of the people stem from the 1990 Campaign of John Grunseth (R). Governor Tim Pawlenty (R), former State Auditor Pat Awada now Anderson, former Rep. Tim Commers (R), current Republican Party Tony Sutton and Deputy Chair Michael Brodkorb all hail or emanate from Dakota County.

Last month, the Republican National Committee accepted a watered down version of for a litmus or purity test for Republican candidates. As we have listened to the recent rhetoric there is less focus on the social agenda and more on fiscal issues. It seems like the social issues are to be assumed and the public face is one of Ronald Reaganlike fiscal responsibility. What was old is new again, which is ironic, because George W. Bush (R) was better at implementing the policies of Reagan than Reagan himself was able to.

We think there is a consolidation of "good" Republicans underway and those who fail to follow along will be ground-up in the mill. Ensuring candidates and officeholders "toe the line" is possible when there is a strong political party and not possible when the party is weak. In this case the Republican Party does have an iron fist while the DFL Party has more of a limp wrist. In politics on both sides it is easy to define an extreme agenda and make it palatable to those of like mind, but in the broader electorate the sale is far less easy.

Let's be clear party politics is a blood sport and not one for the weak of mind, spirit or commitment. If a purge is ongoing it will be interesting to see who is standing when the smoke clears. This is where the moderates are cast aside. Once they are gone their like rarely returns. Pariseau joins the likes of Martha Robertson, Dave Bishop, Peggy Leppik and Dennis Ozment. Now the question is will Sen. Debbie Johnson (R-49, Ham Lake) take the hard or the easy route?

Here is Pariseau's departure announcement:

After 21 Years Senator Pat Pariseau to Retire

St. Paul - State Senator Pat Pariseau (R - Farmington) will be stepping down as the Senator from the 36th district after serving seven terms in the Minnesota Senate. 

“I have been carefully considering my retirement for quite a while now and want to step aside to let a new voice represent my beloved Senate district in St. Paul,” said Senator Pariseau.

Minority Leader David Senjem said, “Senator Pariseau has been a model of tireless work and dedication in the Senate.  We will miss her legendary expertise and knowledge particularly in the areas of environmental resources, trapping, hunting, and fishing, legislation.

The Senate won't be the same without Senator Pariseau.  We will miss her greatly and wish her only the very best as she moves into what will undoubtedly be another active and contributing chapter of her life."

Senator Pariseau was first elected to the Minnesota Senate in 1988 in a special election.  She went on to win re-election six more times.

She is the ranking Republican member on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee and was a key player in the formation of the constitutional amendment giving Minnesotans the constitutional right to hunt and fish. 

A strong ally of the outdoorsman and farmers, Senator Pariseau was instrumental in work on many pieces of hunting and angling legislation including the creation of lifetime game, fishing, and trapping licenses in Minnesota, Minnesota’s concealed carry permit laws, bringing about the first dove hunting season in the state, trapper’s education requirements, and self protection and defense legislation. 

Senator Pariseau was also an early player in the movement to dedicate three sixteenths of existing sales tax money to hunting, fishing and habitat preservation.  Minnesotans passed a constitutional amendment which grew out of that movement two years ago when they passed the Lessard Heritage bill which raised a portion of new sales tax money and dedicated it to fund clean water, parks and trails, arts and cultural heritage.

A mother of six and widowed while in her sixth term in office, Senate Pariseau worked 6 years for United States Senator Rudy Boschwitz in his St. Paul office prior to beginning her work in the Minnesota Senate.

Pat Pariseau is serving her seventh term in the Minnesota State Senate.

 She encourages and appreciates constituent input, and can be reached a t 651-296-5252. By mail to 117 State Office Building, 100 Rev. Dr.

Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. St. Paul, MN  55115, or via e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it  

Here is the response for the Senate Republican Caucus coincidently sent out by Deputy Party Chair Michael Brodkorb:

STATEMENT FROM MINNESOTA SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADER ON SENATOR PAT PARISEAU’S DECISION TO RETIRE FROM THE MINNESOTA SENATE

(St. Paul) Minnesota Senate Republican Leader David Senjem

(R-Rochester) released the following statement regarding the decision by Senator Pat Pariseau (R-Farmington) to retire from the Minnesota Senate.

“Senator Pariseau is a model of tireless work and dedication in the Senate.  We will miss her expertise and knowledge particularly in the areas of environmental resources, trapping, hunting, and fishing legislation.

Outdoorsmen, hunters and fisherman all owe Senator Pariseau a debt of gratitude for her work on such efforts as the Minnesota’s constitutional right to hunt and fish, lifetime hunting and fishing licenses, advancements of personal protection laws and firearms safety, Minnesota’s first dove hunting season, and a vast array of common sense natural resources legislation.

As we have said from the onset this election will revolve around various events and this morning an event occurred. Rep. Marty Seifert (R-21A, Marshall) tapped Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah (R) as his pick for Lt. Governor. Checks & Balances readers may remember Sivarajah was the Campaign Manager for Rep. Phil Krinkie’s (R) unsuccessful bid for the 6^thMichele Bachmann (R-MN6).   Congressional District in 2006 where he lost to current Congresswoman

Sivarajah will help in Anoka County an important area for Republicans. As an eye pleasing conservative she may help erode support for Rep. Tom Emmer (R-19B, Delano) in the 6^thKrinkie and the Freedom Club. Congressional District. She also might be able to garner support from conservative groups like the Taxpayer’s League of Minnesota, headed coincidentally by

Many speculate Emmer will select a colleague Rep. Laura Brod (R-25B, New Prague). We will again note the current legal troubles for her brother and wonder how broad the implications of his bad choices will be.

We listened closely to House Speaker Rep. Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s (DFL-60A, Minneapolis) gubernatorial campaign announcement and got the impression she was entertaining the notion of stepping down as Speaker if she receives the DFL Party endorsement. We thought doing so during the legislative session could incur a great deal of chaos, just as the end game commences. Yesterday, we inquired as to her intentions regarding these potential occurrences and were personally assured; she will continue to serve no matter what transpires, until the end of the legislative session.

This means the DFL House election rests squarely on the shoulders of DFL House Majority Leader Tony Sertich (DFL-05B, Chisholm) and we will argue it always did. Kelliher is the Speaker of the House and is obligated to serve the institution, while Sertich leads and serves the majority members. Prior to the start of the legislative session we heard about talk about a possible battle for the job and people began speculating about potential challenges to Sertich’s ascension.

Some legislators made calls to their colleagues and some of the names we hear tossed about include: Reps. Joe Atkins (DFL-39B, Inver Grove Heights), Tina Liebling (DFL-30A, Rochester) and Al Juhnke (DFL-13A, Willmar). We spoke with Juhnke and he said he is supporting Sertich if all things stay the same or even if the DFL loses seats. To be fair we have yet to speak with either Atkins or Liebling and their thoughts may be in line with Juhnke’s.  With Kelliher’s departure the gender card may be in play, but likely Sertich will stand pat and the Majority Leader’s spot is where the battle will ensue. No matter who people speculate about we will be looking at who spends time outside of their own legislative district helping other House candidates raise money or on the campaign trail.

Even if Kelliher is endorsed and steps aside to focus on her gubernatorial race, Sertich may not call for an election and will serve as de facto until after the election. Some wonder if the electoral results will shape the leadership elections and we think it will. Firstly, if the DFL loses the majority, which we see as very unlikely, nearly a long shot, then the race is for minority leader and it’s doubtful Sertich runs in that case. But if the DFL loses a handful of seats, which in a non-Presidential year is likely, will there be enough justification to challenge someone who retained a majority, though not as large of one as 86 votes, doubtful. If the DFL picks up seats then a Sertich Speakership is assured. This is not one many speculate and neither do we, but as November beckons we may be willing to go out on a few limbs.

The list of who we are hearing interested in the second spot includes: Atkins, Liebling and Reps. Melissa Hortman (DFL-47A, Brooklyn Park), Steve Simon (DFL-44A, St. Louis Park), Al Junhke (DFL-13A, Willmar) and Deb Hilstrom (DFL-46B, Brooklyn Center) We think one of the best choices is someone not even putting their name forward and is often times over shadowed by his seat mate, and that is Rep. Rick Hansen (DFL-39A, South St. Paul). He understands many of the needs of his caucus and though not the most outspoken caucus member, he is definitely one of the most well-respected, hardworking and deliberative tacticians in the caucus.